Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
326 AM MDT Sat May 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...The low levels of the atmosphere remain moist this
morning even after the cold front that passed last night. A weak
shortwave combined with the moisture will cause showers to
continue across western Montana this morning before decreasing
quickly around noon. Daytime heating will cause more showers over
the mountains late this afternoon, but little precipitation is
expected in the valleys as the day time heating will be competing
with a weak ridge building over the are this after noon.

The next chance of rain will be Monday with a weak shortwave in
southwest flow ahead of a bigger system moving into the area for
Wednesday and Thursday.

Wednesday and Thursday have the potential to be the wettest,
strongest system the northern Rockies has seen for some time.
However, some forecast models predict it will split into two
weaker systems as it moves over Idaho and Montana. If this
happens, it will be much more like today with just light showers.

Next weekend will be cooler and more unsettled than this weekend
with a deep, slow moving trough progressing across the western US.

&&

.AVIATION...A plume of moisture is moving through the Northern
Rockies this morning causing an increase in showers and lowering
ceilings. The showers will be light, but should still reduce
visibilities. KMSO and KGPI have the best chance of experiencing a
shower during the morning hours. During the afternoon, the
atmosphere will become unstable enough for the redevelopment of
terrain based showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for
thunderstorms will be along the continental divide down into
southwest Montana.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

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