Wind Chill Watch 1, NWS Morristown, TN

Cherokee County, NC, Clay County, NC, Bledsoe County, TN, Blount County, TN, Campbell County, TN, Carter County, TN, Claiborne County, TN, Cocke County, TN, Greene County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Marion County, TN, Monroe County, TN, Morgan County, TN, Polk County, TN, Scott County, TN, Sequatchie County, TN, Sevier County, TN, Unicoi County, TN, City of Bristol, VA, City of Norton, VA, Lee County, VA, Russell County, VA, Scott County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wise County, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
512 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
TODAY AND WILL SWING THROUGH THIS EVEING. BITTER COLD AIR WILL PUSH
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AS SNOW SHOWERS LINGER IN THE NORTHEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
MONDAY.  WILL ISSUE A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE VALLEY AND PLATEAU
COUNTIES...AND WILL UPGRADE THE CURRENT WATCH TO A WARNING FOR SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS WISE
COUNTY VA.  THE WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO VERY LOW
WIND CHILL VALUES...AND APPEARS WE MAY BEGIN TO REACH WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE
PLATEAU...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHWEST NC...AND THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS
THAT WILL CARRY OVER INTO TUE.  A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE VALLEY AS EARLY AS MONDAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS IT
MAY BE BORDERLINE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...DEEP EASTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH RECORD LOWS IN
JEOPARDY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLDEST OF THE AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED BY THE
DENSE COLD AIRMASS WILL KEEP A HEALTHY WESTERLY WIND BLOWING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOWERING WIND CHILL VALUES TO AS LOW AS 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO IN THE VALLEY WITH VALUES AROUND 20 TO 30 BELOW IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE
AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WITH SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
VALLEY IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY RELATIVELY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WELCOME
WARMING TREND WHICH CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) HAS A LITTLE HIGHER LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY THAN USUAL WITH DIVERGENCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS A LITTLE STRONGER...MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WITH
DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SO TRIED TO KEEP POPS FOR RAIN LOW WHILE
INDICATING A TREND TOWARD HIGHER PROBABILITY. ONE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE IF LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DON'T WARM SUFFICIENTLY...SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET MAY
DEVELOP FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS
WELL AS SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             49  19  19   5  21 /  50 100  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  49  19  19   2  17 /  40 100  30  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       50  18  18   1  16 /  50 100  30  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              51  20  20   0  14 /  20 100  50  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CHEROKEE...CLAY.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CHEROKEE...CLAY.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS...JOHNSON...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
     SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...
     UNICOI.

     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BLEDSOE...BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
     CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...EAST POLK...
     JOHNSON...MARION...MORGAN...SCOTT TN...SEQUATCHIE...SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...
     SOUTHEAST MONROE...UNICOI.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
     TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...BRADLEY...CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...EAST
     POLK...GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...HANCOCK...HAWKINS...
     JEFFERSON...KNOX...LOUDON...MARION...MCMINN...MEIGS...
     MORGAN...NW BLOUNT...NORTH SEVIER...NORTHWEST CARTER...
     NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST GREENE...NORTHWEST MONROE...
     RHEA...ROANE...SCOTT TN...SEQUATCHIE...SULLIVAN...UNION...
     WASHINGTON TN...WEST POLK.

VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WISE.

     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...
     WASHINGTON...WISE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...
     WASHINGTON.

&&