Alert archive / Tennessee / Special Weather Statements in 2014

Special Weather Statement, NWS Morristown, TN

July 8, 2014Cocke County, Jefferson County, Tennessee

NWS Morristown, TN issued this special weather statement at Jul 8, 2014, 4:02 PM EDT for Cocke County, Jefferson County, Tennessee. It was in force for 58 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 8, 2014, 4:02 PM EDT (20:02 UTC)
Expired: Jul 8, 2014, 5:00 PM EDT
In force: 58 min
Issued by: NWS Morristown, TN

Counties Cocke County, TN, Jefferson County, TN

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 25 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 283 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 582 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -67 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1160 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 15 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -55 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -14 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 8, 2:55 PM EDT, 1 hour 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 8, 2:55 PM EDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...FRONTAL SYSTEM STILL SAGGING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA...AND DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
MOVING IN AS WELL.  LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY WET NEXT COUPLE OF PERIODS
AS THE AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
MENTIONED "WET" ABOVE...FLOODING THREAT NOT LOOKING THAT GREAT AS
PROGRESSIVE INITIAL PARTS OF SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH...THEN AS
FRONT SAGS INTO AREA RICHER MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH OR EAST OF THE
AREA.  SO A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR PRECIP...THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING WITH ADVANCING STRONG STORMS THAT MARCH ACROSS TO THE
EAST...THEN ALSO ANOTHER CHANCE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN
AXIS OF THE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

DEEP CONVECTION STRUGGLING FINALLY GETTING STARTED.  MLCAPE VALUES
GETTING PRETTY HIGH...SO STILL THINK SEVERE THREAT EXISTS. ALSO
WONDERING ABOUT HOW STRONG ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
FRONT MIGHT BE IF THEY MAKE THEIR WAY CLOSER TONIGHT...THINKING THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE OVERALL.

FOR TEMPERATURES KEEPING PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR MINS TONIGHT
AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF MAXES FOR WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERING THE
LIMITED SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH DECENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN MODEL HANDLING OF POSSIBLE WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AT BEST
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE STILL COULD HELP TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP THINGS PRECIP FREE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE
WEEKEND.  WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS
SUNDAY.  ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY
IN THE WEEK...SO CHANCE POPS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  86  68  89 /  60  60  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  71  83  66  87 /  60  50  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  84  65  88 /  70  30  20  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  82  61  85 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

GM/LW

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 8, 11:34 AM EDT, 4 hours 28 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1134 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-091545-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
1134 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEST TO EAST. DAMAGING WINDS
OF 60 MPH OR GREATER AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 8, 4:02 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
402 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

TNZ040-041-070-073-074-082100-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS TN-NORTHWEST COCKE TN-JEFFERSON TN-
NORTH SEVIER TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS TN-
402 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SEVIER...COCKE...AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM...

AT 400 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR NEW MARKET...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF SEVIERVILLE...WHICH WAS MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING
CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER
INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 8373 3594 8371 3599 8365 3603 8368
      3608 8368 3609 8366 3611 8367 3609 8364
      3611 8363 3606 8302 3579 8297 3577 8300
      3579 8308 3577 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 281DEG 32KT 3601 8361

DMG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Morristown, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 8, 2:34 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MRX	Anderson, Knox	56 min
Jul 8, 4:16 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	MRX	Greene, Sullivan, Unicoi, Washington	59 min
Jul 8, 4:25 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	MRX	Blount, Knox, Loudon	65 min
Jul 8, 4:30 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	MRX	Bradley, Hamilton	60 min
Jul 8, 4:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MRX	Sevier	57 min
Jul 8, 4:38 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MRX	Carter, Greene, Unicoi, Washington	67 min
Jul 8, 4:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MRX	Carter, Johnson, Sullivan	63 min
Jul 8, 4:48 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	MRX	McMinn, Monroe	42 min
Jul 8, 4:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MRX	Bradley, Hamilton, McMinn, Monroe, Polk	62 min
Jul 8, 5:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MRX	Blount, Sevier	49 min
Jul 8, 5:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MRX	Monroe, Polk	34 min
Jul 8, 7:15 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	MRX	Sequatchie	45 min
Jul 8, 5:30 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MRX	Cherokee, Clay	60 min
Jul 8, 6:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MRX	Cherokee, Clay	47 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Tennessee, 2014 Every special weather statement in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.