Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Morristown, TN

862 
WGUS74 KMRX 042234
FFSMRX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
634 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

TNC163-VAC191-520-042241-
/O.CAN.KMRX.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140904T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SULLIVAN TN-WASHINGTON VA-CITY OF BRISTOL VA-
634 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL SULLIVAN...SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF BRISTOL IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO 
POSE A THREAT. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND ACROSS LOW LYING 
AREAS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. PLEASE CONTINUE TO 
USE CAUTION AND GOOD JUDGMENT WHEN APPROACHING WATER COVERED 
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3665 8199 3658 8201 3654 8210 3655 8216
      3658 8220 3663 8216 3668 8209 3668 8203

$$

SR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
235 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
A MOIST AIR MASS AND MIDLEVEL SHEAR ZONE BETWEEN TWO RIDGES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH LITTLE PATTERN
CHANGE...WILL FOLLOW MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO
BE PERFORMING PRETTY WELL WITH THE PATTERN...AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN
RELIABLE IN DEPICTING AREAS OF AND TIMING OF CONVECTION. IT SHOWS
ONGOING PRECIP LINGERING IN NE SECTIONS UNTIL DISSIPATING AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT. AS WE SAW THIS
MORNING...PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO START THE DAY
IN MOST SPOTS. THE ONE DIFFERENCE IN THE NAM TOMORROW APPEARS TO BE
THAT THE 700 MB DEFORMATION/SHEAR ZONE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS BEING A BIT
MORE FAVORED FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS. STILL...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
GFS MOS HIGH TEMPS APPEAR TOO WARM TOMORROW...AND HAVE VERIFIED TOO
WARM THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO WILL UNDERCUT THEM BY SEVERAL DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE UNIMPRESSIVE...SO LOOKING
AT MAIN THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW WIL
SET UP OVER THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE AIRMASS DOES NOT YEILD
MUCH CHANGE IN THE WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. BUT DOES HAVE DRIER AIR ADVECTED IN THE
MIDLEVELS. THIS ALONG WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING...EXPECTING TO SEE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO WILL ONLY SEE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR A DAY OR TWO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT
BIG FEATURE MOVING INTO THE AREA IS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
IN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...SO SETTLED FOR CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  89  69  87 /  20  50  20  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  69  87  68  86 /  20  40  20  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  87  68  86 /  20  40  20  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  87  64  86 /  40  40  20  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DGS/JW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
402 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-050815-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
402 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO VERY
SLOW MOVEMENT. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS COULD OCCUR AS THE
STORMS REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. A FEW STORMS COULD POSSIBLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH
DAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE EXPECTED THREATS.