Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
559 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

COMPLICATED FCST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE WAKE LEFT
BEHIND CONVECTION WHICH HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER TDA AND ON THRU THIS
AFTN. AS AN UPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EWD
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TNGT THRU TMRW...IT WILL SHOVE A
LOW PRES CENTER AHEAD OF IT ACRS THE DAKOTAS AND THRU NRN MN. THE
WMFNT OF THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY THRU SWRN MN AS TEMPS HAVE HIT
THE LWR 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LWR 70S...WHILE THE REST OF THE
WFO MPX CWFA LANGUISHES WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LWR-MID 60S. WINDS HAVE REMAINED MAINLY SE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...HELPING FEED THE CONVERGENCE
IN ADVANCE OF THE WMFNT. THE STRONG FEED OF MOISTURE HAS HELPED
AID EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION GENERATION TDA...WITH SOME REPORTS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES TDA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME
CLEARING OUT IN SWRN MN...WHICH THE THINKING IS THAT IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR TO RELOAD THE ATMOS IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AT WHICH TIME ANY CAPPING
SHOULD BE BROKEN...THEN ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS LOOK TO DEVELOP
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THEN SHIFT EWD. MULTIPLE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS STILL INDICATE THAT OVER SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
CONTAINS THE HIGHEST HELICITIES...GREATEST INSTABILITY...AND
MODEST LAPSE RATES TO HINT THAT WEAK MIDLVL DISTURBANCES EVIDENT
IN WV IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SEVERAL SFC OUTFLOWS WILL COMBINE TO
RESTART CONVECTION THIS EVENING. BEST TIMING HAS ACTIVITY STARTING
IN W-CENTRAL MN THEN DRIVING ESE THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE
EVENING HRS. ONCE CONVECTION ENDS...THEN SLY WINDS BRINGING IN
WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO LOW STRATUS
AND POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE WARM
SECTOR PORTION OF THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM. GOING INTO THU...THE CDFNT
WILL SLOWLY MARCH ACRS MN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOME ISOLD- SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE DAY WITH THE
STRONGEST OF SAID STORMS TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING. OVERALL TIMING
WITH LACK OF INSOLATION SHOULD LIMIT STORM STRENGTH BUT DEPENDING
ON WHERE ANY LOW LEVEL JETTING CAN BE ESTABLISHED WOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLY ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE CDFNT...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S TO
W...DEWPOINTS WILL DROP OFF AND SKIES WILL STEADILY CLEAR
OUT...HELPING END THE PRECIPITATION FROM W TO E.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE RISING THRU LATE THIS
AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WMFNT. WHERE
TEMPS HAVE HIT THEIR HIGHS THIS AFTN...THOSE LOCATIONS WILL NOT
DROP OFF MUCH TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL
RISING...THOSE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY GOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SETTLE OUT IN THE UPR 60S TO
LWR 70S. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT TMRW...TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO MID-UPR
80S IN WRN WI WITH A LARGE RANGE OF MID 70S TO MID 80S IN MN. WITH
THE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 70S IN WRN WI...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
HIT THE LOW-MID 90S IN FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH THE SAME PROBLEM THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD ENDS WITH...WHEN WILL THE STRONG CAP BE BROKEN AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. BY 7 PM THURSDAY /START OF
THE LONG TERM/...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALREADY BE NEAR A ROCHESTER
TO LADYSMITH LINE...SO THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP
THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE NARROW. THE HIRES CAMS...ALONG WITH THE
ECMWF SHOW ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT DEVELOPING WHEN SAID FRONT IS
EAST OF THE MPX CWA. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM HAD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
FRONTAL PROGRESSION...ALLOWING FOR IT TO DEVELOP ACTIVITY EAST OF
AN ALBERT LEA TO RICE LAKE LINE. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED SOME
CHANCE POPS BETWEEN 00Z AND 6Z FRIDAY IN THE FAR ERN CWA...THOUGH
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION STILL LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE
MPX AREA. WHEREVER STORMS FORM...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD
SUGGEST WE WILL STILL HAVE A SEVERE THREAT WITH WHATEVER DEVELOPS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE WE GET A GOOD PUSH OF COOL/DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY ONLY TOPPING IN THE 60S AS H85 TEMPS
CRASH FROM ABOUT 20C ON THURSDAY /IN WRN WI/ TO BETWEEN 5C AND 10C
FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS COOLER AIR WILL
WANDER INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH WEST WINDS AND
WEAK WAA SETTING UP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
HIGHS BY SUNDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE WILL
SEE FRIDAY.

WE STILL LOOK TO TURN MORE ACTIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS SRN CANADA...WHICH WILL SEND
ANOTHER POWERFUL FALL FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. WAA WILL START OUT IN WRN MN SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS
WHEN POPS START TO APPEAR. WE WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST SRLY FLOW
MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR WAA PRECIP CONTINUING...UNTIL
POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PRECIP WORKS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THREAT OVER THESE DAYS DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...AS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GET
DRIVEN CLEAR DOWN TO THE GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...WE DO NOT LOOK TO HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO GET GULF MOISTURE
BACK UP TO MN BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS...WITH THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. THROUGH THE WHOLE
PERIOD...STILL HAVE MAINLY CHANCE POPS AS THERE IS ENOUGH SPREAD
IN TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIP IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO INSERT
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST TO KEEP THE POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY.

BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A TRULY FALL
AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
H85 TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO C IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. BY
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF ONLY HAS HIGH IN THE 50S WITH
STRONG WNW WINDS...A SIGN THE SEASONS ARE ABOUT TO START CHANGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WI SITES THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY KSTC/KMSP/KRNH/KEAU. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ACTIVITY.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WITH
DEGRADATION TO IFR CIGS AFTER SUNSET. IFR CONDITIONS LINGER
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVE...ALONG WITH A SHIFT TO GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.

KMSP...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KMSP FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE WINDOW FOR TS MAINLY BETWEEN 01Z AND
05Z. AFTER THAT...CIGS DECLINE TO AOB 1000FT FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH MVFR BR EXPECTED AS WELL. MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LIKELY NOT OCCURING UNTIL AFTER
18Z. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT VEER TO SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 00Z FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. SHRA/TS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AROUND/AFTER 21Z
THURSDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
123 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
041200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
123 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...SOME
STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY CAUSE ISOLATED FLOODING
AND SOME RISES ON MAINSTEM RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE THURSDAY IN EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
615 PM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MORA                    45.88N 93.29W
09/03/2014                   KANABEC            MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

TDK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
636 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

WIZ014-040000-
POLK-
636 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN POLK COUNTY THROUGH 700 PM CDT...

AT 634 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SIREN. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  FREDERIC.
  LEWIS.
  CLAM FALLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 4571 9214 4564 9214 4558 9216 4565 9254
      4572 9254 4573 9252 4573 9215
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 281DEG 36KT 4574 9249

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
650 PM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MORA                    45.88N 93.29W
09/03/2014                   KANABEC            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAGRE UPROOTED TREE DESTROYED A GARAGE. ANOTHER GARAGE
            SUSTAINDED TREE DAMAGE AS WELL.

&&

SPD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
654 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

MNZ044-045-052-040045-
ISANTI-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-
654 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER ISANTI...KANABEC AND MILLE LACS
COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

AT 651 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF MILACA...OR 18 MILES SOUTH OF ONAMIA.
THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MILACA.
  BOCK.
  OGILVIE.
  LEWIS LAKE.
  BRUNSWICK.
  BRAHAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 4589 9314 4568 9314 4567 9314 4573 9376
      4591 9374
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 274DEG 40KT 4581 9361

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
722 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

MNZ052-053-061-WIZ014-040115-
ANOKA-CHISAGO-ISANTI-POLK-
722 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER NORTHERN ANOKA...CHISAGO...ISANTI AND
POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

AT 720 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF CAMBRIDGE
TO 7 MILES NORTH OF ELK RIVER. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  STANCHFIELD.
  GRANDY.
  CAMBRIDGE.
  BODUM.
  RUSH CITY.
  RUSH CITY AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 4565 9287 4565 9274 4553 9274 4536 9297
      4538 9351 4554 9352 4570 9336 4567 9315
      4573 9314 4573 9285
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 273DEG 26KT 4567 9318 4542 9349