Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
555 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS TIMING OF CONVECTION AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A COUPLE OF WAVES LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.  THE INITIAL WAVE FIRED SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL MN EARLIER AND MOVED OFF INTO
WISCONSIN.  THE NEXT WAVE MOVING INTO ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...INITIATING SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN.  EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO LIFT
NORTHEAST WITH REDEVELOPMENT LIKELY INTO NORTH CENTRAL CWA 21Z-00Z
PERIOD...THEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN CWA AFTER 01Z OR SO.
SEVERE WEATHER A DEFINITE THREAT WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL LIKELY.
A IS TORNADO POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE CELL THAT DEVELOPS ALONG
SECONDARY WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
CWA EARLY IN EVENT. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE TO 3000
J/KG WITH LITTLE CAPPING INDICATED EAST OF ALEXANDRIA/BENSON.  DEEP
LAYER SHEAR 35-40 KTS ALSO MOVING INTO THAT REGION AS WELL...AHEAD
OF UPPER TROUGH. SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A LINE
AND COULD BECOME A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS INTO WESTERN WIS THIS
EVENING...WITH WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT INTO THE EVENING.

THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12Z...WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
INTO MONDAY.  LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER REDEVELOPING INTO SC MN
LATE AFTERNOON...AS DRIER DEWPOINT AIR SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST CWA DURING THE DAY. SHOULD SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE LOW-
MID 80S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH COOLER AIR WORKING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

THE MAIN TWEAKS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WERE TO
CONTINUE TO SHIFT PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTHWARD IN LINE WITH THE
TRENDS OF THE MODELS.

A RATHER BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS NOW PROGGED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN IN QUESTION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL LIKELY BE
DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION /NORTHERN MISSOURI/. CONFIDENCE
THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY DRY DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS THEREFORE INCREASING. HAVE RESTRICTED POPS
TO THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN MN FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD SHIFT EVEN FARTHER SOUTH WITH FUTURE
RUNS...BUT IT/S A GOOD START. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECLINES NOTABLY
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE 24.12Z ECMWF STILL ILLUSTRATING A FARTHER
NORTH TRACK TO THE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. IT THEREFORE SPREADS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
/INCLUDING THE GFS AND GEM/ KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONFINED TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN-IA BORDER. HAVE KEPT 20-40
POPS IN FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES IN THAT RANGE RESTRICTED TO SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEAR DRY OVERALL...BUT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ILLUSTRATE A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH TO SINK SOUTH FROM
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO INTO THE 1ST OF
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN MN. WILL CONTINUE THREAT OF
THUNDER AT KSTC FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...AND AT KMSP THROUGH 03Z. THEN
SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME CUMULUS FORMING INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING WEST WIND. SOME GUSTS 20-23KT
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST. OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THUNDER WILL
REMAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 06Z OR SO. MAY DEVELOP
STRATUS/FOG WITH FROPA. WILL MENTION THAT AT KEAU FOR NOW. THIS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 15Z WITH SOME CUMULUS AND SOME MID CLOUDS
REMAINING...BUT SHOULD BE VFR.

KMSP...SCT TSRA REMAINS AROUND THE METRO. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. WILL CONTINUE TEMP TREND THROUGH 03Z. WILL SEE
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER THAT WITH SW-W WINDS INCREASING
INTO MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...VFR. WINDS W 6-12 KTS.
TUE-THU...MAINLY VFR. WINDS N TO NE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1244 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
251745-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1244 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY BETWEEN 3 PM
AND 10 PM NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILMAR TO NEW RICHMOND. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO.

HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 90 AND 100 THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK... MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
727 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TORNADO          4 W GRANITE LEDGE       45.80N 93.95W
08/24/2014                   BENTON             MN   PUBLIC

            TORNADO DAMAGE WAS REPORTED BY A TRAINED
            SPOTTER A QUARTER MILE EAST OF COUNTY RD 22
            AND 155TH AVE. NUMEROUS TREES WERE DOWN,
            WINDOWS WERE BLOWN OUT OF BUILDINGS AND
            CARS, AND A ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF OF A BARN.

&&

ADL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
743 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     HAIL             7 S HILLMAN             45.91N 93.89W
08/24/2014  M2.00 INCH       MORRISON           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 2.2 INCH DIAMETER
            HAIL 7.5 MILES SOUTH OF HILLMAN.

&&

ADL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
800 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

MNZ044-045-250130-
KANABEC-MILLE LACS-
800 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...HEAVY RAIN OVER KANABEC AND MILLE LACS COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 830 PM CDT...

AT 757 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES EAST OF ONAMIA. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WAHKON.
  ISLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 11PM CDT.

&&

LAT...LON 4625 9344 4624 9342 4616 9341 4616 9306
      4609 9305 4594 9373 4621 9368 4625 9358
      4626 9346
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 227DEG 26KT 4611 9348

JRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
818 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             ROYALTON                45.83N 94.29W
08/24/2014  E0.50 INCH       MORRISON           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME-SIZED HAIL REPORTED. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

JPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
824 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             PIERZ                   45.98N 94.10W
08/24/2014  E0.50 INCH       MORRISON           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME-SIZED HAIL REPORTED. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

JPC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
830 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

MNZ061-250215-
ANOKA-
830 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER ANOKA COUNTY THROUGH 915 PM CDT...

AT 828 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF COON RAPIDS. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ANDOVER.
  HAM LAKE.
  EAST BETHEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4526 9302 4513 9322 4526 9340 4541 9324
      4541 9321 4541 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 222DEG 24KT 4524 9325