Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND APPROACHING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS SNUCK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SEVERAL OF THE CAMS MODELS INDICATE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SAG SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN
CONCERT WITH THE H85-H7 THICKNESS CONTOURS...AND GENERALLY AFFECT
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY TO THE
SOUTH. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY QUITE A BIT OF
LIGHTNING...HAIL PRIMARILY DIME-SIZED OR LESS...AND OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. HAVE ALSO SEEN RAINFALL REPORTS OF AROUND ONE HALF
INCH IN AS LITTLE AS 20 MINUTES...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN PWAT
VALUES ARE RUNNING AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL /1.5+ INCHES/.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO WORRY
ABOUT STRATUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG. AFTER THIS FIRST SURGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MARCHES ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WI THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE SCOURING OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS
WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MIXING POTENTIAL TO AROUND 875MB CORRELATED WITH TEMPS
CIRCA 23C. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 90 DEGREES
DOWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN ALONG INTERSTATE 90. DUE TO MORE LIMITED
DIURNAL WARMING FARTHER NORTH THIS MORNING PRIOR TO THE FROPA...HAVE
LEANED A TAD MORE TOWARD THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF TEMPS WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S FROM WILLMAR TO THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE...AND LOWER
80S IN THE NORTHWEST NEAR ALEXANDRIA WHERE FRONT WILL ARRIVE SOONER.

THE SECOND ROUND OF /STRONGER/ CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE
POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MN TO NEAR EAU
CLAIRE AT 21Z. THEREFORE IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE MPX
CWA WILL ESCAPE AN AFTERNOON/EVE ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF A FAIRMONT TO RED WING AND
LADYSMITH LINE...WITH EAU CLAIRE APPEARING TO BE THE LOCALE MOST AT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN OUR AREA. SAID THREAT WOULD BE IN THE
WINDOW OF TIME GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 7 PM...WITH
HAIL...WINDS...AND TORNADOES APPEARING POSSIBLE.

STORMS AND CLOUDS QUICKLY SCATTER OUT THIS EVE AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS DIMINISH...TO BRING A FAIRLY TRANQUIL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER
AIR...AND ASSOCIATED SHRTWV...THAT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MORE SHRA/TSRA. THIS SHOULD BE THE BEST TIME FRAME IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE SFC WILL CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE. THE UPPER FLOW THRU
MIDWEEK WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE COOLER
TEMPS. BY THE LADDER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE U.S. WITH AN INCREASE CHC OF A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH...THERE IS A LESS CHANCE OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND WILL
LIKELY HOLD NEAR THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES WILL SPILL OVER THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER TEMPS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME THE
BATTLE BETWEEN THE TWO AIR MASSES WILL LEAD TO CHC/S OF
PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION AS TEMPS INCREASE NOT ONLY AT THE
SFC...BUT ALOFT...AN INCREASING CAP WILL BE PRESENT. SO MOST OF
THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE NOCTURNAL AND ALONG THE
CAPPING INVERSION. SO CHALLENGES WILL DEVELOP ON WHERE THIS
CAPPING INVERSION DEVELOPS.

SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND. BUT THIS IS NOT CONDUCIVE WITH THE UPPER
FLOW...UNLESS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

IFR LEVEL CLOUDS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WANE AS IT PROGRESSES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SHOULD SEE SCOURING OF THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS...AND THEN REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN AREAS /KRNH-KEAU/ THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES...THEN GUST TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SKIES CLEAR THIS
EVE AND WINDS DECREASE TO AOB 5 KTS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER 09Z TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT AT BAY.

KMSP...
WILL SEE A FEW-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE
A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL JUST MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN.
IFR TO EVEN LIFR CIGS SHOULD SHOW IMPROVEMENT BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z...WITH VFR EXPECTED AFTER THAT. AFTERNOON TS REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF KMSP. SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BY 18Z...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 22 KTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEAR AFTER 00Z AND WINDS
DECREASE BELOW 5 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY...VFR. CHC AFTERNOON SHRA/TS AND MVFR. WINDS WEST 5-15 KTS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
422 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
070930-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
422 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY. THE
FIRST ROUND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO
AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...SCATTERING OF
LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AND HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE. THIS WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO WARM TO BETWEEN 90 AND
95 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

THE DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FROM SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE...MAINLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM...GENERALLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THERE WOULD BE A SLIGHT RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS A MINIMAL TORNADO THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
227 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

MNZ041>043-060815-
DOUGLAS-MORRISON-TODD-
227 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO DOUGLAS...TODD AND MORRISON COUNTIES
THROUGH 315 AM CDT...

AT 220 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF BRAINERD...TO EAST OF STAPLES...TO
NORTH OF LAKE OSAKIS. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40
MPH...AND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF DOUGLAS...TODD...AND NORTHWEST
MORRISON COUNTIES BETWEEN 230 AM CDT AND 330 AM.

IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE...WINDS UP TO 50
MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. ISOLATED
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE A QUICK HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IN AS LITTLE
AS 30 MINUTES.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  CLARISSA.
  CLOTHO.
  BROWERVILLE.
  CUSHING.
  LONG PRAIRIE AIRPORT.
  RANDALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND
TREE LIMBS. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4631 9455 4634 9443 4630 9435 4627 9433
      4623 9438 4616 9436 4617 9384 4614 9382
      4579 9466 4605 9531 4636 9466
TIME...MOT...LOC 0722Z 297DEG 36KT 4665 9428 4633 9451
          4606 9508

LS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
249 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

MNZ041-060830-
DOUGLAS-
249 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY THROUGH 330 AM
CDT...

AT 246 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF BATTLE LAKE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE...WINDS UP TO 50
MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STRONG STORM.
ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE A QUICK HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IN AS
LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MELBY.
  BRANDON.
  MILLERVILLE.
  LEAF VALLEY.
  LAKE CARLOS STATE PARK.
  MILTONA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND
TREE LIMBS. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4611 9564 4612 9531 4609 9516 4577 9516
      4600 9578 4608 9579 4611 9578 4612 9576
      4612 9565
TIME...MOT...LOC 0749Z 276DEG 33KT 4613 9566

LS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
407 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

MNZ041-043-047>049-061100-
DOUGLAS-MORRISON-POPE-STEARNS-STEVENS-
407 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS DOUGLAS...MORRISON...POPE...STEARNS
AND STEVENS COUNTIES THROUGH 600 AM CDT...

AT 403 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE...WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STRONG
STORMS. ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE A QUICK HALF INCH OF
RAINFALL IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  SAUK CENTRE AIRPORT.
  LAKE HATTIE.
  MELROSE.
  NEW MUNICH.
  LOWRY.
  LAKE EMILY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND
TREE LIMBS. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4575 9626 4577 9578 4608 9579 4612 9571
      4611 9515 4577 9514 4578 9464 4601 9464
      4600 9463 4578 9463 4541 9457 4543 9624
TIME...MOT...LOC 0905Z 304DEG 42KT 4569 9497 4583 9585

LS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
417 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

MNZ041>043-047>049-061115-
DOUGLAS-MORRISON-POPE-STEARNS-STEVENS-TODD-
417 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS DOUGLAS...MORRISON...POPE...
STEARNS...STEVENS AND TODD COUNTIES THROUGH 615 AM CDT...

AT 413 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS WERE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE...WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STRONG
STORMS. ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE A QUICK HALF INCH OF
RAINFALL IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  MEIRE GROVE.
  NEW MUNICH.
  GROVE LAKE.
  LAKE EMILY.
  PADUA.
  SPRING HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES
AND...TREE LIMBS. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4636 9467 4578 9463 4541 9457 4543 9624
      4575 9626 4577 9578 4608 9579 4612 9571
      4611 9515 4637 9514
TIME...MOT...LOC 0916Z 304DEG 42KT 4562 9482 4576 9570

LS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
535 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

MNZ048-055>058-061130-
CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-POPE-SWIFT-
535 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM POPE AND SWIFT COUNTIES INTO
CHIPPEWA...KANDIYOHI...AND MEEKER COUNTIES..THROUGH 630 AM CDT...

AT 530 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF MONSON
LAKE STATE PARK TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF BENSON. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
ALSO OCCUR.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  DE GRAFF.
  MONSON LAKE STATE PARK.
  NORWAY LAKE.
  SIBLEY STATE PARK.
  PENNOCK.
  NEW LONDON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES... AND
TREE LIMBS. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4552 9521 4549 9513 4542 9513 4541 9495
      4513 9427 4491 9462 4489 9521 4516 9574
TIME...MOT...LOC 1032Z 305DEG 37KT 4540 9519 4517 9553

LS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
750 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

MNZ049-059-061315-
STEARNS-WRIGHT-
750 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

...THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST STEARNS AND INTO NORTHWEST
WRIGHT COUNTIES THROUGH 815 AM CDT...

AT 748 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF ST CLOUD. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ST AUGUSTA.
  FAIRHAVEN.
  CLEARWATER.
  HASTY.
  LAKE MARIA STATE PARK.
  MONTICELLO.

LAT...LON 4545 9408 4540 9402 4540 9399 4538 9395
      4538 9391 4534 9387 4533 9383 4530 9379
      4517 9388 4539 9438 4550 9428
TIME...MOT...LOC 1250Z 293DEG 37KT 4539 9421