Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
116 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY FILL WITH TIME. WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARLY CO-LOCATED
WITH THE 850-300MB THICKNESS RIDGE...WHICH REACHES THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. WE THINK THE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE NOSE OF THE 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY
WILL COME ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI. OUR QPF IS PROBABLY
OVERDONE ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IF YOU
BUY INTO SOME OF THE NEW 09Z MESO-MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND
HOPWRF /HOPWRF.INFO/. THEY HAVE VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. EVENTUALLY THE THICKNESS RIDGE SAGS SOUTHEAST AND WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP OVER FAR SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SO...AFTER THIS
FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP MOVES THROUGH THERE SHOULD BE A LAG IN THE
PRECIP OVER MUCH OF MN IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BEFORE
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. THIS SECOND ROUND IS MUCH MORE
CONDITIONAL AND WE'RE NOT TOTALLY SURE WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SET UP. IT COULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED HINGES HEAVILY ON A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL EJECT OUT FROM THAT
LOW...AND THE NORTHERN STREAM TO ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IF THINGS
PAN OUT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE UPCOMING PERIOD WILL BE DRY FOR
THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE RAIN REMAINS FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
WILL ROTATE EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT MIXING SHOULD BRING TEMPS NEAR 80F ON
TUESDAY. A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE THOUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL SPIN OFF OF THIS VORTICITY
MAX...AND BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS VERY LOW...BUT
EVENTUALLY THIS WAVE WILL KICK OUT AND MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THE 20POPS IN THE EXTENDED ARE A REFLECTION OF THIS
POTENTIAL...AND UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

BAND OF SHRA/ISO TSRA SLOWLY WORKING EAST WITH LLJ THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR HAS NOT BEEN BAD WITH TIMING THIS PRECIP...THOUGH WITH
ACTIVITY STILL BUILDING BACK SW INTO THE LLJ...MAY NEED TO DELAY
END OF PRECIP A BIT MORE FOR MSP/RNH/EAU. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
CIG FORECAST AWAY FROM THE GFSLAMP AND MORE TOWARD THE
RAP/HRRR...THOUGH THIS MAY HAVE RESULTED IN TAFS THAT WERE A
LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR. BASED ON THE HRRR
AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS..ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK UNLIKELY...SO STARTED TO DOWNPLAY THAT
IN TAFS. FOR WINDS...PRES GRADIENT OUT IN WEST CENTRAL MN IS QUITE
TIGHT...SO DO EXPECT GUSTS UP NEAR 35 KTS AT AXN THROUGH 21Z
BEFORE SFC LOW NEAR ABR STARTS TO FILL IN.

KMSP...BASED ON BACK BUILDING OF RETURNS TO THE SW...WE MAY HAVE
TO PUSH ENDING OF PRECIP BACK A COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL THE LLJ
CLEARS US OFF TO THE EAST. LESS CONFIDENCE WITH CIG FORECAST.
GFSLAMP CONTINUES TO BE WAY TOO MOIST WITH THE LOW LEVELS...SO
IT/S SO CONTINUED TO SHY AWAY FROM GOING THAT ROUTE. FOLLOWED
MORE THE TREND OF THE HRRR...BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT QUICK IN GOING
BACK TO VFR. HEIGHTS TO THE SW OF THE PRECIP HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 015
AND 025...SO EXPECT CIGS TO PRIMARILY REMAIN ABOVE 015. LOOKS
UNLIKELY FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WITH THE COLD FROPA...WITH FEW
WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLF/JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1213 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
201715-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1213 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS
COULD HAVE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
853 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0849 AM     HAIL             RENVILLE                44.79N 95.21W
05/19/2014  M0.75 INCH       RENVILLE           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AJZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
905 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 AM     HAIL             6 N DANUBE              44.88N 95.10W
05/19/2014  M0.50 INCH       RENVILLE           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AJZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1050 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1046 AM     HAIL             KIMBALL                 45.31N 94.30W
05/19/2014  M1.00 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL OF MAINLY LESSER SIZE,COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

AJZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1232 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

MNZ053-060>063-066-068>070-WIZ014-023-191830-
ANOKA-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-MCLEOD-POLK-RAMSEY-SCOTT-ST.
CROIX-WASHINGTON-
1232 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

...HEAVY RAIN OVER EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND MOVING INTO WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

AT 1224 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FOREST
LAKE TO ROSEVILLE TO 4 MILES WEST OF WACONIA. THESE STORMS WERE
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  DEEPHAVEN.
  FARMINGTON.
  MINNEAPOLIS.
  ST PAUL.
  HIGHLAND PARK.
  STAR PRAIRIE.
  OSCEOLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH IN AN HOUR ARE
POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2 PM. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4524 9219 4495 9245 4475 9327 4484 9409
      4505 9328 4531 9291
TIME...MOT...LOC 1728Z 279DEG 30KT 4523 9285 4503 9313
          4485 9383

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
106 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SAINT JOSEPH            45.57N 94.32W
05/19/2014  E1.75 INCH       STEARNS            MN   PUBLIC

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 4 HOURS

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
153 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

MNZ053-059>063-068>070-078-WIZ014-023-024-191945-
ANOKA-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RAMSEY-
SCOTT-ST. CROIX-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT-
153 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

...HEAVY RAIN OVER EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...

AT 147 PM CDT...HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
METRO AREA...NEAR BLOOMINGTON AND ST PAUL...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF INCLUDE...
  MENDOTA HEIGHTS.
  ST PAUL.
  BLOOMINGTON.
  EDINA.
  EAGAN.
  NEWPORT.
  WOODBURY.
  LAKE ELMO AIRPORT.
  AFTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE
FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND
PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4525 9350 4534 9217 4462 9217 4461 9370
      4499 9375
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 269DEG 34KT 4489 9314

DWE