Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
700 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
CURRENT LINE OF STORMS IS THE FIRST OF TWO LINES EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WIND AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AND
THE SECOND LINE WILL ALSO HAVE A TORNADO POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY FOR
STORMS THAT REMAIN NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN MN.

THERE HAS BEEN MODERATE INCREASES IN SBCAPE AND MLCAPE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR IN FAR SOUTHERN MN OVER THE PAST 2-3
HOURS WITH THE 1000-1500 J/KG NOW BEING OBSERVED. NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THERE REMAINS A SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT. THE WIND THREAT
WAS SOMEWHAT UNEXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF SURFACE ROOTED
STORMS...BUT THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY ABOVE THE SURFACE BASED CIN
IS OBVIOUSLY ENOUGH TO OVERCOME AND WE ARE GETTING WINDS OF 40-70
MPH DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED LINES AND BOWING
SEGMENTS. THIS THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR
WEST CENTRAL WI ESPECIALLY FOR CONVECTIVE LINES THAT ARE
PERPENDICULAR TO SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS. DRYING IN THE WATER VAPOR NOW ENTERING FAR SOUTHWEST MN AND
WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL...WINDS AND EVEN TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. THE STRONG
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT...BUT SURFACE
HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND CLOUD COVER.
NONETHELESS...THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS WILL HAVE HIGHER END
POTENTIAL AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

THE LONGER TERM CONTINUES TO POSE SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT ISSUES WITH THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH DURING THE
PERIOD.

INITIALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  STILL CONSTITUTES
HIGHER CHANCE POPS AT THE MOMENT. AFTER THAT...THE LONGER TERM
MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA
INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS GRADUALLY MERGING AND LIFTING A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH/SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY
MIDWEEK.  THIS COULD INCLUDE THE THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL.  WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS TREND COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
50S AND LOWS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FROST FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 06Z...AND WILL COME TO AN END AT
MOST TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AFTER
A BREAK BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS.

KMSP...

THE AIRPORT WILL BE DODGING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. WE
DON'T EXPECT ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE BACK EDGE OF THOSE
STORMS 80 MILES TO THE WEST. WE HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
1500FT CEILINGS OR LOWER FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE TOMORROW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WINDS SSE 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS SW TO NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1231 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
091745-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1231 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...INCLUDING EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE THERE IS A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
744 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N BAY CITY            44.65N 92.45W
05/08/2014                   PIERCE             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT
            A FEW TREES DOWN

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
801 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     TORNADO          6 WSW LAKE CRYSTAL      44.09N 94.33W
05/08/2014                   BLUE EARTH         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND NEAR THE TRI-COUNTY LINE.
            SPOTTER REPORTED BRIEF TOUCH DOWN IN WATONWAN COUNTY THEN
            LIFTED OVER 100TH ST AND THE BROWN COUNTY LINE AND THEN
            BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN AGAIN. IN BOTH CASES IT TOUCHED DOWN
            IN OPEN FARM FIELDS IN BOTH COUNTIES.
&&

IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
813 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     TORNADO          4 NW GAYLORD            44.60N 94.28W
05/08/2014                   SIBLEY             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
815 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     HAIL             4 NW WINTHROP           44.58N 94.42W
05/08/2014  E1.75 INCH       SIBLEY             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
824 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             6 SSE STEWART           44.65N 94.44W
05/08/2014  E1.00 INCH       MCLEOD             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
838 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

MNZ051-052-059>061-066>069-090245-
ANOKA-CARVER-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-MCLEOD-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-WRIGHT-
838 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING OVER ANOKA...CARVER...HENNEPIN...ISANTI...
MCLEOD...SCOTT...SHERBURNE...SIBLEY AND WRIGHT COUNTIES THROUGH 945
PM CDT...

AT 837 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST OF ELK RIVER
TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BUFFALO TO 5 MILES NORTH OF WACONIA TO 6
MILES WEST OF WACONIA TO 10 MILES WEST OF MN VALLEY STATE REC AREA.
THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  NORWOOD/YOUNG AMERICA.
  SAND DUNES STATE FOREST.
  OTSEGO.
  ZIMMERMAN.
  MEDINA.
  NOWTHEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4566 9316 4534 9320 4518 9330 4508 9338
      4484 9343 4453 9406 4477 9402 4487 9394
      4503 9384 4535 9381
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 235DEG 27KT 4532 9371 4509 9372
          4493 9381 4483 9390 4468 9391

JRB