Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Mobile, AL

400 
WWUS54 KMOB 071021
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
521 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014

ALC013-071031-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SV.W.0035.000000T0000Z-140407T1100Z/
BUTLER AL-
521 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTY...

AT 520 AM CDT...THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN
BUTLER COUNTY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY...THUS THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL (800) 284-9059.

ALTHOUGH THIS WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP REQUIRING NEW WARNINGS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3196 8661 3180 8690 3194 8691 3196 8688
      3197 8674 3197 8661
TIME...MOT...LOC 1021Z 228DEG 54KT 3212 8657

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
442 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY...A PIECE OF
ENERGY IN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS COMES UP AGAINST AN UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...TAKING A NORTHEAST TRACK TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. IT'S ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE MISS
DELTA REGION...HEADS TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...DEEPENING AS
IT GOES. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW (WITH 88D VWP ADVERTISING 50-55KTS IN
THE LOW LEVELS ATTM). A SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS WORKED IT'S WAY NORTH
ACROSS THE FA AS I TYPE...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE FA AND DEWPOINTS NOT MUCH LESS. THIS IS LEADING TO A
VERY JUICY...UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE FA AT THE START OF THE CURRENT
PACKAGE.

THROUGH TODAY...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE FA. WITH CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG AND
HELICITIES OF 200 M^2/S^2 PLUS...SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE IS A GIVEN. WIND SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
DISCRETE CELLS BECOMING SEVERE AS APPOSED TO A LINE TYPE SYSTEM.

RADAR RAIN TOTALS OVER THE LAST 24-36 HOURS ARE IN THE 3-4.5" RANGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS BEING
CONTINUED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS A RESULT.

TONIGHT...THINGS SETTLE DOWN A BIT AS POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE MOVES
OVER THE FA. TEMPS 10-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING
CURRENTLY WILL MOVE OVER THE FA.

TUESDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS
IT HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTAINING TODAY'S WEATHER MAKER MOVES OVER THE FA. STRONG WRAP-
AROUND STRATUS IS PUSHED ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY...BRINGING MAINLY
LIGHT SHRA TO THE FA AS THE COLD SURGE PASSES EAST OVER THE FA. TEMPS
COOL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TODAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FROM OVER
THE ROCKIES TO OVER THE PLAINS...PUSHING A SURFACE RIDGE EAST FROM
OVER THE PLAINS TO OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. SKIES CLEAR OUT OVER
THE FA AS THE COLD SURGE EASES AND TEMPS DROP EVEN FURTHER...TO ABUT
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNEDAY NIGHT ON)...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS
AS A LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGE GETS PUSHED EAST...TO OFF THE EAST
COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY INT HE
COMING WEEK...HELPING TO BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST. TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED FRIDAY ON.

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM EAST TEXAS
TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THIS BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW LEADING TO A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  50  67  46  69 / 100  10  40  10  05
PENSACOLA   76  52  69  48  68 / 100  30  40  10  05
DESTIN      74  54  68  51  69 /  80  50  40  10  05
EVERGREEN   77  47  68  46  67 / 100  20  40  20  05
WAYNESBORO  73  47  66  43  67 /  70  10  40  10  05
CAMDEN      76  46  68  45  67 / 100  10  40  20  05
CRESTVIEW   77  50  71  46  69 /  80  40  30  20  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
707 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-071215-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
707 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO HIGH ALONG THE BEACHES OF
ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES AND
SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY RECEIVING 6 INCHES OR MORE. THIS HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WILL BRING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG MANY AREA
RIVERS.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES. PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SQUALL LINE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE AREA BEACHES
MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES
THROUGH THE DAY.

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...LEADING TO A CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING. FLOODING ALONG AREA RIVERS WILL ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 MONDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS
MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-071215-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
707 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
CONTINUED HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1252 AM CDT MON APR 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W DEAS                32.22N 88.15W
04/06/2014                   CHOCTAW            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CHOCTAW COUNTY EMA REPORTS THAT HIGHWAY 156 IN NORTHERN
            CHOCTAW COUNTY WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

CL