Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
720 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

...TORNADO WATCH 65 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE TORNADO WATCH FOR
OUR ENTIRE AREA INCLUDING ADJACENT BAYS. UPDATED ZONES AND COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST OUT SOON.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT CURRENT NEAR/ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IS SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD. WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IS MOVING INLAND
GRADUALLY. LOCAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY
PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADO-PRODUCING MESOCYCLONES...SOME OF
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES UP TO EF-2 INTENSITY. ONE MAIN
AREA OF CONCERN FOR ISOLATED TORNADO OCCURRENCE IS WEST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING (ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI). THE
LATTER IS WHERE TORNADOES WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP BEFORE THE THREAT
SHIFTS MOVING FURTHER EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TONIGHT AND IT TOO WILL
CONTAIN EMBEDDED TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS (AND LARGE HAIL)
ASSOCIATED WITH BOW ECHOES. AT THIS TIME...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THE SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES
AROUND SUNRISE AND STILL BE WEST OF THE I-65 BY MID MORNING. THE
THUNDERSTORM LINE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE THREAT SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY MID AFTERNOON
INCLUDING POINTS AS FAR EAST AS GREENVILLE TO DESTIN.

FINALLY...THE FLASH FLOODING RISK IS VERY HIGH ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR (ESPECIALLY) WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE FALLEN SINCE LAST
EVENING. AS STORMS DEVELOP AND REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION
EXPECT 6" OR MORE OF WATER TO FLOW ACROSS THE ROADS AND POSSIBLE ROAD
CLOSURES. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. /23 JMM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
707 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-071215-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
707 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO HIGH ALONG THE BEACHES OF
ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES AND
SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY RECEIVING 6 INCHES OR MORE. THIS HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WILL BRING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG MANY AREA
RIVERS.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES. PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SQUALL LINE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE AREA BEACHES
MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES
THROUGH THE DAY.

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...LEADING TO A CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING. FLOODING ALONG AREA RIVERS WILL ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 MONDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS
MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-071215-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
707 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
CONTINUED HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.