Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Mobile, AL

913 
WWUS54 KMOB 222057
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
357 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

ALC041-222108-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SV.W.0109.000000T0000Z-140622T2115Z/
CRENSHAW AL-
357 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN
CRENSHAW COUNTY...

AT 354 PM CDT...THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING FOR NORTHERN
CRENSHAW COUNTY HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THUS THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3170 8622 3192 8645 3196 8645 3197 8641
      3205 8640 3206 8633 3205 8629 3197 8629
      3197 8619 3196 8618 3189 8617 3180 8620
      3179 8616
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 299DEG 8KT 3193 8629

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
455 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2
INCHES WILL CREATE A BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
INSTABILITY DECREASES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO FAVOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. DUE TO THE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER...UPPER
80S AND LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S INLAND
TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON'S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD
PLACING OUR REGION ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. ON THE WESTERN
FLANK, SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL PROVIDE
PERIODS OF FORCING THAT WHEN COUPLED WITH THE UNDERLYING HEAT AND
INSTABILITY AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE (LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OF
1.70 TO 2.0 INCHES) WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE...CLIMBING INTO THE
LOWER 90S...AND FALLING OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 70.

PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS...ASIDE FROM DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS STILL PROJECT A REBOUNDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE EURO MODEL CONTINUES TO OUT PACE
THE GFS WITH BUILDING THIS RIDGE. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH
GFS...THUS NOT ANTICIPATING A SURFACE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE UNTIL
SUNDAY...IF THE EURO PROVES CORRECT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL HAVE
TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. /08 JW

&&

.AVIATION...(22.12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN AND AROUND SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. /13

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  72  90  72  90 /  50  30  50  30  30
PENSACOLA   91  75  90  75  91 /  40  30  40  30  30
DESTIN      89  76  85  76  88 /  30  30  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   92  70  92  71  92 /  50  40  60  40  40
WAYNESBORO  90  70  92  70  90 /  70  40  60  30  40
CAMDEN      92  70  92  70  92 /  60  50  60  40  40
CRESTVIEW   93  69  94  70  93 /  40  30  60  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
538 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-231045-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
538 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-231045-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
538 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
258 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

MSZ067-222100-
WAYNE MS-
258 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

AT 253 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED 14 MILES EAST OF
LAUREL...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SANDERSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WAYNESBORO...         STATE LINE...         CLARA...
  BUCKATUNNA...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING WIRED
TELEPHONES DIRECTLY CONNECTED TO OUTSIDE PHONE LINES.

SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND A WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO OR TV FOR FURTHER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
GREATLY RESTRICT VISIBILITY AND CREATE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...WHICH MAY CAUSE VEHICLES TO HYDROPLANE. TRAVELERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION.

&&