Alert archive / Alabama / River Flood Warnings in 2014

River Flood Warning 65, NWS Mobile, AL

May 14, 2014Covington County, Escambia County, Alabama

NWS Mobile, AL issued this river flood warning at May 14, 2014, 9:34 PM CDT for Covington County, Escambia County, Alabama. It took effect at May 15, 2014, 4:45 AM CDT. It was in force for 3 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 14, 2014, 9:34 PM CDT (02:34 UTC)
In effect from
May 15, 2014, 4:45 AM CDT
Expired
May 18, 2014, 8:42 AM CDT
In force
3 days
Issued by
NWS Mobile, AL
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Covington County, AL, Escambia County, AL

The radar

The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Conecuh River at Brewton (BWTA1). The gauge peaked at 26.60 ft at May 17, 2014, 2:00 AM CDT.

actionminormoderate1520253005/1505/1605/1705/1805/19
Action stage
22 ft
Minor stage
27 ft
Moderate stage
32 ft
Major stage
34 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02374250, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

057 
WGUS44 KMOB 150234
FLWMOB
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL 
934 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014



...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE 
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA... 

  MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY.
  CONECUH RIVER AT BREWTON AFFECTING COVINGTON AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES.

.HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVERS.

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC053-160234-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FL.W.0064.140515T0600Z-140516T2100Z/
/BWMA1.1.ER.140515T0600Z.140515T1800Z.140516T1500Z.NO/
934 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON
* FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 8 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS...19.1 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22 FEET 
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 23.9 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 22 FEET...FLOODING OF PERSIMMON AND ANN STREETS.
* AT 24 FEET...FLOODING OF HIGHWAY 29 BEGINS WHEN THE RIVER REACHES 24 FEET.

&&

LAT...LON 3114 8704 3113 8701 3107 8709 3108 8713


$$

ALC039-053-160233-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FL.W.0065.140515T0945Z-140518T1342Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.140515T0945Z.140517T0600Z.140518T0742Z.NO/
934 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE CONECUH RIVER AT BREWTON
* FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING
* AT 8 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS...21.6 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27 FEET 
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO 
  NEAR 28.4 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 27 FEET...FLOODING OF FARMLAND WILL AND CATTLE SHOULD BE MOVED TO HIGHER
  GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8680 3111 8676 3103 8709 3107 8712


$$
4 follow-up statements
248 
WGUS84 KMOB 150433
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1133 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...FLORIDA...
 
  MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 
  CONECUH RIVER AT BREWTON AFFECTING COVINGTON AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES. 
  ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC053-160433-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0064.140515T0815Z-140516T2315Z/
/BWMA1.1.ER.140515T0815Z.140516T0000Z.140516T1715Z.NO/
1133 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON
* FROM EARLY TOMORROW UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING
* AT 10PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.0 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 24.1 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD
  STAGE BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AT 22.0 FEET, FLOODING OF PERSIMMON AND ANN STREETS WILL BEGIN.  

&&

LAT...LON 3114 8704 3113 8701 3107 8709 3108 8713


$$

ALC039-053-160433-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0065.140515T1500Z-140518T1500Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.140515T1500Z.140516T1800Z.140518T0900Z.NO/
1133 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONECUH RIVER AT BREWTON
* FROM TOMORROW LATE MORNING UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING
* AT 10PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.6 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 28.2 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8680 3111 8676 3103 8709 3107 8712


$$

ALC053-FLC033-160433-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0063.140515T1108Z-000000T0000Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.140515T1108Z.140517T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1133 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY
* FROM TOMORROW MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 11PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.9 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO
  NEAR 21.5 FEET BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8718 3100 8715 3090 8728 3077 8729
      3077 8733 3093 8731            

$$
568 
WGUS84 KMOB 151632
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1132 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...
 
  MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 
  CONECUH RIVER AT BREWTON AFFECTING COVINGTON AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVERS. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC053-161300-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0064.000000T0000Z-140516T1300Z/
/BWMA1.1.ER.140515T2000Z.140516T0000Z.140516T0700Z.NO/
1132 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON
* FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING
* AT 10AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.6 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE
  TO NEAR 22.2 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.
* AT 22 FEET, FLOODING OF PERSIMMON AND ANN STREETS WILL BEGIN AS THE CREEK 
  LEVEL RISES ABOVE 22 FEET.  

&&

LAT...LON 3114 8704 3113 8701 3107 8709 3108 8713


$$

ALC039-053-161632-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0065.000000T0000Z-140517T0900Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.140516T1500Z.140516T1800Z.140517T0300Z.NO/
1132 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE CONECUH RIVER AT BREWTON
* FROM TOMORROW LATE MORNING UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
* AT 10AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 25 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 27.1 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE EVENING.
* AT 27 FEET, FLOODING OF FARMLAND IN THE AREA WILL OCCUR AND CATTLE SHOULD
  BE MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8680 3111 8676 3103 8709 3107 8712


$$
527 
WGUS84 KMOB 160258
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
958 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014

...FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...

  MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 
  CONECUH RIVER AT BREWTON AFFECTING COVINGTON AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES.

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC053-161400-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0064.000000T0000Z-140516T1400Z/
/BWMA1.1.ER.140515T2049Z.140516T0600Z.140516T0800Z.NO/
958 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING 
* AT 9 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.1 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET
* THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AT 22.1 FEET. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TOMORROW.
AT 22.0 FEET, FLOODING OF PERSIMMON AND ANN STREETS OCCURS AS THE CREEK 
LEVEL RISES ABOVE 22 FEET.

&&

LAT...LON 3114 8704 3113 8701 3107 8709 3108 8713


$$

ALC039-053-170258-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0065.000000T0000Z-140517T1800Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.140516T2100Z.140517T0600Z.140517T1200Z.NO/
958 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES
FOR
  THE CONECUH RIVER AT BREWTON
* FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 9 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.8 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 27.2 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AT 27.0 FEET, FLOODING OF FARMLAND IN THE AREA WILL OCCUR AND CATTLE SHOULD BE 
MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND IF THIS HAS NOT ALREADY BEEN DONE.  

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8680 3111 8676 3103 8709 3107 8712


$$
035 
WGUS84 KMOB 161720
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...
FLORIDA...
 
  CONECUH RIVER AT BREWTON AFFECTING COVINGTON AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES.
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA AND 
  SANTA ROSA COUNTIES.

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVERS. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC039-053-161750-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0065.000000T0000Z-140517T1800Z/
/BWTA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE CONECUH RIVER AT BREWTON
* UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON 
* AT 11AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.4 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27 FEET
 

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8680 3111 8676 3103 8709 3107 8712


$$

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-161750-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0067.000000T0000Z-140517T0200Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.140516T1000Z.140516T1230Z.140516T1422Z.NO/
1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER
* UNTIL THIS EVENING 
* AT 12PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
 

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8674 3099 8671 3075 8672 3068 8688
      3070 8690 3082 8675             

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at May 14, 8:47 PM CDT, 47 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 14, 8:47 PM CDT, 47 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
847 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS BACK EDGE OF RAINFALL WHICH IS LIGHT...NOW OVER THE
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. RISK OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED AND
REMAINDER OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE...POST FRONTAL LOW CIGS AND PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL
BE IN THE FORECAST REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014/

UPDATE...BACK EDGE OF RAINFALL HAS CLEARED A MAJORITY OF FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AND HAVE CANCELLED A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF CURRENT WATCH DUE TO
RADAR TRENDS. WILL KEEP A SMALL PORTION OF WATCH GOING OVER EXTREME
EASTERN ZONES WHERE RAINS HAVE YET TO CLEAR BUT WILL LIKELY CLEAR
THESE SOON. THERE REMAINS A NARROW...BUT BROKEN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG AN
EASTWARD MOVING FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT ADDITIONAL RAINS FROM
THIS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE STICKING AROUND LONG DUE TO GOOD EASTWARD
PROGRESSION NOTED IN RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. FORECASTERS HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WHICH ARE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN
BUTLER COUNTY...SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH CONECUH/COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA AL AND
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE HIGH RESOLUTION
DUAL POL STORM TOTAL RAINS INDICATE WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES HAVE FALLEN TODAY. WITHIN THESE AREAS...RADAR ESTIMATES SOME
7 TO 11 INCHES HAS FALLEN TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
ESCAMBIA...EASTERN CONECUH...EXTREME WESTERN COVINGTON...AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN BUTLER COUNTIES IN ALABAMA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A MULTITUDE
OF PROBLEMS...THAT BEING NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND IS ENTERING SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AS OF THIS POST. THE
FRONT IS CHARACTERIZED BY AN EASTWARD MOVING THIN LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS.
A FLICKER OF LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
BUT THE MOST ORGANIZED RAINS CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OF I-65...DOWN TO
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FORTUNATELY...BEGINNING TO SEE MORE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH THESE RAINS SO WILL LIKELY BE REMOVING THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOON AS BACK EDGE OF RAIN
SHIELD MOVES OUT. WHEN THE FRONT PASSES...OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM
INDICATE A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING SOON THEREAFTER. /10

AVIATION [15.00Z TAF ISSUANCE]...FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING KMOB
AND WILL SOON BE MOVING ACROSS KBFM AND KPNS BRINGING A WIND SHIFT
AND LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS PER OBSERVATIONS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A LARGE CANOPY OF LOW CIGS TO CONTEND WITH
OVERNIGHT WITH BASES WITHIN MVFR THRESHOLDS. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMES AN END TO ORGANIZED RAINS ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/PASSING
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE POST FRONTAL CIGS. THURSDAY LOOKS BREEZY
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BEING THE MAIN HAZARD TO
FLIGHT OPS. SKIES CLEARING. /10

FROM PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND THURSDAY]...GRADUAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT BETWEEN MID EVENING OVER INTERIOR SE MS AND SUNRISE TO MID
MORNING TIME FRAME IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. TOMORROW'S AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY FORECAST BY THE GUIDANCE TO BE RECORD LOW
HIGHS...68-75 DEG(F). GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ANOMALY...WILL GO A
BIT BELOW THE LATTER WITH NEAR 66 DEG(F) OVER FAR NRN ZONES RANGING
TO TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /23 JMM

(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...KINETIC ENERGY SWINGING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT ALREADY WELL EAST OF OUR REGION
AND CONTINUE TO PULL IN COOL DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURE
BEING CALCULATED BY GUIDANCE IS FAR BELOW SEASONAL AND WE ARE IN
TOTAL AGREEMENT. A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER DAY WITH TEMPERATURE IN THE
MID 70S...PLUS OR MINUS A DEGREE OR TWO...IS EXPECTED.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY...WITH ITS AXIS JUST
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GUIDANCE IS CALCULATING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS...PUSHING A REINFORCING FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVER OUR
AREA. GUIDANCE IS CALCULATING THIS BOUNDARY STALLING ALONG THE COAST
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURE DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
AWAY FROM THE COAST...NEAR 40 IN PLACES...AND UPPER 40S NEAR THE
BEACH. A SURFACE HIGH OVER TEXAS PUSHES EAST OVER THE GULF AND THUS
THE WIND WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AGAIN AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REBOUND A BIT.   /77 BD

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
EXCEPT AT ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION...BUT WITH
THE TROUGH ITSELF RETREATING NORTH A BIT...SAID FRONT WILL HAVE
PROBLEMS MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION. THE ECMWF IS INDICATING THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR AREA...BUT ONLY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS. GFS KEEPS IT WELL NORTH. WE BELIEVE A BLENDED OUTPUT IS THE
BEST FORECAST. WITH NO REAL REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR...TEMPERATURE
WILL FINALLY DRIFT UPWARD TOWARDS SEASONAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS
TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR EAST...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A
SURFACE RIDGE HAS MOVED FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE STALLED SECOND FRONT WILL TEND TO DELAY ONSET
OF AN OPENING GULF BRINGING WATER VAPOR TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...SO HUMIDITY WILL REBOUND MORE
SLOWLY THAN USUAL AND ANOTHER DRY PERIOD AND TEMPERATURE BELOW
SEASONAL IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES
TO BUILD...WITH AN UPPER HIGH MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY TUESDAY AND THUS TEMPERATURE CONTINUES TO RISE TO ABOVE
SEASONAL FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK THROUGH TUESDAY. /77 BD

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS HOISTED FOR INCREASING
NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ...WITH
SOME GUSTS JUST ABOVE GALE FORCE (32-38 KNOT RANGE). SEAS BUILD TO 7
TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE BY EARLY THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS SUBSIDE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      51  71  48  79  52 /  10  10  05  10  05
PENSACOLA   56  71  53  80  59 /  60  10  05  05  10
DESTIN      61  72  54  76  59 /  60  10  05  00  05
EVERGREEN   54  68  42  78  47 /  50  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  48  68  43  77  46 /  10  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      52  67  42  76  45 /  30  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   58  71  45  79  48 /  60  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, May 14, 5:40 PM CDT, 3 hours 54 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
540 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-152300-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
540 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND
THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE CONTINUES.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
TONIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE HEAVY RAIN ONCE IT PASSES THROUGH.

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS...SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 65...HAVE ELEVATED
STAGES DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS. SEE THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS AND
POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SPECIFIC RIVER INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
COASTAL BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE
THURSDAY...THEN A LOWER RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE REQUIRED.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-152300-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
540 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED WITH A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
A FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS
IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS OPERATING CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. HIGH SEAS CONTINUE.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 14, 5:02 PM CDT, 4 hours 32 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
502 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ATMORE                  31.02N 87.49W
05/14/2014                   ESCAMBIA           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ESCAMBIA EMA REPORTS SEVERAL STREETS FLOODED AND CLOSED
            IN ATMORE

0400 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FLOMATON                31.01N 87.26W
05/14/2014                   ESCAMBIA           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ESCAMBIA EMA REPORTS SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED IN AND AROUND
            FLOMATON

&&

JFB
Local storm report, May 14, 5:04 PM CDT, 4 hours 30 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
504 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RIVER FALLS             31.35N 86.54W
05/14/2014                   COVINGTON          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED AND CLOSED IN THE RIVER FALLS AND
            RED LEVEL AREAS OF WESTERN COVINGTON COUNTY

&&

JFB
Local storm report, May 14, 5:05 PM CDT, 4 hours 29 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
505 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RIVER FALLS             31.35N 86.54W
05/14/2014                   COVINGTON          AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED AND CLOSED IN THE RIVER FALLS AND
            RED LEVEL AREAS OF WESTERN COVINGTON COUNTY. RELAYED BY
            WSFA

&&

JFB
Local storm report, May 14, 5:59 PM CDT, 3 hours 35 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
559 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FLOMATON                31.01N 87.26W
05/14/2014                   ESCAMBIA           AL   NEWSPAPER

            HIGHWAY 31 AT FLOMATON HIGH SCHOOL IS CLOSED WITH WATER
            ENTERING SOME STRUCTURES.

&&

JFB
Local storm report, May 14, 6:48 PM CDT, 2 hours 46 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
648 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N BROOKLYN            31.28N 86.77W
05/14/2014                   CONECUH            AL   911 CALL CENTER

            BRIDGE WASHED OUT ON CALLOWAY ROAD. 4 OTHER COUNTY ROADS
            IN EASTERN CONECUH COUNTY ARE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0545 PM     FLASH FLOOD      EVERGREEN               31.43N 86.95W
05/14/2014                   CONECUH            AL   911 CALL CENTER

            3 ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING IN THE CITY OF EVERGREEN

&&

JFB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Mobile, AL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 14, 7:09 PM CDTAreal Flood WarningMOBButler, Conecuh, Covington, Escambia6 hr
May 14, 9:34 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningMOBEscambia42 hr
May 15, 12:05 PM CDTWind AdvisoryMOBCovington, Escambia7 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Alabama, 2014Every river flood warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.