River Flood Warning 52, NWS Mobile, AL

154 
WGUS84 KMOB 291934
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
234 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN MISSISSIPPI...
 
  LEAF NEAR MCLAIN AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND PERRY COUNTIES. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

MSC039-041-111-301934-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0052.140501T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.140501T0600Z.140503T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
234 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LEAF NEAR MCLAIN
* FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 2PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.5 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 20.0 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 18 FEET...CONSIDERABLE LOWLAND AND AGRICULTURAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
      3098 8877 3114 8887             

$$

743 
WGUS84 KMOB 300329
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
1029 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSISSIPPI...
 
  LEAF NEAR MCLAIN AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND PERRY COUNTIES. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

MSC039-041-111-010329-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0052.140501T0600Z-140504T2136Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.140501T0600Z.140503T0600Z.140504T1536Z.NO/
1029 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE LEAF NEAR MCLAIN
* FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 10 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.9 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 20.0 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

700 
WGUS84 KMOB 301606
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
1106 AM CDT WED APR 30 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSISSIPPI...
 
  THE LEAF NEAR MCLAIN AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND PERRY COUNTIES

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

MSC039-041-111-011606-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0052.140502T0430Z-140505T0130Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.140502T0430Z.140503T1200Z.140504T1930Z.NO/
1106 AM CDT WED APR 30 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LEAF NEAR MCLAIN
* FROM TOMORROW LATE EVENING UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING
* AT 10AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.9 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EVENING 
  AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 20.0 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

98/SO

644 
WGUS84 KMOB 010458
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1158 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSISSIPPI...
 
  LEAF NEAR MCLAIN AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND PERRY COUNTIES. 
  PASCAGOULA AT MERRILL AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND JACKSON COUNTIES. 
  CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

MSC039-041-111-020458-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0052.140502T0500Z-140505T0336Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.140502T0500Z.140503T1200Z.140504T2136Z.NO/
1158 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LEAF NEAR MCLAIN
* FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING
* AT 11 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.5 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 20 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 18 FEET...CONSIDERABLE LOWLAND AND AGRICULTURAL FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
      3098 8877 3114 8887             

$$

MSC039-041-153-020458-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.140429T1913Z.140505T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1158 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 11 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.7 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26.5 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.  
  ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* AT 26 FEET...FLOODING AT THE HIGHWAY BRIDGE BEGINS.
* AT 22 FEET...FLOODING OF LOWLANDS CONTINUES AND SOME ROADS WILL BE CUT OFF
  BY HIGH WATER.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
      3100 8875 3110 8858             

$$

MSC039-041-059-020458-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0053.140505T0600Z-140505T1200Z/
/MRRM6.1.ER.140505T0600Z.140505T0600Z.140505T0600Z.NO/
1158 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PASCAGOULA AT MERRILL
* FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING
* AT 11PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.7 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 22 FEET BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 20 FEET...WATER COVERS MAIN ROAD AT PLUM BLUFF.
* AT 18.5 FEET...WATER COVERS ROADS AT SMITHS FISH CAMP.
* AT 15 FEET...WATER UNDER HOMES IN CEDAR CREEK ESTATES.
* AT 14 FEET...ROADS TO CEDAR CREEK ESTATES ARE IMPASSABLE.
* AT 13 FEET...WATER COVERS ROADS IN CEDAR CREEK ESTATES.

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8877 3098 8872 3082 8871 3074 8864
      3074 8868 3082 8879             

$$

177 
WGUS84 KMOB 011552
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1052 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2014
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSISSIPPI...
 
  LEAF NEAR MCLAIN AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND PERRY COUNTIES. 
  CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

MSC039-041-111-021552-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0052.140503T1800Z-140504T0600Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.140503T1800Z.140503T1800Z.140504T0000Z.NO/
1052 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE LEAF NEAR MCLAIN
* FROM SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
* AT 10 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.9 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 18 FEET BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT 18 FEET...CONSIDERABLE LOWLAND AND AGRICULTURAL FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
      3098 8877 3114 8887             

$$

MSC039-041-153-021552-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.140429T1913Z.140503T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1052 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 10 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.1 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING THEN 
  BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 26 FEET...FLOODING AT THE HIGHWAY BRIDGE BEGINS.
* AT 22 FEET...FLOODING OF LOWLANDS CONTINUES AND SOME ROADS WILL BE CUT OFF
  BY HIGH WATER.


&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
      3100 8875 3110 8858             

$$

282 
WGUS84 KMOB 020210
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
910 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2014
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSISSIPPI...
 
  LEAF NEAR MCLAIN AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND PERRY COUNTIES. 
  PASCAGOULA AT MERRILL AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND JACKSON COUNTIES. 
  CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

MSC039-041-111-030210-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0052.140503T1800Z-140504T0000Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.140503T1800Z.140503T1800Z.140503T1800Z.NO/
910 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE LEAF NEAR MCLAIN
* FROM SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING
* AT 8PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.0 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 18.0 FEET BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* AT 18 FEET, CONSIDERABLE LOWLAND AND AGRICULTURAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR.  

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
      3098 8877 3114 8887             

$$

MSC039-041-153-030210-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.140429T1913Z.140503T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
910 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 8PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.2 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26.0 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING 
  THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 26 FEET, FLOODING AT THE HIGHWAY BRIDGE BEGINS WHEN THE LEVEL RISES ABOVE 
  26 FEET.  

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
      3100 8875 3110 8858             

$$

MSC039-041-059-030210-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0053.140505T0000Z-140505T1200Z/
/MRRM6.1.ER.140505T0000Z.140505T0000Z.140505T0600Z.NO/
910 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PASCAGOULA AT MERRILL
* FROM SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING
* AT 8PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.7 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE TO FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 20 FEET, WATER COVERS THE MAIN AT PLUM BLUFF IN SOUTHERN GEORGE COUNTY.

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8877 3098 8872 3082 8871 3074 8864
      3074 8868 3082 8879             

$$

309 
WGUS84 KMOB 021703
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1203 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSISSIPPI...
 
  LEAF NEAR MCLAIN AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND PERRY COUNTIES.
  PASCAGOULA AT MERRILL AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND JACKSON COUNTIES.

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

MSC039-041-111-021733-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-140504T0000Z/
/MCLM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1203 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE LEAF NEAR MCLAIN
* UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING 
* AT 11 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.2 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18 FEET

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
      3098 8877 3114 8887             

$$

MSC039-041-059-021733-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-140505T1200Z/
/MRRM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1203 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE PASCAGOULA AT MERRILL
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING 
* AT 11 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.1 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22 FEET

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8877 3098 8872 3082 8871 3074 8864
      3074 8868 3082 8879             

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
502 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...QUITE AN EVENTFUL NIGHT
WITH MANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MEASURED
SEVERE GUST OF 58 MPH HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE. THE BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE TORNADO
WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE REMAINDER COUNTIES AT 5 AM.

WITH THE FIRST ROUND MOVING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...THE BIG QUESTION
IS WHAT HAPPENS LATER TODAY? THERE ARE DEFINITELY MIXED SIGNALS
REGARDING THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW QUICK CAN THE AIRMASS RECOVER FROM
THIS FIRST ROUND? DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN
THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION...WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S PRIOR. THE OTHER QUESTIONS REGARDING AIRMASS RECOVERY HAS TO DO
WITH THE LARGE CANOPY OF CLOUDS THAT ENCOMPASSES EASTERN MS AND ALL
OF AL/NW FL.

THE HRRR HAS HAD A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS EVENT SO FAR AND BELIEVE
IT YIELDS SOME CLUES FOR HOW THINGS WILL PROGRESS TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO ERODE OVER WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. AS
THIS HAPPENS...A RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO ADVECT
DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE LOWS 70S OVER SW AL AND INLAND SE MS. THIS
RESULTS IN MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 2000-3000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER
IOWA AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER IMPETUS FOR UPPER LEVEL LIFT...
ALTHOUGH PROGGED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS
OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSUMING WE REACH THE FORECAST
INSTABILITY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AL/SE MS AND TRACK NORTHEAST.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-55 KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS.
WHILE THE 850 MB JET IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE...A
SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MS
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY BACK SFC WINDS AND INCREASE 0-1KM
SRH TO 150-200 J/KG. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...SCATTERED STORMS
THAT DEVELOP MAY QUICKLY TURN INTO SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE THREAT
FOR A STRONG TORNADO WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE FEATURES (I.E.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY) THAT MIGHT FURTHER ENHANCE THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF I-65 IN A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND WE ALSO FEEL THIS IS WHERE THE BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE...BUT MOBILE AND BALDWIN ARE IN A SIMILAR THREAT
EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE NOT OFFICIALLY INCLUDED IN THE MODERATE RISK.

STORMS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT INCREASING EAST OF I-65...INCLUDING
THE FL PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOWEST OVER OUR
AL COUNTIES IN S CTRL AL...WHERE THE AMOUNT OF AIRMASS RECOVERY IS
EVEN LESS CERTAIN. AT THE VERY LEAST...STORMS WILL LIKELY TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...AS THE FRONT ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING IS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY AND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. 34/JFB

FRONT PASSING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT ALIGNED ALONG THE I-65
CORRIDOR (LOWERING OF PRECIPITABLE WATER TO LESS THAN 1.25" NORTHWEST
OF THE INTERSTATE AND VALUES FROM 1.3 TO 1.8 INCHES SOUTHEAST OF THE
INTERSTATE). THE HIGHER CHANCE OF WET WEATHER WILL BE POSITIONED
WITHIN THE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL AXIS/BETTER ASCENT MOVES ACROSS. STILL
COULD BE DEALING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ALTHOUGH THE BETTER RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA...THERE COULD BE A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY...UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM
THE WEST. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS MOISTURE AXIS
ALIGNED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65 TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSAGE OF WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT. /10

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...ABUNDANT
ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS CAUSES A SHARPENING OF THE
UPPER TROF TO THE WEST. THE TROF AXIS PIVOTS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
CLOSE OUT THE WEEK OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES UNTIL THE ENERGY ALOFT MOVES
COMPLETELY THROUGH. FOR NOW...RAINFREE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
DEEP MOISTURE IS SUPPRESSED MORE TO THE SOUTH. COOLER TEMPERATURES
FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNINGS WITH LOWS POSSIBLY
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 40S OVER THE INTERIOR. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S END OF THE WEEK...MODIFY INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY. /10

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PUSHING
OFFSHORE WITH VFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED IN THE WAKE OF IT. A RETURN OF
MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESTRENGTHENS. CONVECTION BECOMES INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER
18Z...LASTING INTO TONIGHT...SO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND IFR
CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCING EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR MARINE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES
OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. OFFSHORE FLOW FORECAST ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  64  80  52  75 /  70  80  50  20  10
PENSACOLA   80  70  80  57  78 /  70  80  60  30  10
DESTIN      77  72  78  62  77 /  70  80  60  30  10
EVERGREEN   82  67  81  51  75 /  70  80  60  20  10
WAYNESBORO  85  60  78  47  73 /  70  60  20  10  10
CAMDEN      84  64  79  50  74 /  70  80  40  10  10
CRESTVIEW   82  72  83  54  78 /  70  80  60  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
545 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-301100-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
545 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST RISK AREAS IS ROUGHLY ALONG
AND WEST OF A BAYOU LA BATRE...BAY MINETTE...TO CAMDEN ALABAMA LINE.
THIS INCLUDES ALL OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON OVER THIS AREA AND TRACK NORTHEAST. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
LARGE HAIL.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE I-65 THIS EVENING...INCLUDING
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS
MUCH OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA NEAR THE STATE LINE...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES FURTHER EAST. AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY
PERSIST EAST OF I-65 THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-301100-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
545 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT DUE TO A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...AND LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
426 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 AM     TSTM WND DMG     OPP                     31.28N 86.26W
04/29/2014                   COVINGTON          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER OUTAGES IN GANT AND OPP.

&&

GENEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
427 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 AM     LIGHTNING        ANDALUSIA               31.31N 86.48W
04/29/2014                   COVINGTON          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LIGHTNING INDUCED HOUSE FIRE IN ANDALUSIA.

&&

GENEJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
531 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

FLZ006-291100-
COASTAL OKALOOSA FL-
531 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN OKALOOSA
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...THROUGH 600 AM CDT...

AT 529 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARY ESTHER TO FORT WALTON
BEACH TO 6 MILES EAST OF NICEVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  OCEAN CITY...         FORT WALTON BEACH...  SHALIMAR...
  LAKE LORRAINE...      DESTIN...             WRIGHT...
  VALPARAISO...         NICEVILLE...          MARY ESTHER...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS.

PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. SEEK SHELTER
INDOORS UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
621 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENVILLE              31.83N 86.62W
04/29/2014                   BUTLER             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES REPORTED DOWN THROUGHOUT BUTLER COUNTY. TREE DOWN
            ON A DEPUTY CAR. PORCH BLOWN OFF FROM A RESIDENCE.

0250 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MIDTOWN MOBILE          30.69N 88.13W
04/29/2014                   MOBILE             AL   PUBLIC

            FLOODING REPORTED IN A HOME ON SPIRNGHILL AVE. WATER
            FLOWING VERY QUICKLY THROUGH THE YARD AND STREET

0300 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MIDTOWN MOBILE          30.69N 88.13W
04/29/2014                   MOBILE             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING REPORTED INSIDE SPRINGHILL HOSPITAL. WATER
            GETTING INTO THE OPERATING ROOMS AND ER

0310 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SE MOBILE REGIONAL AI 30.64N 88.20W
04/29/2014                   MOBILE             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            3 FEET OF WATER AT THE WINN DIXIE AT SCHILLINGER RD AND
            COTTAGE HILL RD

0315 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DOWNTOWN MOBILE         30.70N 88.05W
04/29/2014                   MOBILE             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MOBILE POLICE REPORTS MOST ROADS IN DOWNTOWN MOBILE
            FLOODED. POLICE AND FIRE VEHICLES STALLED IN THE WATER AT
            VARIOUS LOCATIONS

&&

JFB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
642 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT 30.68N 88.24W
04/29/2014  M4.60 INCH       MOBILE             AL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            MEASURED RAIN TOTAL AT THE NWS OFFICE SINCE 1 AM. MOST OF
            THE RAIN FELL IN ONE HOUR TIME. THE OBSERVING EQUIPMENT
            ON THE AIRPORT PROPERTY RECORDED 4.45 INCHES

&&

JFB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
738 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 NW MOLINO             30.77N 87.39W
04/29/2014                   ESCAMBIA           FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER OVER THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 97 AND GIBSON
            RD.

0330 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SE CHUMUCKLA          30.75N 87.20W
04/29/2014                   SANTA ROSA         FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER OVER THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROAD 197 AND
            TIDWELL RD.

&&

CL