River Flood Warning 11, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
...(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...PESKY STRATUS HAS MIXED OUT OVER PRETTY MUCH
THE WHOLE FA AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. AM EXPECTING GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS. SOME BR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...BUT AM
EXPECTING VISBYS TO REMAIN A MVFR OR ABOVE LEVELS WHERE IT DOES
OCCUR.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SURFACE LOW WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST/MID
ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES AWAY...PERSISTENT WRAP AROUND
LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FORECAST INTO THE EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS EVENING. ENOUGH SURFACE BASED
MOISTURE EXISTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY FOG FORMATION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4
STATUTE MILES. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST MOS OUTPUT AND THE
18.12Z NAM. THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW AN INCREASING
PERCENTAGE OF FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EARLY AM. LATEST GRIDDED
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS CALL FOR THIS AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE.
SOME OF THE MORE FOG PRONE AREAS/LOWER LYING SPOTS COULD SEE
INSTANCES OF DENSE FOG (VISIBILITY TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS). LITTLE
CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LOWER HALF OF THE 40S INTERIOR. 45 TO
50 ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COASTAL ZONES.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. NOT ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EXPECTED FOR THE FRONT TO OPERATE ON...SO WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN
OUT OF THE ZONES. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. /10

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY...WHILE SURFACE RIDGING THEN SETTLES OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THURSDAY. WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING
IS OTHERWISE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. WE LOWERED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...AND EXPECT READINGS
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS
THURSDAY STILL LOOK TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. POPS REMAIN
NEAR NIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS DRY ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. /21

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE
LOOKED TO BE ON TRACK AND ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL LOOKS TO MOVE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND THEN OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY THEN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES
THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH...AND ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF POPS LOOKS TO LINGER ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OR TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS...THEN TREND TO A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. 22/21

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIND SHIFT OCCURS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A LIGHT
WIND PATTERN PREVAILS UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH BRINGS NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FLOW THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH ADVANCES EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...WITH A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST. A STRONGER OFFSHORE WIND IS FORECAST WITH THE WEEKEND
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A BUILDING TREND EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
DUE TO THE INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW THEN. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  74  48  74  46 /  00  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   48  71  52  74  49 /  00  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      50  68  54  71  52 /  00  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   42  75  46  73  39 /  00  05  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  42  73  45  73  39 /  00  05  00  00  00
CAMDEN      42  75  46  71  39 /  00  05  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  76  47  75  40 /  00  05  05  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

10/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1213 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-191030-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1213 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-191030-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1213 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.