Alert archive / Alabama / Flash Flood Watches in 2014
Flash Flood Watch 7, NWS Mobile, AL
NWS Mobile, AL issued this flash flood watch at Apr 28, 2014, 3:42 AM CDT for 10 counties in Alabama; 5 counties in Mississippi. It took effect at Apr 28, 2014, 7:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 42 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 28, 2014, 3:42 AM CDT (08:42 UTC)
- In effect from
- Apr 28, 2014, 7:00 PM CDT
- Expired
- Apr 30, 2014, 1:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 42 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Mobile, AL
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Butler County, AL, Choctaw County, AL, Clarke County, AL, Conecuh County, AL, Covington County, AL, Crenshaw County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Monroe County, AL, Washington County, AL, Wilcox County, AL, George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Perry County, MS, Stone County, MS, Wayne County, MS
The radar
The Mobile radar (KMOB), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 00:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 215 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 831 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -96 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 689 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 459 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 675 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 0.8
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
755 WGUS64 KMOB 280842 FFAMOB URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 342 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... .A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF COAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS FORECAST. THE FIRST BRINGS ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL EASTWARD TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SPREADS EASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY COMBINED WITH A SLOW EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE FAVORING MORE HEAVY RAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST HAS SEEN 200 TO 600 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL FOR APRIL AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ON RAIN SOAKED GROUND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS. ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-281645- /O.NEW.KMOB.FF.A.0007.140429T0000Z-140430T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...FERRY PASS...BRENT... WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE... MILTON...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB... WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE... MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 342 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ALABAMA...BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON... CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE... UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON AND WILCOX. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA... COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE... GREENE...PERRY...STONE AND WAYNE. * FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AMOUNTS CAN BE EASILY DOUBLED IN THE CASE OF STORMS MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK THAT RAINS WILL EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. * WITH THE SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING HIGH FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS THE RESULT OF THE PASSAGE OF RECENT WEATHER SYSTEMS THIS MONTH...THE RISK OF FLOODING IS ELEVATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
7 follow-up statements
958 WGUS64 KMOB 281650 FFAMOB FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1150 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... .A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS FORECAST. THE FIRST WILL BRING ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WHEN COMBINED WITH A SLOW EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE FAVORING MORE HEAVY RAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST HAS SEEN 200 TO 600 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL FOR APRIL AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ON RAIN SOAKED GROUND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS. ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-290100- /O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0007.140429T0000Z-140430T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...FERRY PASS...BRENT... WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE... MILTON...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB... WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE... MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 1150 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ALABAMA... BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW... ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON AND WILCOX. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY... STONE AND WAYNE. * FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AMOUNTS CAN BE EASILY DOUBLED IN THE CASE OF STORMS MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK THAT RAINS WILL EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. * WITH THE SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING HIGH FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS THE RESULT OF THE PASSAGE OF RECENT WEATHER SYSTEMS THIS MONTH...THE RISK OF FLOODING IS ELEVATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
871 WGUS64 KMOB 282338 FFAMOB FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 638 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... .A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS FORECAST. THE FIRST WILL BRING ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WHEN COMBINED WITH A SLOW EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE FAVORING MORE HEAVY RAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST HAS SEEN 200 TO 600 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL FOR APRIL AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ON RAIN SOAKED GROUND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS. ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-290745- /O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0007.140429T0000Z-140430T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...FERRY PASS...BRENT... WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE... MILTON...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB... WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE... MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 638 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ALABAMA... BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW... ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON AND WILCOX. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY... STONE AND WAYNE. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AMOUNTS CAN BE EASILY DOUBLED IN THE CASE OF STORMS MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK THAT RAINS WILL EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. * WITH THE SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING HIGH FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS THE RESULT OF THE PASSAGE OF RECENT WEATHER SYSTEMS THIS MONTH...THE RISK OF FLOODING IS ELEVATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
459 WGUS64 KMOB 290506 FFAMOB FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1206 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... .A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS FORECAST. THE FIRST WILL BRING ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WHEN COMBINED WITH A SLOW EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE FAVORING MORE HEAVY RAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST HAS SEEN 200 TO 600 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL FOR APRIL AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ON RAIN SOAKED GROUND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS. ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-291315- /O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-140430T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...FERRY PASS...BRENT... WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE... MILTON...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB... WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE... MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 1206 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ALABAMA... BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW... ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON AND WILCOX. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY... STONE AND WAYNE. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AMOUNTS CAN BE EASILY DOUBLED IN THE CASE OF STORMS MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK THAT RAINS WILL EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. * WITH THE SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING HIGH FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS THE RESULT OF THE PASSAGE OF RECENT WEATHER SYSTEMS THIS MONTH...THE RISK OF FLOODING IS ELEVATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
638 WGUS64 KMOB 291217 FFAMOB FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 717 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... .ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WHEN COMBINED WITH A SLOW EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE FAVORING MORE HEAVY RAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST HAS SEEN 200 TO 600 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL FOR APRIL AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ON RAIN SOAKED GROUND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS. ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-292100- /O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-140430T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...FERRY PASS...BRENT... WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE... MILTON...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB... WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE... MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 717 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ALABAMA... BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW... ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON AND WILCOX. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY... STONE AND WAYNE. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. AMOUNTS CAN BE EASILY DOUBLED WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. * MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA NEAR THE STATE LINE RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES FURTHER EAST. THE EXPECTED ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE FLOODING ISSUES...INCLUDING INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS IS ALSO LIKELY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
920 WGUS64 KMOB 292023 FFAMOB FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 323 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... .ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WHEN COMBINED WITH A SLOW EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE FAVORING MORE HEAVY RAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST HAS SEEN 200 TO 600 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL FOR APRIL AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ON RAIN SOAKED GROUND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS. ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-300600- /O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-140430T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...FERRY PASS...BRENT... WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE... MILTON...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB... WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE... MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 323 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ALABAMA... BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW... ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON AND WILCOX. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY... STONE AND WAYNE. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. AMOUNTS CAN BE EASILY DOUBLED WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. * MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA NEAR THE STATE LINE RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES FURTHER EAST. THE EXPECTED ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE FLOODING ISSUES...INCLUDING INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS IS ALSO LIKELY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
218 WGUS64 KMOB 300359 FFAMOB FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1059 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... .ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WHEN COMBINED WITH A SLOW EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE FAVORING MORE HEAVY RAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST HAS SEEN 200 TO 600 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL FOR APRIL AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ON RAIN SOAKED GROUND WILL LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS. ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-301200- /O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-140430T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...FERRY PASS...BRENT... WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE... MILTON...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB... WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE... MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 1059 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ALABAMA... BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW... ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON AND WILCOX. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY... STONE AND WAYNE. * UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY * 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND AROUND THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AND OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. TRAINING OF STORMS MAY NOT PROVIDE ANY BREAKS AND WORSEN THE FLOODING SITUATION. * SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MOBILE BAY RECEIVED 5 TO 11 INCHES TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE EXPECTED ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO MORE FLOODING ISSUES...INCLUDING INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS IS ALSO LIKELY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
832 WGUS64 KMOB 300859 FFAMOB URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 359 AM CDT WED APR 30 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... .A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT HAVE COMBINED WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT. THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST HAS SEEN 200 TO 600 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL FOR APRIL AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ON RAIN SOAKED GROUND WILL LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS. ALZ051>058-061-063-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-301000- /O.CAN.KMOB.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-140430T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- UPPER MOBILE-LOWER MOBILE-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT... NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 359 AM CDT WED APR 30 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HAS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE AREA...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. $$ ALZ059-060-062-064-FLZ001>006-301700- /O.EXT.KMOB.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-140430T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA- COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA- INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON... ANDALUSIA...OPP...BAY MINETTE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY... SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...FERRY PASS...BRENT... WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE... MILTON...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB 359 AM CDT WED APR 30 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ALABAMA...COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN AND UPPER BALDWIN. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. * UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON * 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND AROUND THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AND OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. TRAINING OF STORMS MAY NOT PROVIDE ANY BREAKS AND WORSEN THE FLOODING SITUATION. * SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MOBILE BAY RECEIVED 5 TO 11 INCHES TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE EXPECTED ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO MORE FLOODING ISSUES...INCLUDING INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS IS ALSO LIKELY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Apr 27, 11:58 PM CDT, 3 hours 44 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 27, 11:58 PM CDT, 3 hours 44 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1158 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014 .AVIATION (06Z ISSUANCE)...MVFR CEILINGS BEGIN AT MOB/BFM AND WILL ALSO HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT PNS AS ONSET IS EXPECTED SOON. CEILINGS LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT FOG BY 08Z THEN LIFT TO A MVFR CEILING BY 14Z WITH THE LIGHT FOG DISSIPATING. SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASE TO 17-20 KNOTS BY 18Z MONDAY. /29 && ** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ** ...SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT STRONGER WINDS WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGHEST RISK OF FOG BEING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 65. BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED ON MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER AS SFC HEATING CONTINUES AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH AND WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ENTER NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE AREA ACROSS WAYNE AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES BY LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A STRONG TORNADO POSSIBLE. /13 GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTING THE REGION MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NW ZONES MONDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER JET NOSING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS FORCING WELL HELP TO ERODE THE CAPPING AROUND 800 MB AND ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH MLCAPES LIKELY TO BE IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE...0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KT...AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME SEVERE. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELL ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CAMDEN...CHATOM...GROVE HILL...TO LEAKESVILLE LINE. ANY OF THESE SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY LARGE HAIL (GOLF BALL SIZE OR LARGER WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM). DESPITE AN OFFICIAL SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...SPC HAS NOW INCLUDED THESE FAR NW AREAS IN AN ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK. WE AGREE WITH THIS AND BELIEVE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...LONG TRACKED TORNADOES IN THE ENHANCED RISK AREA. ONCE WE GET PAST MIDNIGHT...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE DISCRETE CONVECTION MAY FORM INTO A LARGE LINE...OR PERHAPS A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS AS THE OVERALL ACTIVITY TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO AREAS ALONG I-65 AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINING POSSIBLE. IF A SOLID LINE FORMS...THEN THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BECOME PREDOMINATE. THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING. JUST HOW FAST THESE STORMS WEAKEN/MOVE EAST WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. BASED OFF THE LATEST DATA...WE BELIEVE THAT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY MIDDAY WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 2000-3000 J/KG...WITH INSTABILITY VALUES INCREASING BY AFTERNOON EAST OF I-65. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN ENHANCE DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS AND LIFT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS LIKELY. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR STILL NEAR 30 KT AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50-55 KT. THE THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST OF I-65 TUESDAY EVENING WITH THINGS GRADUALLY DECREASING AS THE STRONGEST WIND FIELDS SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. AGAIN...IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT IF THE MORNING STORMS ARE SLOWER TO CLEAR THE AREA THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN THE AFTERNOON RISK MAY BE REDUCED, THE FLOODING POTENTIAL IS AN EQUAL CONCERN OF OURS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING CONVECTION UNDER THE PREDOMINATE SW MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT MUCH OF OUR AREA HAS RECEIVED 200-600% OF NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING TO OCCUR...INCLUDING ALONG AREA RIVERS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT. 34/JFB .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 AS THE FRONT VERY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. A LULL IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OVER-RUNNING EVENT BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT ON THIS POTENTIAL...SO WILL LEAVE RAIN CHANCES AS IS FOR THIS PACKAGE. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. 34/JFB && .MARINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 69 84 70 80 65 / 10 20 80 70 70 PENSACOLA 71 82 71 79 69 / 10 10 50 80 70 DESTIN 69 78 70 77 70 / 10 10 50 80 70 EVERGREEN 67 88 69 83 64 / 10 20 90 70 70 WAYNESBORO 68 86 67 82 58 / 20 40 100 70 50 CAMDEN 66 87 69 81 62 / 10 30 100 70 70 CRESTVIEW 65 86 69 82 69 / 10 10 50 80 70 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. &&
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 27, 3:33 PM CDT, 12 hours 9 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 333 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-281200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 333 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 OVERNIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY MONDAY EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CAMDEN...GROVE HILL... CHATOM...TO LEAKESVILLE LINE. TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY LARGE HAIL OF GOLF BALL SIZE OR LARGER ARE ALL THREATS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG...LONG TRACKED TORNADO OVER THIS THREAT AREA. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ALL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK CONTINUES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING EAST OF I-65 TUESDAY EVENING. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IS A HIGH CONCERN AS WELL. WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. TOTALS COULD BE EASILY DOUBLED IF STRONG STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED... THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES AND RIVER STAGE RISES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. THIS RAIN COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL REMAIN ELEVATED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS LIKELY BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-281100- NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND- PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 333 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW RESULTS IN A BUILDING TREND IN SEAS BY TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OPEN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED HAZARDS FOR OPERATORS OF SMALLER MARINE CRAFT. STORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK COULD BE LOCALLY SEVERE...CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS...VISIBILITY REDUCING HEAVY RAINS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING ACTIVITY...A FEW TORNADOES...AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. STAY TUNED.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Mobile, AL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 3:04 AM CDT | Rip Current Statement | MOB | 3 days | |
| Apr 28, 3:17 AM CDT | Wind Advisory | MOB | Butler, Choctaw, Clarke, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw and 4 more | 19 hr |
| Apr 28, 5:12 AM CDT | Small Craft Advisory | MOB | 50 hr | |
| Apr 28, 9:44 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | MOB | Escambia | 5 days |
| Apr 28, 9:52 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | MOB | Dallas, Monroe, Wilcox | 3 days |
| Apr 28, 9:52 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | MOB | Clarke, Monroe, Wilcox | 5 days |
| Apr 28, 9:44 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | MOB | Okaloosa | 6 days |
| Apr 28, 9:58 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | MOB | George, Greene, Wayne | 9 days |
Nearby
Flash Flood Watches in Alabama, 2014Flash Flood Watches in Mississippi, 2014Flash Flood Watches in Florida, 2014Every flash flood watch in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.