Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Mobile, AL

299 
WGUS64 KMOB 290139
FFAMOB

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
839 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI... MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OVER 5 INCHES EARLIER TODAY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
LINGERING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE WAKE OF
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WILL BRING A CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

ALZ051>053-055-056-059>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-
291000-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-140329T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-MONROE-CONECUH-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...HOMEWOOD...
MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...
SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...FERRY PASS...BRENT...
WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...
MILTON...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...
WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...
MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
839 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST 
  MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ALABAMA... 
  CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...LOWER 
  BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE 
  AND WASHINGTON. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA... 
  COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA... 
  INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. IN SOUTHEAST 
  MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE AND WAYNE. 

* THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* MANY LOCATIONS IN THE WATCH AREA RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF 
  RAIN WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OVER 5 INCHES THIS MORNING. 
  ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND 
  THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN 
  ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND 
  EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF 
  FLASH FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA. 

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WATCH AREA...PARTICULARLY THOSE NEAR THE 
  COAST RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS THIS 
  MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED 
  GROUNDS WILL ENHANCE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THESE 
  LOCATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

652 
WGUS64 KMOB 290845
FFAMOB

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
345 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CANCELLED...

ALZ051>053-055-056-059>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-
290945-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-140329T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-MONROE-CONECUH-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...HOMEWOOD...
MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...
SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...FERRY PASS...BRENT...
WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...
MILTON...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...
WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...
MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
345 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA
AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA AROUND
SUNRISE. WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES ARE LIKELY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DECREASED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE AND AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1159 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...CURRENT PERIOD BEING DEFINED BY ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE SHOWERS NORTH OF A COMBINATION OUTFLOW/SQUALL LINE. THE
EASTERN EDGE HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FA...WITH SOUTHERN EXTENTS
APPROACHING SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE MARINE FA. AM EXPECTING THIS MORE
STABLE PRECIP TO LAST WELL INTO MID AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER
HALF OF AN INCH TO INCH OF RAIN TO THE FA. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW A
BAND OF 4"+ OVER NORTHERN PERRY AND GREENE TO CHOCTAW AND WILCOX
COUNTIES...AND ALSO ALONG THE AL/FL GULF COAST. A FFW IS BEING
CONSIDERED...ESPECIALLY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z ISSUANCE)...IFR OR LOWER CIGS IN A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA...WITH MVFR TO VFR CIGS BEING
REPORTED AT FORECAST POINTS. AM EXPECTING THE HIGHER CIGS TO LAST
INTO TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF TSRA MOVING OVER THE FA IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST BRINGING DROPS IN CIGS/VISBYS TO IFR OR
LOWER LEVELS.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED OVER CENTRAL AL SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST
MS. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 00Z NSSL WRF SHOW THIS
CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT MOVES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING HOURS. IN FACT...THESE HI-RES
MODELS ARE INDICATING ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL DEVELOPING TO RESULT IN
BOWING STRUCTURES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COMPLEX. WHILE
REGIONAL RADAR DOES NOT YET SHOW THIS CONSOLIDATION...THE GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (INITIALIZED WHERE
THE CONVECTION IS) WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. THEREFORE...WE WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES
(80-90%) FROM AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. WHILE THE BOWING
STRUCTURES DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...MLCAPES OF
LESS THAN 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH DECREASING DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES
AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST QUICKLY MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST...SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST.
THE PERSISTENT W-SW MID TO UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING IN STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-7.0 C/KM) FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. THESE
LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN PERIODS OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND A FEW
SMALL HAIL SIGNATURES ON RADAR. SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.

THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE ANTICIPATION OF A
COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING SE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...A LARGE
STRATIFORM SHIELD OF RAIN COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
FROM NW-SE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING. WE COULD SEE A
LULL IN PRECIP THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AS WE WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT
AND NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

DEEP LAYER FORCING IS FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING OVER
INLAND SE MS AND SPREAD EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWS MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING FURTHER...ON THE ORDER OF 7.0-8.0 C/KM.
MLCAPES POTENTIALLY APPROACH 1000 J/KG TOMORROW NIGHT...HOWEVER THE
AMOUNT OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EARLIER
CONVECTION. IN EITHER CASE...A GOOD DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT. THEREFORE...THE COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL CARRY THE
POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OF DAMAGING WINDS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SFC BASED
INSTABILITY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.5 INCHES COMBINED WITH
PERIODS OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL CERTAINLY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
TODAY...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE ANY SORT OF FLOOD WATCH.
MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

WENT LOWER THAN MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY BASED ON THE ABUNDANT
PRECIP AND CLOUDS. ON THE FLIP SIDE...WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR LOWS.

WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SURF HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 5 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE BEACHES. 34/JFB

.SHORT TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN CONTINUES TO BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW DUE TO A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AND MOVING RAPIDLY FROM
EAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT DEEPENING LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN WHILE PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THESE
FEATURES WILL ACT AS A CONVEYOR BELT BRINGING WATER VAPOR FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF. WINDS ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
PLAINS...IT WILL DEEPEN TO AN EXTREMELY DEEP TROUGH THAT SHOWS A
PROPENSITY TO CLOSE OFF IN THE GFS OUTPUT...AND AS COMPUTED BY THE
EURO...IT ACTUALLY DOES CLOSE OFF BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT
CROSSES THE PIEDMONT REGION. THAT WOULD BRING A MORE CERTAIN
PROSPECT OF A CLEAN SWEEP OF CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECTING BAND OF CONVECTION TO PASS EAST OF THE REGION CLOSE TO OR
BY SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW THE 850
MB TROUGH PASSING OUR REGION SO ANY POST-FRONTAL STRATIFORM RAIN
WOULD END  WITH CLEARING SKIES AROUND NOON OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY ELEVATED MOSTLY INLAND. WET BULB
ZEROES WILL PLUMMET FROM AROUND 10000 FEET AROUND SUNRISE TO ABOUT
8000 FEET OVER THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. AT THE SAME TIME THE MODELS COMPUTE LI
INCREASING FROM -4 TO 0 BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z OVER THE SAME REGION.
THIS MEANS A HAIL THREAT FOR OUR REGION IS LINGERING AS A NARROW
WINDOW AS THE MOIST STATIC ENERGY DECREASES AND WET BULB ZERO
DECREASES ALONG WITH THE CONVECTION WITH THE PASSING LINE. SO ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...SURFACE BASED
SEVERE CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF
COUNTERACTING TERMS IN THE EQUATION AND THEIR RESPECTIVE TIMING...WE
CANNOT BE THAT CERTAIN IN THE CLOSING STAGES OF THIS EVENT. THE RISK
OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL HAVE ENDED BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT SATURDAY...A COOL NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
WILL SWEEP IN BUT IT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP TRAJECTORY FROM
ALBERTA. THE TRAJECTORY WOULD BE ORIGINATING MORE FROM THE PLAINS SO
WE WOULD SEE LOWS DROPPING INTO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. A RELATIVELY CLEAR DAY WOULD ENSUE ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S SUNDAY.
77/BD

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE OCCLUDING
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
AND DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE ANOTHER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT PLAINS AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
OUR REGION AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MONDAY EVENING...THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED SUFFICIENTLY EAST OF OUR AREA TO OPEN
THE GULF UP. AS THE PLAINS SYSTEM GETS DEFLECTED NORTHEAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE JUST OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RH THROUGH
MIDWEEK KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...ZONAL
POTENTIAL ENERGY GETS A CHANCE TO BUILD UP AND CONVERT TO EDDY
KINETIC ENERGY FORMING ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AROUND EARLY
THURSDAY. EVIDENCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE FA IS
SHOWN IN THE GFS CALCULATIONS. THIS FRONT IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS COMPUTES THE FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH OUR REGION...UNLIKE THE 12Z RUN WHICH STALLED IT
AND DEVELOPED AN OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW. THE NEW OUTPUT PUTS THE GFS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND INCREASING OUR CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY CLOSE PHASE UNTIL THEN...BUT
DISPERSES FURTHER OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THIS MORNING.
WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND MORE IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED THE ADVISORY FOR INSHORE
BAYS/SOUNDS. WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE AL/NW FL
GULF WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY AS SEAS UP TO 7 FT WILL PERSIST.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 5-6 FT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR
THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS DIMINISH SUN-MON AS A SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. A MORE PREDOMINATE LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS CAN BE
EXPECTED THE STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS
TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL LATE TONIGHT. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  63  75  44  70 /  90  80  30  00  00
PENSACOLA   71  64  76  48  69 /  90  80  40  05  00
DESTIN      68  66  75  50  68 /  90  70  50  05  00
EVERGREEN   72  62  73  41  71 /  90  80  40  00  00
WAYNESBORO  77  61  72  38  72 /  90  80  20  00  00
CAMDEN      74  60  71  42  70 /  90  80  40  00  00
CRESTVIEW   71  63  76  41  73 /  90  70  50  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
514 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-291015-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
514 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
INLAND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...AND MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MINOR
FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES AND
WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-291015-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
514 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER AREA BAYS AND SOUNDS TODAY
DUE TO A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WIND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY DUE TO SEAS NEAR
7 FEET.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HIGH SEAS...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION DURING THESE TIMES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1124 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N GULF SHORES         30.32N 87.70W
03/28/2014                   BALDWIN            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER COUNTY ROAD 6 NEAR THE GULF SHORES SPORTSPLEX.

1050 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PENSACOLA               30.42N 87.22W
03/28/2014                   ESCAMBIA           FL   NEWSPAPER

            FLOODING REPORTED ON MAIN ST., PACE ST., FAIRFIELD DR.

1055 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W PENSACOLA           30.42N 87.24W
03/28/2014                   ESCAMBIA           FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF STREET FLOODING ALONG CREIGHTON RD,
            MOBILE HIGHWAY E AND L ST INTERSECTION, AND GARDEN ST.

1100 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 NW MARY ESTHER        30.44N 86.70W
03/28/2014  M69.00 MPH       OKALOOSA           FL   ASOS

            HURLBURT FIELD ASOS REPORTED 60KT GUSTS BETWEEN 11AM AND
            1106AM.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1142 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW BAGDAD            30.58N 87.04W
03/28/2014                   SANTA ROSA         FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SANTA ROSA EMS REPORTS A TREE LIMB ON A HOUSE AT 4120
            PRICE PL NEAR BAGDAD.

1030 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 S SILVERHILL          30.50N 87.75W
03/28/2014  M3.50 INCH       BALDWIN            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOST OF THIS RAINFALL OCCURRED BETWEEN 9 AND 1030AM.

1038 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW NAVARRE           30.40N 86.87W
03/28/2014                   SANTA ROSA         FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF BLOWN OFF A BUILDING ALONG STRIP MALL AT 8540
            NAVARRE PKWY. NUMEROUS CARS DAMAGED AND POWER LINES DOWN.
            HWY 98 CLOSED DUE TO DOWNED POWER LINES.

1125 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 ENE SHALIMAR          30.45N 86.56W
03/28/2014  M67.00 MPH       OKALOOSA           FL   ASOS

            EGLIN AFB ASOS REPORTED GUST OF 58KTS.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1144 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST DESTIN                  30.39N 86.50W
03/28/2014  M64.00 MPH       OKALOOSA           FL   ASOS

            DESTIN ASOS REPORTED A GUST OF 56 KTS.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1208 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 AM     FLASH FLOOD      7 ENE GULF BREEZE       30.40N 87.06W
03/28/2014                   SANTA ROSA         FL   NEWSPAPER

            VEHICLE PARTIALLY SUBMERGED NEAR THE COMMUNITY LIFE
            CENTER.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1232 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW FORT WALTON BEACH 30.41N 86.62W
03/28/2014  E80.50 MPH       OKALOOSA           FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            70KT EST. WIND GUST IN FT. WALTON BEACH. LIGHT DAMAGE TO
            FENCES AND UTILITY SHED.

1000 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WSW PENSACOLA           30.42N 87.20W
03/28/2014                   ESCAMBIA           FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS TREE BRANCHES DOWN ALONG GREGORY
            ST.

1036 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WNW NAVARRE             30.41N 86.87W
03/28/2014                   SANTA ROSA         FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF A ROOF BLOWN OFF A BUILDING AT 1918 HWY 87 S
            AT NAVARRE BEACH.

1036 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW NAVARRE           30.38N 86.88W
03/28/2014                   SANTA ROSA         FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GLASS WINDOWS BLOWN OUT NEAR BELLE MER CONDOMINIUM AT
            8269 GULF BLVD.

1038 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 SW HOLT               30.66N 86.79W
03/28/2014  M58.00 MPH       OKALOOSA           FL   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            50KT WIND GUST IN WESTERN OKALOOSA COUNTY, S OF I-10
            ALONG WITH POWER OUTAGES.

1100 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW FORT WALTON BEACH 30.41N 86.62W
03/28/2014  E80.00 MPH       OKALOOSA           FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            70KT EST. WIND GUST AT FT. WALTON BEACH. LIGHT DAMAGE TO
            FENCES AND A UTILITY SHED.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
103 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MARY ESTHER             30.41N 86.66W
03/28/2014                   OKALOOSA           FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TOP PART OF WENDYS SIGN FELL DOWN, TREES DOWN ON MARY
            ESTHER LIBRARY, PORTABLE BUILDING LEANING ON A CAR AT
            HARBORWALK VILLAGE AND TOP OF HARBORWALK AMPITHEATER FELL
            DOWN.

&&

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