Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
400 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT/TONIGHT...
DIURNAL CONVECTION GOT A SLIGHTLY EARLIER START THAN ON FRIDAY. BY
MID AFTN NMRS SHRAS/SCT TSRAS WERE PUSHING ACRS THE FL TURNPIKE WITH
WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BDRYS RACING AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION TOWARD
THE COASTAL COUNTIES. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WAS LARGELY PINNED NEAR
ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS AS ONLY A FEW CSTL SITES HAD REPORTED A
WNDSHFT FM SW TO SE.

COLLISION BTWN THE OUTFLOW BDRYS AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
OCCUR WELL BEFORE SUNSET AND SHOULD BURN OFF MOST OF THE AVAILABLE
ENERGY BY MID EVNG. LATEST OBS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
WX PATTERN WITH SHALLOW MID LVL LAPSE RATES BTWN 5.5-6.5C/KM...
STEEPEST ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE SOME DRIER MID LVL AIR HAS
WORKED ITS WAY UP FROM S FL. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK MID LVL VORT
AXIS HAS SET UP ALONG THE W FL COAST THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 5-10KTS
OF S/SW FLOW. WHILE THIS IS PRODUCING SOME PVA ACRS E CENT FL...ITS
MAGNITUDE IS QUITE LOW AND WILL DO LITTLE TO ENHANCE OVERALL STORM
STRENGTH.

WILL GO WITH A PRE 1ST PD TO COVER ONGOING PRECIP...ENDING PRECIP BY
02Z. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES AFT MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW MIN
TEMPS TO DROP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF SFC DEWPOINTS...CURRENTLY IN
THE M/U70S.

UPCOMING WEEK...(PREV DISC)
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT SETS UP FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE
DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC RIDGE SUPPRESSED BACK ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA/FLORIDA STRAITS AS THE BROAD EAST COAST TROUGH BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED. THIS PATTERN HAS BECOME THE DEFAULT SO FAR THIS
SUMMER.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE WEEK BRINGS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO NORTH FLORIDA WHERE IT HANGS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AGAINST THE STOUT ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS. PREVAILING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY HANG UP THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
ALONG THE COAST MOST AFTERNOONS IF IT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AT
ALL...AND THEN LIKELY ONLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE MORE ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT KEEPING THE
FRONTAL MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND INSTEAD BRINGING THE DRY AIR
POCKET CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE
PENINSULA. SO DESPITE WHAT OTHERWISE WOULD BE FAVORABLE FLOW...HAVE
KEPT POPS AROUND CLIMO AT 30-40 PERCENT AS THIS WOULD KEEP SOME
CONVECTION SUPPRESSED. HOWEVER IT WILL BE THE SMALL DAY TO DAY
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE RIDGE AXIS/STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW/LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE STORM COVERAGE AND
THESE ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 10/00Z...SFC WNDS E/SE 5-10KTS CSTL SITES...S/SW INTERIOR
SITES...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS WITH OCNL SFC WND G25-30KTS...MVG
NE ARND 10KTS. BTWN 10/00Z-10/02Z...SFC WNDS BCMG S ARND 5KTS...SCT
MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS. AFT 10/02Z...VFR ALL SITES...S/SW SFC
WNDS BLO 5KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL COLLAPSE WITHIN AN HR OR TWO OF
SUNSET WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE S/SW AOB 10KTS...SEAS AOB
2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE...DOMINANT PDS ARND 9SEC. OFFSHORE
MVG TSTMS THRU EARLY EVNG.

SUN-THU...PERSISTENT TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE NE CONUS WILL COMBINE
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO N FL TO KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS SUPPRESSED NEAR OR SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE NRN BAHAMAS
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SW BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL ACRS THE LCL ATLC WITH SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT
OFFSHORE. GRADIENT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE FROM FORMING...OR AT LEAST LIMITING IT TO A FEW HRS OF
AFTN S/SE FLOW ALONG THE TREASURE COAST EACH AFTN. OFFSHORE MVG
AFTN/EVNG TSTMS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY BOATING THREAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  93  76  93 /  30  40  30  30
MCO  75  95  75  96 /  20  30  20  30
MLB  76  91  75  92 /  30  40  30  20
VRB  75  92  74  91 /  30  40  30  20
LEE  76  95  76  95 /  20  30  20  30
SFB  76  96  77  96 /  20  30  20  30
ORL  76  95  76  95 /  20  30  20  30
FPR  74  92  74  92 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
RADAR/IMPACT WX.......SHARP/LASCODY