Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
948 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY/TONIGHT...SOME LARGE PRE FRONTAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA SUGGEST THE PENINSULA WILL
HAVE A HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CENTRAL FLORIDA MORNING SOUNDINGS INDEED SHOW HIGHER MOISTURE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHER
COVERAGE THAN THE LAST TWO DAYS.  500 MB TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM...
MINUS 5 DEGREES CELSIUS BUT 700 MB TEMPS AT 8 DEGREES ARE NOT AS
WARM AS FORECAST BY THE GFS.  EARLY MORNING SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...SO WHERE IT HEATS UP INTO THE LOWER 90S...THERE WILL
BE DECENT INSTABILITY. NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAY KEEP A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA FROM GETTING DEBRIS CLOUDS SO THE CURRENT POPS AT
50 PERCENT LOOK GOOD.

SOUNDINGS SHOW STORM MOTION TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
DESPITE THE HIGH MOISTURE THERE WAS SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR.  SO
EXPECT THAT A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE
STRONGER STORMS.

EXPECT THE BULK OF CONVECTION TO HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE BY EVENING BUT
WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH CLOSE BY TO THE NORTH...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS GOING UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ALREADY SOME SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR KLEE...SO THE CHANCE
FOR STORMS ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL BE STARTING EARLIER THAN
NORMAL...LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT MANY OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE MOIST
AIR MASS...BUT DURATION LOOKS SHORT DUE TO DECENT STORM MOTION...
EAST SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO OCCUR.  SOME OF
THESE GUSTS COULD SWEEP OUT WELL AHEAD OF CONVECTION AND LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND IFR CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN
THE SURROUNDING WATERS HAVE HAD MODERATE LIGHTNING AMOUNTS SO WE
SHOULD EXPECT SIMILAR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER LAND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP
A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
BEEN AROUND 15 KNOTS...BUT THE FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.  SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS OFFSHORE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A CHOPPY RIDE BACK
TO THE COAST. ALLOW EXTRA TIME WHEN RETURNING TO SAFE HARBOR AHEAD
OF STORMS MOVING OFF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SEDLOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1200 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-292200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1200 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA
WILL LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL GENERATE A LOW TO MODERATE THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY...PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL. CHECK WITH LOCAL BEACH RESCUE ON LATEST SURF CONDITIONS
AND ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH
COULD AFFECT BOATERS ON INLAND LAKES AND THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS. IF YOU SEE DARKENING SKIES TO THE WEST...MOVE TO SAFE
HARBOR. GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH
DRIER AIR BUILDING DOWN INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF SOUTHERN BREVARD AND SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES.

AS WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO FADE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO LATE WEEK...
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE NORMAL THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

WEITLICH/TS

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