Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
301 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...NEXRAD 88D SHOWS SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED STRONG
STORMS NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF ECFL THAT IS LIKELY
INHIBITING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. WITH LATE DAY SURFACE
HEATING...MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS...ESPECIALLY AS THE MORE
ACTIVE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE ENTERS ECFL...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WIND PROFILE IS RATHER WEAK SO CELL MOVEMENT WILL NOT BE
TOO QUICK AND OFTEN ERRATIC IN DIRECTION. A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE
BACK TOWARD THE COAST MAINLY NORTH OF MELBOURNE THROUGH LATE DAY.
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS REMAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO
AROUND 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLY
LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
HEAVY RAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS.

THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE INTO MID/LATE EVENING WITH CLOUD
DEBRIS THINNING OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...

THU-TUE...WEAK MID/UPR LVL WIND PATTERN CONTINUES ACRS THE SRN TIER
STATES WITH RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING WINDS SPEED AOB 30KTS. IN
FACT...OUTSIDE OF AN 80-100KT H30-H20 LIFTING JET EXTENDING FROM THE
MIDWEST INTO SRN QUEBEC...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIG JET
ENERGY ACRS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS OR THE EPAC. THE TEPID NATURE
OF THE CURRENT JET PATTERN WILL ENSURE THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE NW GOMEX AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC VIA THE FL STRAITS...WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR
CENTRAL FL THRU MID JULY.

THIS IS A TYPICAL MID SUMMER WX PATTERN...SO NO BIG SURPRISES IN
STORE THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD TROFFING PATTERN OVER
THE ERN CONUS FED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MAX WILL KEEP THE RIDGE
AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER THE S HALF OF FL THRU THU...GIVING THE EAST
CENTRAL PENINSULA ONE MORE DAY OF 40-60POPS. AS THE TROF DAMPENS AND
LIFT OUT TO THE N...THE ATLC RIDGE WILL DRIFT BACK INTO THE
CENTRAL/NRN PENINSULA WHERE IT WILL REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING OVERHEAD...THE H85-H50 STEERING FLOW
WILL BE QUITE WEAK...GENERALLY AOB 10KTS...WHILE ANY MEANINGFUL
MID/UPR LVL IMPULSES THAT MIGHT PUSH PRECIP CHANCES ABV THE 50PCT
MARK WILL BE BLOCKED OUT. WHILE WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW BOTH SEA
BREEZES TO MAKE GOOD INLAND PENETRATION...THE RESULTING SLOW STORM
MOTION WILL FURTHER LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE. POPS DIMINISHING TO AOB
40PCT ON FRI...THEN AOB 30PCT THRU THE WEEKEND.

GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF DVLPG OVER THE
ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS
BACK INTO THE SRN PENINSULA AND ALLOW A W/SWRLY FLOW PATTERN TO
RDVLP ACRS CENTRAL FL...SHIFTING THE CONCENTRATION OF DIURNAL
PRECIP BACK TO THE EAST.

MAX/MIN TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG THRU THE PD...BUT NOT BY MORE
THAN 2-3F. AFTN READINGS IN THE U80S/L90S...MRNG READINGS IN THE
L/M70S.

&&

.AVIATION...SEA BREEZE STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING SPREADING INTO THE
INTERIOR WITH A FEW MOVING BACK TOWARDS THE COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF
KMLB. PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY REDUCE VSBYS SOUTH OF MCO (VRB/FPR/SUA)
AGAIN OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH 13Z DUE TO VERY MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND CALM WIND. SEA BREEZE REGIME WITH SCT AFTN STORMS AGAIN
FOR THU.

&&

.MARINE...AFTERNOON-THU...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED NEAR THE
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WITH MAINLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. ONSHORE
FLOW AGAIN BECOMING SW/WSW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP AGAIN EARLY THU AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND WITH
WINDS ONCE AGAIN BACKING E/ESE NEAR THE COAST. THE MAIN MARINE
WEATHER CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE STORMS THAT PRODUCE LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS. THESE SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. DAYTIME HEATING STORMS OVER THE
MAINLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED MARINE DISCUSSION...

FRI-SUN...WEAK SFC/BNDRY LYR PGRAD THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
ATLC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NWD FROM THE FL STRAITS INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT WITH A PREVAILING LIGHT TO
GENTLE SERLY BREEZE KEEPING SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT
OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  90  76  88 /  30  40  20  40
MCO  75  92  75  91 /  30  50  30  50
MLB  74  88  75  88 /  20  50  20  30
VRB  72  89  74  88 /  20  50  20  30
LEE  76  92  76  91 /  30  50  30  50
SFB  76  93  76  92 /  30  50  30  50
ORL  76  93  76  92 /  30  50  30  50
FPR  73  88  73  87 /  20  50  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....VOLKMER