Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
252 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR OFFSHORE NORTHEAST VOLUSIA COUNTY MOVING
NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHENING...
...STRONGEST WINDS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...
...DANGEROUS SURF BUILDING AT THE BEACHES...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...
AS OF 2 PM...T.S. ARTHUR WAS LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES EAST NORTHEAST
OF CAPE CANAVERAL AND WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH AT AROUND 7 MPH.
ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OF THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT BUT WILL
BE REMINDED BY FAST WEST TO EAST MOVING RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING. THE
REMANENT TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHWEST LEFT BY ARTHUR WILL RESULT IN
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH MOST OF THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
TYPE SHOULD WIND DOWN FROM CHANCE OF STORMS TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEW POINTS AND AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
WILL MAKE FOR A MUGGY NIGHT.

THU-THU NIGHT...TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WELL NORTHEAST OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA
SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA. THE TRAILING TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM THE
STORM SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN THE
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODEL CHANCE POP...30 SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE IS
A LITTLE LESS TO 50 NORTH WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE HIGHER AND
HIGHER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH
FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HINDER OR NEGATE ANY SEA BREEZE
FORMATION SEBASTIAN INLET NORTH AND ONLY A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF
A SEA BREEZE TO THE SOUTH.

SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS USUALLY A WARMER/HOTTER TEMPERATURE REGIME.
NO EXCEPTION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 90S.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED ZONES DISCUSSION

FRI...LATEST NHC GUIDANCE HAS ARTHUR EAST OF THE GEORGIA
COASTLINE REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THURSDAY MORNING AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW LEFT IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THE OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
AND OFFSHORE. LACK OF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
ALSO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. HAVE
THEREFORE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

FOR THE FOURTH...OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT MAY STILL BE DELAYED...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE CAPE. STILL LOOKS TO BE A HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
ALONG THE COAST AND MID 90S INTERIOR. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING DRIER
AIR INTO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST WHICH MAY LIMIT
COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
"CHANCE" RANGE WITH 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND 40-50
PERCENT FARTHER NORTH AND INLAND. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NEAR
THE VOLUSIA/NRN BREVARD COAST THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO THE EVENING BUT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE
EVENING.

SAT-TUE...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEAKENS WITH
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING BACK NORTH AND ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS ARE MORE LIKELY. TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 90 TO LOW 90S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOW-MID 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST MOVING SHOWERS ROTATING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TOO SHORT FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR TEMPO GROUP. MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW USUALLY A GOOD SET UP FOR STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-WED NIGHT...NOAA BUOY 009...20NM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
WAS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS 19 TO 23 KNOTS AND 6 FOOT SEAS.
BUOY 010 AT 120NM OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH WAS RECORDING SOUTH WINDS
35 TO 47 KNOTS AND SEAS TO 15 FEET. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS LOCATED AT
4 AND 6NM EAST AND NORTHEAST OF PORT CANAVERAL/FORT PIERCE INLET
WERE STILL RECORDING 3 FOOT SEAS.

PLAN TO DROP THE T.S. WARNING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE OFFSHORE VOLUSIA
COUNTY...FLAGLER BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA BREVARD LINE...FOR THE
AFTERNOON MARINE FORECAST PACKAGE. THE TWO OFFSHORE ZONES FROM THE
VOLUSIA BREVARD LINE TO JUPITER INLET AND THE NEARSHORE ZONE FROM
THE VOLUSIA BREVARD LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET WILL LIKE BE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. TAPERING BACK THE NEARSHORE SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET MARINE ZONE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO A SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

THU-THU NIGHT...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS FOR AT LEAST THIS 24
HOUR PERIOD WITH THE STRONGER WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WHERE
THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE BETWEEN THE TROUGHING OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EAST TO WEST OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA IS
WEAKER.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO FRIDAY
WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OUT OF THE S/SW AROUND 5-10
KNOTS.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED MARINE DISCUSSION
SAT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVER THE WATERS. WINDS OUT OF THE S/SE DURING THE DAY AND THEN
VEERING TO THE S/SW AT NIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  96  76  94 /  50  50  20  40
MCO  76  95  76  95 /  40  40  20  40
MLB  77  92  76  91 /  40  40  20  40
VRB  76  92  74  91 /  30  40  10  30
LEE  75  96  75  96 /  30  50  20  30
SFB  76  96  77  95 /  40  50  20  40
ORL  76  96  76  95 /  40  40  20  40
FPR  75  93  73  91 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 3 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

IMPACT WX/TROPICAL...CRISTALDI
PUBLIC SERVICE...CARTWRIGHT
FORECASTS...WIMMER

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