Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
935 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND NY STRETCHES SOUTHWEST ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN GETTING A LOT OF ATTENTION THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS LOCATED WELL
EAST (230 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE) OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. REFER TO THE LATEST ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK...ISSUED EVERY 6 HOURS STARTING APPROX 2AM...FOR
MORE INFO.

THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED CLOUDINESS OVER THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND OUR OFFSHORE WATERS MOVING SOUTH WITH AN
INCREASING TREND IN COVERAGE.

A LONG RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS WITH A STORM OR TWO MOVING SOUTH
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE THE GULF STREAM HAS ALREADY HELPED TO
DESTABILIZE THE LOWEST LAYERS.

UPDATE...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH SHOULD KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHEAST FOR THE
INTERIOR...ORLANDO WEST...MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 FOR VOLUSIA COUNTY WOULD BE THE
ONLY CHANGE MADE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
TODAY-TONIGHT...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA IS PROJECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY BEEN IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO SOME
NORTHERLY SHEAR. THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE ON THE TYPICALLY
SUPPRESSED WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL NOT GO
ALONG WITH THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ADVECTING HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. INSTEAD HAVE
LEANED CLOSER TO THE NAM POPS AND WILL SHOW 20 PERCENT NORTH AND 50
PERCENT SOUTH INTERIOR FOR TODAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A QUITE WARM DAY
AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S.

WITH THE CLOSED LOW GETTING CLOSER TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
STAY BACKED ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE SCATTERED ATLANTIC
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM PUSHING ASHORE...BUT WILL SHOW SLIGHT COASTAL
SHOWER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUITE
MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AND EVEN A FEW SPOTS IN THE UPPER
70S.

MON-TUE...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST TAKES UP RESIDENCY NEARBY. THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE FAVORED HERE OVER THE GFS. THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT
STRONGER WITH MID-LEVEL FEATURES NEAR THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WANTS
TO BRING THE SURFACE LOW ONTO THE COAST ON MON...WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THIS FEATURE JUST OFF OF THE COAST THROUGH THIS TIME. IT
NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED THAT THERE REMAINS A GREAT BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THIS PERIOD THAT WILL AFFECT MANY WEATHER PARAMETERS. HAVE GONE
WITH ECMWF WINDS IN THE GRIDS. 500MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
WARM AT BETWEEN -6C/-7C. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED POP MENTION IN
THE FORECAST WITH GREATEST CHANCES INLAND AND SOUTH FROM NEAR
ORLANDO ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 102 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

WED-SAT...OBVIOUSLY DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHAT HAPPENS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE
FAVORED ECMWF ON WED BEGINS TO LIFT THE LOW SLOWLY NORTHWARD
REMAINING OFF OF THE FLORIDA COAST AND SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO
LATE WEEK. THE RESULTING STEERING FLOW PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR A
MORE ACTIVE DAILY WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THAT WOULD STACK UP STORMS
ON THE EASTERN PENINSULA LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCATTERED/CLIMO
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR AT THE TERMINALS. THINK THAT STORM CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ARE STILL TOO LOW TO PUT MENTION IN THE
INTERIOR TERMINALS YET. COASTAL TERMINALS FROM KVRB-KSUA COULD
HAVE SEA BREEZE STORMS FORM CLOSE ENOUGH FOR VICINITY THUNDER
MENTION...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE CONVECTIVE TRENDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...THE NOAA BUOYS 009 AND 010 WERE RECORDING
NORTHWEST WINDS6 TO 14 KNOTS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS
BUOYS 4 AND 6 MILES OFF THE BEACH WERE RECORDING 1/ONE FOOT SEAS.

SHOULD START TO SEE A NORTHERLY SWELL PROPAGATING INTO THE NORTHERN
WATERS LATE AFTERNOON OR DURING THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TODAY/TONIGHT...PRESENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL BENIGN WITH A NORTHWEST
TO WEST WIND FLOW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE MODELS INDICATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY WELL OFFSHORE GEORGIA/NORTHEAST FLORIDA
SHIFTING STEADILY SOUTH AND INCREASING NORTHWEST/NORTH FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF IN THEIR 12Z MONDAY
POSITION...ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THOUGH AND FOR NOW
WILL INDICATE 15 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTH OFFSHORE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MON-WED...UNCERTAINTY WILL EXIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW THAT IS FORECAST JUST EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD SHOWS LITTLE TO ERRATIC MOVEMENT. A
MAINLY NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF WIND MON-MON NIGHT WITH THE CENTER
OF THIS CIRCULATION ENTERING OFFSHORE WATERS TUE-TUE NIGHT. FOR
NOW HAVE CAPPED WIND SPEEDS AT 15 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT IF
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS...WIND SPEEDS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP. THE SAME WOULD BE TRUE OF SEAS AND FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-4 FT OFFSHORE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS/SEAS INVOF STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  77  90  75 /  20  20  30  20
MCO  94  75  92  74 /  20  20  30  20
MLB  91  77  89  75 /  20  20  40  30
VRB  91  75  88  73 /  30  20  40  30
LEE  94  75  94  75 /  30  20  30  20
SFB  95  76  94  75 /  20  20  30  20
ORL  93  76  93  76 /  20  20  30  20
FPR  91  74  88  72 /  30  20  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-300000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME. THIS WILL DECREASE
THE NORMAL DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN
TODAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY AROUND OKEECHOBEE...THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
BASIN AND INLAND FROM THE TREASURE COAST...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
BEING FORECAST. A FEW STORMS ON THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY COULD BE STRONG THOUGH AND PRODUCE GUSTY 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION
IS FORECAST TO BE TO THE SOUTH AT NEAR 20 MPH. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR GUSTY STORMS OR SQUALLS WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
ATLANTIC LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
CAPE CANAVERAL. THIS WILL DRIVE A LONGSHORE CURRENT SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE COAST AND COULD LEAD TO STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER WELL OFFSHORE NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY....BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE MAIN
EFFECTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WOULD BE INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME IMPACTS TO COASTAL LAND
AREAS...WITH INCREASING WINDS...SURF...RIP CURRENTS AND GUSTY SQUALLS
MOVING ONSHORE.

BE SURE TO MONITOR THE LATEST OUTLOOKS AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM FROM BOTH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AND YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MELBOURNE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY.

LASCODY/CRISTALDI

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