Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
324 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...ANOMALOUS DEEP LAYER NLY FLOW COUPLED WITH HIGH PWAT AND
AN APPROACHING TUTT FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS WL KEEP SCT MENTION OF
PCP INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF LATE
STORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS WL FORCE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY INLAND. LTST
HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LATE AFTN/EVE DEVELOPMENT WITH SLY
MOTION ASSISTED BY NUMEROUS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL THROUGH AROUND 10 PM.

SAT-SUN...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) WL BE WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE INITIALLY OFF THE GA/SC COAST SAT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTHWARD TO OFF OF THE NE FLORIDA EAST COAST SUN. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BELOW 5 MPH EACH MORNING WILL BECOME
ONSHORE LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. PLENTY
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF BETWEEN 1.80" AND 2.00" EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AROUND -8C. STEERING FLOW FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IS FORECAST OUT OF THE NORTH. PERIODIC
MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AROUND 50 PERCENT AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES. HEAT INDICES MOST PLACES WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER
90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

MON-THU...A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WITH VERY
LIGHT STEERING FLOW FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS FORECAST UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. EXPECT THE DAILY EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE REGIMES
TO CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST WITH WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION...
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INITIATE TS W OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WITH SCT TSRA DVLPG INTERIOR AND MVG SWD NR 15KTS. ISOLD/SCT
IFR TSRAS ALNG THE SEA BREEZE FM KMCO-KOBE MVG S 15KTS WITH SFC
WND G35KTS+...CONTG THRU 28/02Z. AFT 28/02Z...SLOWLY BCMG VFR ALL
SITES...WITH SFC WNDS LGT/VRBL.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
TO GENTLE N TO NW BREEZE. PRIMARY MARINE WX HAZARD WILL BE
ISOLD TSTMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS
NEAR COAST BUILDING TO NR 3 FT WELL OFFSHORE SAT.

SAT-MON...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING IN PLACE. LIGHT OFFSHORE
MORNING/EVENING FLOW WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION. WINDS MAINLY
AOB 10 KTS. SEAS AOB 3 FT. THE MAIN MARINER HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  94  76  92 /  30  30  20  40
MCO  75  94  76  95 /  30  40  20  40
MLB  75  91  76  91 /  30  40  20  30
VRB  73  92  74  91 /  20  40  20  30
LEE  76  94  77  95 /  30  30  20  40
SFB  76  96  77  96 /  30  30  20  40
ORL  77  95  77  95 /  30  30  20  40
FPR  72  90  73  91 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....WIMMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1210 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-272000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1210 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 90S WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO START ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AROUND
10 MPH. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY SHOULD OCCUR DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS BOUNDARIES INTERACT ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. THE MAIN STORM HAZARD WILL BE
FROM FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES IN A FEW STRONG STORMS. WIND GUSTS
40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
A FEW OF THE STRONGER AND SLOWER MOVING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF DUMPING 2 OR 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. CONSIDERABLE STANDING WATER CAN BE EXPECTED
ON SOME ROADWAYS...SO MOTORISTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS POTENTIAL
DRIVING HAZARD.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM OVER LAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH. WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH A FEW STORMS THAT AFFECT INLAND LAKES. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM
CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. REMEMBER THAT STRONG WINDS CAN OCCUR
WELL AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH A
STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THEY WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

LASCODY/UPDATE JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
536 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     HAIL             5 NW BUENA VENTURA LAKE 28.39N 81.41W
06/27/2014  E0.25 INCH       ORANGE             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL. REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER.

&&

MRV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
602 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W APOPKA              28.68N 81.57W
06/27/2014                   ORANGE             FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            METAL ROOF BLOWN OFF A STORAGE BUILDING/GARAGE AT CUSTOM
            FOLIAGE SERVICES. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

MRV

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