Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
323 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...MID TO LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED INITIALLY
WEST OF I-95 AND OVER THE INTERIOR AS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WL FORCE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. LTST HRRR RUN
CONTINUES TO SHOW A LATE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH
SLY MOTION ASSISTED BY NUMEROUS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL THROUGH AROUND 9 PM.

FRI-SAT...PRESENCE OF A SFC TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLC SEABOARD INTO THE
CENTRAL FL AREA WL ACT TO SUPPRESS HIGH PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. DEVELOPMENT OF SCT STORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST
LOCALLY. A CONTINUATION OF N TO NNW STEERING LEVEL WINDS WL KEEP A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN PLACE WITH LATE DIURNALLY FORCED
STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE AREAS SOUTH OF METRO ORLANDO TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE INCLUDING THE TREASURE/SPACE COASTS. COVERAGE WILL BE
IN THE MID SCT RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AMTS NORTH OF ORLANDO DUE
TO SOME DRYING.

SUN-WED...(FROM PREV DISC) THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST IS FORECAST BY THE GFS AS WELL AS RECENT
DEPICTIONS OF THE ECMWF TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE
GA/FL COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
FORECAST OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
AREAWIDE WITH WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD INITIATE TS ALNG TO W OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AFT 26/21Z SCT IFR TSRAS DVLPG INTERIOR MVG S/SE NR
15KTS. ISOLD IFR TSRAS DVLPG ALNG THE SEA BREEZE W OF KMLB-KOBE
MVG S 10TO 15KTS. AFT 26/22Z...ISOLD IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA...SFC
WND G35KTS+...CONTG THRU 27/02Z. AFT 27/02Z...BCMG VFR ALL
SITES...SFC WNDS LGT/VRBL.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS JUST SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE OFFSHORE BREEZE. PRIMARY
MARINE WX HAZARD WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING TSTMS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. LIGHT OFFSHORE MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...BECOMING OFFSHORE AGAIN IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS. SEAS AOB 3 FT.
PRIMARY MARINE WX HAZARD WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SAT-SUN...THE RIDGE AXIS GETS NUDGED FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. LIGHT OFFSHORE
MORNING/EVENING FLOW WITH ONSHORE FLOW SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN EACH DAY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION. AGAIN WINDS MAINLY AOB
10 KTS. SEAS AOB 3 FT. THE MAIN MARINER HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  94  74  94 /  30  30  30  30
MCO  75  94  75  95 /  30  40  30  40
MLB  74  92  74  91 /  30  40  30  30
VRB  73  92  74  91 /  30  40  30  30
LEE  76  95  77  94 /  30  30  30  40
SFB  76  95  77  96 /  30  40  30  40
ORL  77  95  78  96 /  30  40  30  40
FPR  72  90  72  91 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...PENDERGRAST
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER...WIMMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1203 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-262215-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1203 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
A NORTHWEST WIND WILL DELAY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION
UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. ONCE THE SEA BREEZE HAS FORMED IT
WILL PUSH WEST SLOWLY DUE TO A PREVAILING NORTHWEST WIND OF AROUND
10 MPH. INITIALLY SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL FORM AT
THE COAST. AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE COAST THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. STORMS WILL START DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR
FROM SAINT CLOUD TO SANFORD...DELAND AND WEST BY 4 PM IN THE
INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE INTERIOR. IF THE
DEVELOPING STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TAP INTO THE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR ABOVE 10000 FEET THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60
MPH...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM.
THE INTERIOR STORMS WILL INITIALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
10 MPH THEN MORE TO THE SOUTH AS THEY DEVELOP MORE HEIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THOUGH WAVE CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUBDUED...
A SMALL EAST SWELL AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDAL EFFECTS WILL CAUSE A
LOW TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK. THIS RISK WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR
ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES. CHECK WITH OCEAN RESCUE
PERSONNEL BEFORE ENTERING THE ATLANTIC.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM OVER LAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS. SOME WILL ALSO AFFECT THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

LASCODY/UPDATE WIMMER

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