Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
239 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS...
...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS...
...MUCH COLDER AND STAYING BREEZY OVERNIGHT...
...WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...A BAND OF FAST MOVING PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
THREATS CONTINUE TO BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING OVER THE AREA EXPECT
WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO BE SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH UPPER 30S FORECAST NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR/VOLUSIA COAST.
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE INTERIOR...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. UPPER 40S OVER
MUCH OF BREVARD COUNTY EXPECTED WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FOR LOWS
OVER THE TREASURE COAST. COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER 30S POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH COOLEST READINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
TOWARDS SUNRISE. HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR BOTH LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES FOR LATE NIGHT WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 30 AND 35
DEGREES. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S WILL
BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AS FAR SOUTH AS BREVARD AND SOUTHERN
OSCEOLA COUNTIES.

FRI...PREVIOUS...MERIDIONAL JET OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL COMBINE
WITH A STRONG ZONAL JET OVER THE SE CONUS TO PUSH A LARGE HI PRES
RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS INTO THE SE CONUS. DEEP N/NW FLOW
GENERATED BY THE RIDGE WILL PUSH A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ACRS
CENTRAL FL...GFS HINTING AT A 25C SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DVLPG IN THE
H90-H70 LYR OVERHEAD. DESPITE NEAR FULL SUN...THE NRLY FLOW WILL
GENERATE A STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THAT WILL KEEP MAX
TEMPS A SOLID 15F BLO AVG...L/M50S N OF I-4 AND U50S/L60S SPACE AND
TREASURE COASTS.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E/NE OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE
WRN ATLC...THE RESULTING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY THE COOL
AIR AS WINDS VEER TO THE NE AND BEGIN TO PUSH WARM OCEAN AIR BACK
ONSHORE. MIN TEMPS ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS AS WELL AS
THE NE SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL RECOVER TO WITHIN A DEG OR TWO
OF CLIMO AVG (U40S/L50S)...INTERIOR WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGS BLO AVG
ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR (L/M40S).

SAT-SUN NIGHT...LARGE EASTERN CONUS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLC IN ZONAL FLOW BEFORE THE LARGE H50 POLAR VORTEX BEGINS
TO DESCEND FROM CTRL-ERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CTRL AND NERN CONUS.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND INTO NERN
CONUS WILL AID IN CARVING OUT THIS MASSIVE FEATURE WHILE DRAGGING AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT DEEP INTO THE SERN CONUS...AND ON FLORIDA'S
DOORSTEP...BY 12Z MON. IN THE MEANTIME...ONSHORE FLOW WILL MODIFY
TEMPS AS OVERRUNNING SETUP DEVELOPS BEGINNING SAT NIGHT. INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE WWD AND ONSHORE FROM THE ATLC AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE MOVES OVERHEAD. INCREASE IN WAA UPGLIDE FROM LOW-MID
LEVEL SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW BREAKOUT OF SOME LIGHT STRATIFORM PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA ST NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MON-THU (MODIFIED PREV)...REINFORCING COLD OUTBREAK REMAINS ON TAP
FOR MON-TUE AS ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON INTO CENTRAL
FL MON NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE M/U30S OVER PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR N OF I-4 ...L/M40S ACROSS THE SPACE AND TREASURE
COASTS. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 60F MARK OVER ALL
BUT THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST ON TUESDAY.

THE LARGE NOAM POLAR VORTEX WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/RETREAT ENE LATE
TUE AS CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL FLATTEN AND
BECOME ZONAL ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH AND FL. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER BACK TO
NEAR AVG WED-THU AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST AND FORCES LCL WINDS TO VEER ONSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY AS A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.

A BAND OF PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS OVER 34 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KTS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND
INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS OFFSHORE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.
SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD 10-12 FT
OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM LATE OVERNIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL GO INTO EFFECT EVERYWHERE ELSE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS LATER THIS EVENING. VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAST OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD. LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

INLAND LAKE BOATERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER OPEN WATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT BOATING HERE IS LESS THAN
IDEAL AS ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...PREVIOUS MODIFIED...HAZARDOUS/DANGEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS. A STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ERN CONUS
AND PUSH A TIGHT SFC PGRAD ACRS THE LCL ATLC. A FRESH TO STRONG
NWRLY BREEZE WILL START THE DAY...BCMG MODERATE TO FRESH WHILE
VEERING TO THE N/NE BY LATE AFTN. THE OPPOSING NRLY WIND AND SRLY
GULFSTREAM COMPONENTS WILL GENERATE ROUGH SEAS BTWN 6-9FT NEARSHORE
AND UP TO 12FT OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AND E FRI
OVERNIGHT BCMG MODERATE OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE W
ATLC AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 5-6FT NEARSHORE
AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE.

BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS INTO EARLY SAT AS NRLY WINDS ARE
SLOW TO ABATE AS THEY VEER TO THE NE. WHILE SOME SLIGHT DECREASE IN
WINDS/SEAS WILL OCCUR SAT NIGHT SUN...STILL LOOKING AS CAUTIONARY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING AS SEAS REMAIN NEAR 6FT WELL OFFSHORE.
INCREASING SWRLY FLOW SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY NW-NRLY SURGE MON-MON NIGHT...LEADING TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS
REDEVELOPING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PRESS THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS TONIGHT 15-20 MPH AND
FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE
PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. COOLEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.

FRI...COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUE TO FILTER DOWN THE
PENINSULA WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST PLACES
...EXCEPT LOWER 60S TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.
DISPERSIONS WILL BE GENERALLY GOOD TO VERY GOOD AS 20 FT WINDS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 30-35 PERCENT FOR 2-4
HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE ERC NUMBERS HAVE NOT BEEN
AVAILABLE FOR SOME TIME AND WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL FOR MANY AREAS
...CONSENSUS AMONG SURROUNDING OFFICES IS TO HOLD OFF ON A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE A FIRE
SENSITIVE DAY GIVEN THE DRIER AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...VERY WARM AND UNSEASONAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. SEE
RECORDS BELOW.

MCO 86 DEGREES IN 1924.
DAB 82 DEGREES IN 2006, 1937.
VRB 86 DEGREES IN 1996.
MLB 85 DEGREES IN 1939.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  39  54  46  70 /  50  10  10  10
MCO  44  58  46  73 /  40  10  10  10
MLB  47  59  54  73 /  40  10  10  10
VRB  53  61  54  73 /  50  10  10  20
LEE  38  54  41  71 /  40  10  10  10
SFB  43  57  46  72 /  40  10  10  10
ORL  43  57  46  72 /  40  10  10  10
FPR  54  61  55  73 /  50  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY      FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1115 AM EST THU JAN 2 2014

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-030200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1115 AM EST THU JAN 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY GUST 20 TO
25 MPH...CAUSING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON INLAND LAKES. HOWEVER...GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE AFTER SUNSET BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND CAUSE ROUGH CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. IF ENOUGH HEATING AND
INSTABILITY DEVELOP...A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
SINCE ATMOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASING. SHOWER AND STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A CONTINUED EAST SWELL AND ASTRONOMICAL EFFECTS FROM THE NEW MOON
WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK AT MODERATE. ONLY SWIM IN THE OCEAN
NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS SURGING TO 25 KNOTS...AND FREQUENT GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR GREATER...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

.EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH BEHIND THE
STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS BETWEEN
30 AND 35 DEGREES OVER LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE
FRIDAY. PERSONS WHO WILL BE OUTDOORS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING SHOULD DRESS APPROPRIATELY FOR THE COLD WEATHER...INCLUDING
A HAT...GLOVES AND SUFFICIENTLY WARM CLOTHING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER
THE WEEKEND BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. ANOTHER NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WIND SURGE IS FORECAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON
IF NECESSARY.

LASCODY/CRISTALDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
241 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014

FLZ045-147-022015-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ORANGE-
241 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH OVER NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...EXTREME EASTERN
ORANGE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 315 PM EST.

AT 234 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
TITUSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE TITUSVILLE...MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE AND KENNEDY
SPACE CENTER.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2850 8073 2852 8073 2852 8077 2848 8076
      2840 8090 2860 8102 2861 8096 2867 8096
      2879 8084 2879 8078 2870 8071 2868 8067
      2871 8070 2874 8071 2876 8074 2879 8075
      2880 8073 2859 8057
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 239DEG 39KT 2858 8087

KELLY