River Flood Warning 1, NWS Melbourne, FL

970 
WGUS82 KMLB 291502
FLSMLB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL 
1102 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR...

RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR TO RISE
TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN MINOR 
FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OVER THE BASIN 
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS COULD CAUSE FURTHER RISES...INCREASING 
THE THREAT TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.  

FLC069-127-011502-
/O.CON.KMLB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ASTF1.1.ER.140929T0300Z.140930T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1102 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
* THE ST JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE. 

*AT 2.8 FEET, MINOR FLOODING OCCURS TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN LOW 
LYING AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.  

&&

             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 7 AM EST/8AM EDT
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT

ST. JOHNS RIVER
 ASTOR       2.8   2.8  MON 10 AM   2.9    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8

&&

LAT...LON  2910 8142 2935 8157 2932 8169 2908 8150

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

584 
WGUS82 KMLB 292012
FLSMLB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL 
412 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR...

RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR TO RISE TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OVER THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS COULD CAUSE FURTHER RISES...INCREASING THE THREAT TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.

FLC069-127-012012-
/O.CON.KMLB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ASTF1.1.ER.140929T0300Z.140930T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
412 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ST JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

*AT 3.2 FEET, WATER SURROUNDS MANY LOW LYING HOMES NEAR THE RIVER.
WATER COVERS MANY YARDS AND LOW LYING ROADS NEAR THE RIVER.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 7 AM EST/8AM EDT
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT

ST. JOHNS RIVER
 ASTOR       2.8   2.9  MON 03 PM   3.2    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9

&&

LAT...LON  2910 8142 2935 8157 2932 8169 2908 8150

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

JRC/AJC

090 
WGUS82 KMLB 292016 CCA
FLSMLB

FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL 
416 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR...

RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR TO RISE TO 
MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
WITHIN MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OVER 
THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS COULD CAUSE FURTHER RISES...
INCREASING THE THREAT TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG 
THE RIVER.

FLC069-127-012012-
/O.CON.KMLB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ASTF1.1.ER.140929T0300Z.140930T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
416 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ST JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

*AT 3.2 FEET, WATER SURROUNDS MANY LOW LYING HOMES NEAR THE RIVER.
WATER COVERS MANY YARDS AND LOW LYING ROADS NEAR THE RIVER.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 7 AM EST/8AM EDT
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT

ST. JOHNS RIVER
 ASTOR       2.8   2.9  MON 03 PM   3.2    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9

&&

LAT...LON  2910 8142 2935 8157 2932 8169 2908 8150

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

JRC/AJC

672 
WGUS82 KMLB 301533
FLSMLB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL 
1133 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR...

RECENT HEAVY RAINS ALONG WITH TIDAL EFFECTS AND NORTHERLY WINDS THAT 
INHIBIT FLOW DOWNSTREAM ARE EXPECTED THE KEEP THE RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD
STAGE INTO THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE BASIN OR 
UPSTREAM COULD CAUSE FURTHER SLIGHT RISES INTO THE LATE WEEK.


FLC069-127-021533-
/O.CON.KMLB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ASTF1.1.ER.140929T0300Z.141001T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1133 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ST JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 

*AT 2.8 FEET, MINOR FLOODING OCCURS TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN LOW 
LYING AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.  

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 7 AM EST/8AM EDT
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

ST. JOHNS RIVER
 ASTOR       2.8   2.9  TUE 10 AM   3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.9


&&

LAT...LON  2910 8142 2935 8157 2932 8169 2908 8150

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

GLITTO

742 
WGUS82 KMLB 010204
FLSMLB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL 
1004 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR...

RECENT HEAVY RAINS ALONG WITH TIDAL EFFECTS AND NORTHERLY WINDS THAT 
INHIBIT FLOW DOWNSTREAM ARE EXPECTED THE KEEP THE RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD
STAGE INTO THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE BASIN OR 
UPSTREAM COULD CAUSE FURTHER SLIGHT RISES INTO THE LATE WEEK.

FLC069-127-030204-
/O.CON.KMLB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ASTF1.1.ER.140929T0300Z.141002T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1004 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ST JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 

* AT 2.8 FEET, MINOR FLOODING OCCURS TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN LOW 
LYING AREAS ALONG THE RIVER. 

&&

             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 7 AM EST/8AM EDT
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

ST. JOHNS RIVER
 ASTOR       2.8   2.9  TUE 09 PM   3.1    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9

&&

LAT...LON  2910 8142 2935 8157 2932 8169 2908 8150

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

180 
WGUS82 KMLB 011427
FLSMLB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL 
1027 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

...RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR...

RECENT HEAVY RAINS ALONG WITH TIDAL EFFECTS AND NORTHERLY WINDS THAT 
INHIBIT FLOW DOWNSTREAM ARE EXPECTED THE KEEP THE RIVER NEARLY STEADY
IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE BASIN OR UPSTREAM COULD CAUSE FURTHER SLIGHT RISES INTO LATE WEEK.

FLC069-127-031427-
/O.CON.KMLB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ASTF1.1.ER.140929T0300Z.141001T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1027 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ST JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR.

* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 

*AT 2.5 FEET, WATER BEGINS TO COVER DOCKS AT SOUTH MOON FISH CAMP.
WATER BEGINS TO MOVE INTO YARDS IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.

*AT 2.8 FEET, MINOR FLOODING OCCURS TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN LOW
LYING AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.

&&

             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 7 AM EST/8AM EDT
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON

ST. JOHNS RIVER
 ASTOR       2.8   2.9  WED 09 AM   3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0


&&

LAT...LON  2910 8142 2935 8157 2932 8169 2908 8150

$$

GLITTO

088 
WGUS82 KMLB 021439
FLSMLB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL 
1039 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR...

RECENT HEAVY RAINS ALONG WITH TIDAL EFFECTS AND NORTHERLY WINDS THAT
INHIBIT FLOW DOWNSTREAM ARE EXPECTED THE KEEP THE RIVER NEARLY STEADY
IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE BASIN OR UPSTREAM COULD CAUSE FURTHER SLIGHT RISES INTO LATE WEEK.

FLC069-127-041439-
/O.CON.KMLB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ASTF1.1.ER.140929T0300Z.141001T0730Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1039 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ST JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.

*AT 2.5 FEET, WATER BEGINS TO COVER DOCKS AT SOUTH MOON FISH CAMP.
WATER BEGINS TO MOVE INTO YARDS IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.

*AT 2.8 FEET, MINOR FLOODING OCCURS TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN LOW 
LYING AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 7 AM EST/8AM EDT
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE

ST. JOHNS RIVER
 ASTOR       2.8   2.9  THU 09 AM   2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9

&&

LAT...LON  2910 8142 2935 8157 2932 8169 2908 8150

$$

JRC

734 
WGUS82 KMLB 031428
FLSMLB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL 
1028 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014

...RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR...

NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY 
AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS AND TIDAL EFFECTS WILL 
ACT TO LIMIT THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW OF THE WATER AND KEEP RIVER LEVELS 
NEARLY STEADY OVER THE WEEKEND. ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN RIVER LEVELS 
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER 
AT ASTOR. 

FLC069-127-051428-
/O.CON.KMLB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ASTF1.1.ER.140929T0300Z.141001T0730Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1028 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ST JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR.

* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 

*AT 2.5 FEET, WATER BEGINS TO COVER DOCKS AT SOUTH MOON FISH CAMP.
WATER BEGINS TO MOVE INTO YARDS IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.

*AT 2.8 FEET, MINOR FLOODING OCCURS TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN LOW 
LYING AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.  

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 7 AM EST/8AM EDT
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   SAT    SUN    MON    TUE    WED

ST. JOHNS RIVER
 ASTOR       2.8   2.8  FRI 09 AM   2.9    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.8


&&

LAT...LON  2910 8142 2935 8157 2932 8169 2908 8150

$$

GLITTO

738 
WGUS82 KMLB 041353
FLSMLB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL 
953 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014

...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR...

NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY 
AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS AND TIDAL EFFECTS WILL 
ACT TO LIMIT THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW OF THE WATER AND KEEP RIVER LEVELS 
NEARLY STEADY OVER THE WEEKEND. ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN RIVER LEVELS 
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER 
AT ASTOR. 

FLC069-127-050000-
/O.EXT.KMLB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-141005T0000Z/
/ASTF1.1.ER.140929T0300Z.141001T0730Z.141004T1800Z.NR/
953 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
* THE ST JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING. 

*AT 2.5 FEET, WATER BEGINS TO COVER DOCKS AT SOUTH MOON FISH CAMP.
WATER BEGINS TO MOVE INTO YARDS IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.

*AT 2.8 FEET, MINOR FLOODING OCCURS TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN LOW 
LYING AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.  

&&

             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 7 AM EST/8AM EDT
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   SUN    MON    TUE    WED    THU

ST. JOHNS RIVER
 ASTOR       2.8   2.8  SAT 09 AM   2.7    2.7    2.7    2.7    2.7

&&

LAT...LON  2910 8142 2935 8157 2932 8169 2908 8150

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
313 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH STORMS...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...RADAR DETECTING A STEADY STREAM OF SHOWERS IN DEEP
EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC...COMING ASHORE AND MAKING IT
WELL INTO THE INTERIOR. MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2 AND 2.25 INCHES AND 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
-6 DEGREES CELSIUS. PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES EVENING...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT
THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS END BY LATE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL HAVE BEEN WELL WORKED OVER AND A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MIN
CROSSES OVERHEAD DAMPENING CONVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS. LOWS IN THE
MID 70S EXCEPT FOR THE COAST COCOA BEACH SOUTH WHERE IT SOULD BE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...THE LOW AND MID 70S FROM THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF INDIAN RIVER SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES ACROSS OSCEOLA AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES TO THE KISSIMMEE RIVER.

MON-TUE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPING A LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVING IT EAST NORTHEAST OFF OF GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD THE
SYSTEM MAINTAINS THE WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE 12Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2
AND 2.25 INCHES THROUGH A 10 MPH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM JUST OFF
THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10000 FEET. FORECAST POPS FOR BOTH MON AND
TUE LOOKED A LITTLE LOW CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
SUPPORT CROSSING OVERHEAD THEREFORE MANUALLY ADJUSTED POPS FOR
BOTH DAYS TO 60 AREAWIDE WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BOTH DAYS. TOOK A
DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE DAILY HIGH EACH GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING BACK DAYTIME HEATING A BIT.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN US WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...BRINGING STEERING FLOW AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME HINT OF THE
LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC JUST TO THE EAST...FOR
THE MOST PART THE FLOW HAS BECOME STEADILY EAST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC.

CIRA/AMSU WATER VAPOR SAT SHOWS DRIER PWAT AIR FINALLY ENCROACHING
ON EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. PWATS SHOULD DROP
FROM THE JUICY 2.2-2.3" RANGE WE'VE BEEN IN FOR MOST OF THE WEEK TO
A STILL MOIST BUT MORE REASONABLE 1.9-2.0".

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH THE
ONGOING SCT ATLANTIC AND COASTAL SHOWERS THIS MORNING TRANSLATING
QUICKLY INLAND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. POPS 30 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VOLUSIA COUNTY WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LINGERS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL BANDS MAY SET UP ALONG THE
COAST...OR FURTHER NORTH INTO FLAGLER LIKE FRIDAY AND SAT. POPS
40-50 PERCENT FOR THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE AT 60 PERCENT
WEST OF I-4 AND LAKE COUNTY WHERE VEERING FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM RACING QUITE AS QUICKLY WEST AS YESTERDAY. AS WITH THE
PAST WEEK...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES...MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED ATLANTIC SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW
BRUSHING THE COAST FROM BREVARD SOUTHWARDS.

MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO E CENTRAL FL WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS AL/GA AND N FL. 00Z GFS INDICATE SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE FL-GA BORDER WITH LOW LVL
SE-SSE FLOW VEERING QUICKLY TO THE S-SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
MID LVL S/W AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT TRACKING EASTWARD TWD THE FL WEST
COAST IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN WITH
STORMS WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS. FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS
THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL. HAVE TRIMMED HIGH TEMPS FROM GUID A FEW DEGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S.

TUESDAY...THE MID LVL S/W WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE GA/SC COAST WITH
SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. TRAILING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WITH WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW FROM 25-30 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST SHOULD AGAIN SET UP HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
KEEP POPS AROUND 60 PCT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND ATLC WATERS. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SFC
HEATING COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. IF STORMS
DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAIN THERE WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN ON TUE.

WED-THU...SOMEWHAT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK
MAINLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE AS A SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH TOWARD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BY WED NIGHT INTO THU. SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING TO THE
AIRMASS AS LOW LVL WINDS BECOME N-NE WED INTO THU. GFS INDICATES
MORE DRYING BUT ECMWF DOES ALSO BEGIN TO SHOW SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS
NRN SECTIONS BY LATE WED/THU. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR SRN SECTIONS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE FOR LATE WEEK.

FRI-SAT...ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRI
INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM THE 00Z GFS TO THE
FASTER ECMWF. WILL LEAN TWD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS WITH HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AROUND 50 PCT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO E CENTRAL FL FOR SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM 22Z-02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT...THE NOAA BUOYS...SCRIPPS BUOYS AND CMAN BUOYS WERE
RECORDING EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET OUT
TO 20NM AND TO 4 FEET AT BUOY 010 120NM OFF NEW SMYRNA BEACH.

TONIGHT...EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS CONTINUES AND 2 TO 3
FOOT SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT.

MON-TUE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF A FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA AND OFF
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TUE NIGHT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE
AND 2 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION.
TODAY-TONIGHT...STEADY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW 10-15KTS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER MOST OF THE WATERS THOUGH WINDS NEAR THE VOLUSIA COAST STILL
REMAIN STUBBORNLY BACKED NORTH-NORTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THIS WEDGE AND THOSE THAT DO CONTINUE TO VEER
WINDS TO THE EAST RATHER QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE FORECAST TREND FOR SYNOPTIC FLOW TO VEER MORE SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME...THINK THIS AREA WILL FINALLY JOIN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES MORE
BACKED THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SCATTERED ATLANTIC
SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE. SEAS 3-4FT WITH
DOMINANT PERIODS 7-8SEC EARLY BECOMING 9SEC THIS EVENING.

SE WINDS EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER QUICKLY TO THE S/SW IN THE AFTERNOON
AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. ON TUESDAY...WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH
RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS WITH QUICK EASTWARD MOVING
STORMS. SEAS MON INTO TUE  NEAR 3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS INTO
MID WEEK WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WED VEERING TO NE TO E INTO LATE WEEK.
SEAS EXPECTED 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  85  74  86 /  50  70  60  60
MCO  74  88  73  89 /  50  70  50  60
MLB  77  87  74  89 /  40  60  60  60
VRB  75  88  74  90 /  30  60  50  60
LEE  74  87  74  88 /  50  70  50  60
SFB  75  88  74  89 /  50  70  60  60
ORL  76  88  74  89 /  50  70  50  60
FPR  74  88  74  90 /  30  60  50  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

IMPACT WX...SPRATT
FORECASTS...WIMMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1152 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-290000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1152 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE ADJACENT EAST COAST
COUNTIES WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...IN FAVOR OF INCREASING
RAINFALL COVERAGE MAINLY WEST OF LAKE GEORGE...ORLANDO AND DISNEY
AND INTO WEST FLORIDA FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE BRIEF TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
WHILE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH IN MANY
LOCATIONS AS PREVIOUS DAYS...HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A FEW AREAS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR OR LESS...WHICH WILL AGGRAVATE
ANY STANDING WATER AND FLOODING ISSUES AND LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

MOTORISTS ARE REMINDED TO NEVER DRIVE OVER WATER COVERED ROADS AS
THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW YOUR VEHICLE TO CROSS SAFELY AND
MAY OBSCURE WASHOUTS...CULVERTS OR OTHER LOW SPOTS.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCAL
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS OVER INLAND LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.
BOATERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TODAY. SEEK SAFE HARBOR IF SKIES LOOK THREATENING.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS AT ACTION STAGE AND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
CAUSING MINOR INUNDATION OF PROPERTY AND RIVER ACCESSES IN THE
AREA.

ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSED WITHIN DRAINAGE BASINS WILL
ADD TO THE WATER LEVELS IN CREEKS...RIVERS AND LAKES THAT HAVE
RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
WEATHER AND OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MODERATE
THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. CHECK
WITH YOUR LOCAL BEACH PATROL FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT OCEAN
HAZARDS. SWIM ONLY WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD...AND NEVER SWIM
ALONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...WITH AGGRAVATION OF STANDING WATER PROBLEMS AND INUNDATION
OF ROADS AND OTHER POORLY DRAINED URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
AS LOCAL FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN ACROSS THE REGION...SPOTTERS ARE
REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF ANY WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. PLEASE CONTINUE TO REPORT ANY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE...AND REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF PROPERTY OR ROADS.

SPRATT