Lake Wind Advisory 16, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
400 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...A FEW COULD BE STRONG...

...BRIEF DRYING EARLY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY...915MHZ PROFILERS SHOW BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW 20-25KTS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH IS HELPING TO KEEP WINDS UP ALONG THE
SPACE AND TREASURE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MUGGY TEMPS
IN THE LOW 70S. THE DRY POCKET THAT MOVED INTO THE PENINSULA LAST
NIGHT IS SLOWLY ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH
RUC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A WIDE SWATCH OF 30-40% RH VALUES IN THE
850-500MB LAYER THAT WILL NEED TO BE MODIFIED AHEAD OF ARRIVAL OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. NONETHELESS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE A FEW SHOWER OVER THE GULF STREAM WITH
OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES ALONG THE MARTIN/SAINT LUCIE COAST.

NOT TO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY FROM PREVIOUS AS THE
SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD MARCH INTO PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
MESOSCALE MODELS DON'T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE EARLY ON...LIKELY DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIRMASS THAT NEEDS TO BE MODIFIED AHEAD OF THE BAND.
HOWEVER SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER WON'T BE MUCH OF A DETERRENT IN
THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LINE.

TIMING HAS THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL BAND MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS JUST BEFORE NOON AND MOVING THROUGH THE TREASURE COAST
AFTER SUNSET. STEERING LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 30-35 KNOTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH IN ADDITION TO ANY LINGERING MID LEVEL DRYNESS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS/DOWNBURSTS WITH GUSTY WINDS.

GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY WINDS FROM THE SW BECOMING WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30MPH AS WINDS INCREASE. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE REGION.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH
THICKER CLOUDS AND EARLY ONSET OF SHOWERS/LIGHTNING STORMS HOLDING
DOWN TEMPS A BIT. HIGH TEMPS TO APPROACH 88-92 DEGS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

TONIGHT...MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION AFTER
SUNSET THOUGH MODELS SHOW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE A FEW HOURS BEHIND IT. BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING A BRIEF COOLDOWN WITH
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S BY DAYBREAK IN MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES WILL SEE A FEW LOW 50S AND
MARTIN WILL HOLD IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

WED-THU...WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINING SW...FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL COME TO A SCREECHING HALT OVER SOUTH FL BY WED EVENING...THEN
BECOMING QSTNRY INTO THU...BEFORE SLOWLY TRYING TO LIFT BACK TWD
INTO THE CTRL PENINSULA BY THU NIGHT. THUS...POST FRONTAL DRYING
AND DECREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN HALF CWA WILL BE BRIEF AS
ONSHORE SFC FLOW TOPPED BY CONTINUED MID SW FLOW...AND A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING WRN FL FROM THE GOMEX...WILL LEAD TO
INCRSG CLOUDS/RAIN CHCS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING IN QSTNRY SHOWER BANDS SETTING UP
NEAR/NORTH OF THE FRONT (ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST) AS STALLED
FRONTS IN THE FALL-SPRING ARE LOCALLY NOTORIOUS FOR PRODUCING LOCAL
SCALE HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER...THESE ARE IMPOSSIBLE
TO FORECAST WITH ANY SPATIAL ACCURACY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD MAX TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 70S TO 80F WED...WITH MAXES ONLY
ABOUT A CAT WARMER ON WED.

FRI-TUE...THERE REMAINS DIFFERING IDEAS IN THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF
THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE AND ASCD RESPONSE AT THE
SFC. THE FCST BLENDED THE 00Z ECM/GFS THROUGH FRI NIGHT...AS THE
FORMER MODEL TRENDED A BIT WEAKER EARLY ON. THE ECM STILL SEEMS
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW JUST OFF THE FL EAST COAST FOR
THIS WEEKEND...THIS THE GFS WAS USED FROM SAT AFTERNOON ONWARD.
EXPECT PRETTY HIGH RAIN CHCS FRI-FRI NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND SFC WAVE/LOW CROSSES THE STATE CROSSES THE STATE. AFOREMENTIONED
TIMING DIFFS FOR EARLY SAT AS GFS LOOKS DRY...WHILE THE ECM SHOWS
LINGERING MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND  A STRONG SFC LOW LURKING JUST
OFFSHORE. WENT A LITTLE HIGHER POPS THAN I WOULD LIKE...BUT SUSPECT
THAT THE LOW WILL BE WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECM (WHICH
HAS BEEN OVERAMPED WITH NEARBY SFC LOWS SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER/
SPRING) SHOWS. TURNING MUCH DRIER SAT NIGHT ONWARD...BUT NOT A WHOLE
LOST OF POST-FRONTAL COOLING AS THE PROGRESSIVE SFC HIGH CENTER STAYS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH 15Z WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS FL060-070
AND FL250. BAND OF PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO
REACH KLEE-KDAB 15-18Z...KMCO AND OTHER METRO AREA AIRPORTS
17-18Z...KMLB 18-20Z...AND THE TREASURE COAST AFTER 20Z.

SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST IN AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF BAND REACHING 12-18KTS AND GUSTY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KNOTS. FAST MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND THE PRESENCE OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 35KTS.

NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BEHIND FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 00Z WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20KTS DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...POOR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER LOCAL ATLANTIC WITH
BUOY 41009 REPORTING SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20KTS SIMILAR TO A SHIP OB
THAT REPORTED OFFSHORE SAINT LUCIE INLET AT 2AM. EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE 15-20KTS AND GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY WITH A GRADUAL VEERING
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. BRIEF LULL THIS
EVENING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN WILL SEE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND
SURGE TO 20-25KTS BEHIND FRONT OVERNIGHT. ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET WHERE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE...WITH WINDS
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AROUND 15-20KTS.

SEAS 2-4FT NEARSHORE/4-5FT OFFSHORE AT AROUND 8SEC TODAY...BUILDING
TO 4-6FT NEARSHORE/6-7FT OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT WITH WIND SURGE. FAST
MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW PRODUCING GUSTS OVER 35KTS.

WED-SAT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEAR/NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THU AS WELL AS THE TIGHT PGRAD
CONTINUES BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING TO
THE NORTH PGRAD SHOULD START TO LOOSEN BY LATE THU AS BDRY LIFTS
NORTH TWD OR INTO THE AREA WITH SFC WAVE PASSAGE ON FRI. ANOTHER NRLY
WIND SURGE LIKELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW...BEGINNING EITHER ON
FRI NIGHT (GFS) OR SATURDAY (ECM).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  54  72  65 /  80  20  20  20
MCO  88  56  78  64 /  80  20  10  20
MLB  88  60  76  71 /  60  30  20  30
VRB  89  63  77  69 /  50  30  30  30
LEE  83  51  76  61 /  80  10  10  20
SFB  88  53  76  63 /  80  20  10  20
ORL  86  57  77  65 /  80  20  10  20
FPR  90  63  77  69 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-
     MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
     OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
641 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-151000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
641 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY NECESSITATE THE NEED FOR A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY. MARINERS SHOULD BE ADVISED OF HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON AREA LAKES AS WELL AS THE INTRACOASTAL AND
ATLANTIC WATERS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

ULRICH