High Surf Advisory 1, NWS Melbourne, FL

643 
WHUS42 KMLB 100505
CFWMLB

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1205 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014

FLZ047-054-059-064-141-147-100615-
/O.EXP.KMLB.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-141210T0500Z/
SOUTHERN BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
1205 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL STILL PRODUCE BREAKING WAVES OF 4
TO 6 FEET AND POUNDING SURF OVERNIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION MAY STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

SEDLOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
352 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...

TODAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA NOW
WHICH IS TAKING SOME OF THE SUPPORT FOR PRECIP AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THERE REMAINS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SOME LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THRU THIS
MORNING. BUT BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS (AND LEADING EDGE OF DRIER
AIR) WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA RATHER QUICKLY FROM NW-SE RESULTING
IN CLEARING SKIES. DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE...COOL ADVECTION
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY MID
TO UPPER 60S.

SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LOWER PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE WHICH HAS TIGHTENED THE NNW PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA AND ADJACENT ATLC. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS
TODAY ESP ONCE SKIES CLEAR BUT WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING AT THE COAST.

THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY IS A THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AND BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 9 AND 930
AM. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GRADUALLY ACQUIRING AN OFFSHORE (N/NW)
COMPONENT...BASED ON THE FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS (12-13 FT AT BUOY
009 AND 9 FT AT BUOY 114) AND THE LONG PERIOD SWELL IMPACTING
THE SURF ZONE...WILL RAISE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR BREAKING WAVES
OF 6 TO 8 FEET. AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE A GREAT (OR EVEN GOOD)
BEACH DAY...WILL HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALSO.

TONIGHT...COLDER WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE WITH
NW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE
UPPER 30S BY WED MORNING MOST AREAS. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS A LITTLE ABOVE OUR
CRITERIA.

WED-WED NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WITH GENERAL ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF COAST STATES. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10 MPH. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
CONDITIONS DRY. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
ONLY RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 60S MOST PLACES. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN
STORE AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
WINDS WILL FALL TO LIGHT SO THERE WILL BE NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST TOWARDS THU MORNING IN THE COOLER
RURAL INTERIOR AREAS.

THU-THU NIGHT...ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE NEW DAY. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. CONTINUES TO SPIN THERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THRU THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER WEAK WITH W/NW WIND SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW
10 MPH MOST AREAS. CONDITIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT POSSIBLY MIDDLE 60S
TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. THE COOL AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 40S...EXCEPT MIDDLE
40S ALONG THE COAST AND ORLANDO METRO.

FRI-MON...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. FINALLY GETS NUDGED
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS FROM THE GULF TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SUN.
THE UPPER RIDGE PASSES EAST ON MON WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RETURNING
TO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES A SLOW DRIFT EASTWARD
WHILE WEAKENING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FINALLY EMERGING OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST MON AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY...THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN
STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF FEATURES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM INTO TUE.
HIGHS/LOWS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THRU SAT...NEAR NORMAL BY
SUN AGAIN...AND PERHAPS JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY MON. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY VERY LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF MCO
THROUGH 12Z. BACK EDGE OF STRATUS IS ADVANCING SE AND ALL TERMINALS
SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 16Z-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...VERY TIGHT N/NW PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY THIS
MORNING PRODUCING 25KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE AT NOAA BUOY
009. THIS HAS INCREASED SEAS TO 13FT WITH 9 FT AT SCRIPPS BUOY
OFFSHORE FPR. SO SOLID ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH SEAS UP
TO 15 FT PROBABLE IN THE GULF STREAM. THE PRES GRAD WILL RELAX
ONLY SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SETTLE BACK TO 20
KNOTS WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF NW WINDS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL HELP LIMIT THE WIND CHOP VERY NEAR THE
COAST...JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY
HAZARDOUS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE LARGE LONG PERIOD NE
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS NEAR INLETS
ESP DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE LATEST NORTHWEST WIND SURGE WILL PASS SOUTHWARD
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXING.
INITIAL NW 20-25 KT WINDS WILL FALL TO 10-12 KTS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 6-9 FT NEAR SHORE
AND 9-12 FT OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM. A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELL
WILL REMAIN 12-13 SECONDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OFFSHORE/GULF
STREAM WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED FOR SCA FOR SEAS AT SOME POINT...AS
BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. WNW WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED...WITH STILL A LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 12 SECONDS.

FRI-SAT...NW WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NNE/NE ON SAT WITH WINDS SPEEDS
10-15 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLC/GULF STREAM. SEAS WILL REMAIN ON A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WED-THU...MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE LATEST REINFORCING
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR FOR WED AND AGAIN INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S ON THU. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
AFTERNOON DISPERSION INDICES ONLY FAIR AT BEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  43  61  40 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  65  43  62  41 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  67  46  62  41 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  68  46  63  40 /  20   0   0   0
LEE  63  41  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  64  43  62  41 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  64  43  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  69  46  63  42 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
627 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-091030-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
627 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH INTO TONIGHT INCREASING UP
TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A LARGE
LONG PERIOD SWELL TO PRODUCE SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET OFFSHORE AND OVER
THE GULF STREAM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC TONIGHT FOR THESE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND FLOW WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...THE LONG PERIOD
NORTHEAST SWELL WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES ALONG WITH ROUGH SURF.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

WEITLICH