Gale Watch 1, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
405 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FREEZE WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FL MONDAY NIGHT...
...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE E CENTRAL FL
ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...

CURRENTLY...
HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC/DEEP SOUTH GENERATING A DEEP
S/SERLY FLOW ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. EVENING SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A RESPECTABLE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H85-H70 LYR WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF MID LVL DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH FL.
PWAT VALUES HAVE INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST 24HRS: KJAX
APPROACHING 1.0" AND KTBW UP TO 1.3"...KMFL UP TO 1.6" WITH MOST OF
ITS MID LVL DRY AIR FULLY ERODED. POCKETS OF -RA/RA HAVE BEEN
STREAMING ACRS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS MORNING...BUT ARE HAVING
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT.

TODAY-TONIGHT...
THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM SRLY BREEZE THAT WILL PUSH THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY BACK ACRS CENTRAL FL BY MIDDAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL GENERATE ABV AVG TEMPS WITH MAX READINGS IN THE
U70S/L80S...MINS IN THE L/M60S INTERIOR AND M/U60S ALONG THE COAST.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SW AS A STRONG FRONTAL TROF PUSHES
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WRN FLANK OF THE
ATLC RIDGE. THESE WINDS WILL DRAW INCREASING LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE TO
THE S INTO CENTRAL FL...ERODING THE REMNANT DRY AIR BY MIDDAY WHILE
GENERATE A RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. MEANWHILE...A WEAK
H85-H50 VORT BAND OVER THE E/SE GOMEX WILL PUSH ACRS THE PENINSULA
AND PROVIDE SOME WEAK MID LVL SUPPORT. MID LVL TEMP PROFILE WILL BE
QUITE WEAK...HOWEVER...WITH H85-H50 LAPSE RATES LARGELY AOB 6.0C/KM.
WILL NEED TO KEEP PRECIP IN THE FCST...BUT BLO 40PCT. WILL WORD FOR
STRATIFORM RAIN RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE SHRAS GIVEN THAT THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA WILL BE THE SO-CALLED WARM SECTOR OF WHAT REMAINS OF THE
WARM FRONT.

MONDAY...POLAR VORTEX ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND DEEP ERN CONUS
TROUGH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE DOWN THE PENINSULA DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. WSW LOW LVL FLOW IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME NW AND
WINDY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE NRN
PENINSULA LATE IN THE DAY. FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH
THIS FRONT SO WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PCT ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN SECTIONS
AND 30 PCT ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE PRE-EXISTING MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
BE HIGHER. THINK HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN GFS MOS AND
HAVE BLENDED WITH NAM MOS TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPR 60S
NORTH TO UPPER 70S FOR ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.

MONDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
MON NIGHT WITH BREEZY NW WINDS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 20S FAR NRN AREAS MAINLY NW OF I-4 AND INTO THE 30S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. COORD WITH TAMPA AND JAX AND WILL
ISSUE A HARD FREEZE WATCH FOR INLAND VOLUSIA AND LAKE COUNTIES AND
FREEZE WATCH FOR NRN BREVARD/SEMINOLE/ORANGE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES.
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS FAR NORTH AND INTO THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF E
CENTRAL FL DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME PASSING UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LWR MS VALLEY WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TWD THE SE STATES THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW
EARLY WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ONLY A SLOW RECOVERY FROM MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH
AND 55-60 SRN ZONES.

TUE NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER ACROSS ALABAMA WILL BUILD EASTWARD TWD
THE MID ATLC THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING N/NE.
EXPECT A CSTL TROUGH TO SET UP WITH COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE
INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN IN THE 30S AND 40S FROM MLB SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST. MAY SEE FREEZING CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR INLAND VOLUSIA AND LAKE
COUNTIES.

WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH WILL BUILD TWD THE OUTER BANKS OF NC WITH NE
SFC WINDS BECOMING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLC AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO LWR 70S SRN AREAS.

THU-FRI...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLC LOW LVL
EASTERLY-ESE FLOW WILL RETURN THE OLD FRONTAL MOISTURE BAND BACK
OVER CENTRAL FL. SOME LOW LVL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

SAT-SUN...RISING MID LVL HEIGHTS AND SE TO SOUTHERLY LOW LVL WINDS
WINDS WILL KEEP E CENTRAL FL WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 20-30 PCT
SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH MILD LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 05/15Z...LGT/VRBL SFC WNDS BCMG S/SW BLO 10KTS AND CONTG THRU
06/06Z...PDS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALL SITES IN -RA...LCL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS N OF KISM-KDAB IN -RA/FG. AFT 05/15Z...CIGS LFTG AOA
FL120...S OF KVRB-KOBE CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA...SLGT CHC N OF
KVRB-KOBE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SFC/LOW LVL HIGH PRES RIDGE DRAPED OVER THE SE CONUS
WILL GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE SRLY BREEZE THRU THE DAY. WINDS
WILL VEERING TO SW AFT SUNSET BCMG MODERATE TO FRESH BY DAYBREAK AS
A VERY STRONG FRONTAL TROF PRESSES ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTERACTS
WITH THE WRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE.

DATA BUOYS HAVE BEEN MEASURING SEAS NEAR 7FT OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HRS...MOST OF WHICH IS DUE TO A
5-6FT/10SEC NERLY SWELL. NEARSHORE BUOYS BACK THIS UP WITH
PERSISTENT READINGS OF 4-6FT SEAS DUE TO A 2-3FT/12SEC NERLY SWELL.
OFFSHORE SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS ARE JUST BLO CAUTIONARY CRITERIA BUT
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THRU THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AS
SUCH...WHILE CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE BORDERLINE...WILL GO WITH AN SCA
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE.

WSW WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE NW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS BY MID DAY INTO
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT WITH A
GALE WATCH FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE WED AFTN INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE AND GULF STREAM WATERS MON NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY ON TUE WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. WINDS WILL VEER TO ONSHORE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH EAST
WINDS 15-20 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND NEAR 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE KEEPING SEAS
ELEVATED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  64  67  30 /  20  20  20  10
MCO  79  63  69  32 /  20  20  20  10
MLB  78  68  73  35 /  20  30  20  10
VRB  79  68  75  37 /  30  30  30  10
LEE  79  60  63  26 /  20  20  20  10
SFB  79  64  69  30 /  20  20  20  10
ORL  79  63  68  32 /  20  20  20  10
FPR  79  67  76  39 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE.

     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING      FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....VOLKMER

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