Alert archive / Wisconsin / Special Weather Statements in 2014

Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

August 3, 2014Fond du Lac County, Wisconsin

NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this special weather statement at Aug 3, 2014, 2:42 PM CDT for Fond du Lac County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 63 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 3, 2014, 2:42 PM CDT (19:42 UTC)
Expired
Aug 3, 2014, 3:45 PM CDT
In force
63 min
Issued by
NWS Milwaukee, WI

County Fond du Lac County, WI

The radar

The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2014-08-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 190 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2014-08-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 13 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
190 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-85 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1200 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
13 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
32 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 3, 11:13 AM CDT, 3 hours 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 3, 11:13 AM CDT, 3 hours 29 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014

.UPDATE...SPS MESO PLOTS SHOW DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SRN WITH ML
CAPE VALUES ALREADY TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE IS
TRACKING FROM SE IA INTO WC IL. HOWEVER AN EXTENSION OF THIS VORT
EXTENDS INTO SC WI. MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A FORMIDABLE TRIGGER IS TOUGH TO
LATCH ONTO. IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE REALLY IS NOTHING. BUT WE ARE
EXPECTING THE LAKE BREEZE TO POSSIBLY SERVE AS A FOCUS. THERE
JUST ISN/T MUCH GOING ON UPSTAIRS OUTSIDE OF THIS WEAK VORT AXIS.
THE RAP SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO BE UNDERDOING THE CAPE WITH THE NAM
SOUNDINGS MATCHING UP MORE WITH THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS. THE 12Z NAM
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE BASICALLY DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE HAS VERY LOW POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
POINT WILL TREND POPS A SMIDGE LOWER AND GO WITH MORE ISOLD/SCT
DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NON-EXISTENT SO
SVR POTENTIAL VERY LOW. ALSO 500 MILLIBAR TEMPS ARE -12C...SO
NOT AS COLD AS YESTERDAY AND FRIDAY.

PC

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MAIN FOCUS IS ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK VORT AXIS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. STARTING TO
SEE SOME CU POPPING. AIRMASS IS DESTABILIZING SO GOING WITH
ISOLD/SCT DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME COOL AIR ALOFT AS WELL. WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD VFR WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO SRN WI MONDAY WITH
MORE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING CLOSER FROM NRN WI AFFECTING
THE AREA SO MAY SEE MORE COVERAGE ON THE STORMS FOR MON AFTN/EVE.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER IA WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH
BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENSION WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THROUGH
THE DAY. MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO
CAPPING. GIVEN THE TSTORM ACTIVITY THAT HAS OCCURRED FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...WOULD EXPECT SCT TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE BEST FOCUS OVER THE NRN CWA AND ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE FRONT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
LATE TNT ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH...SO ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. SMALL HAIL
WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT WARMER NEAR THE LAKE AS THE LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPS LATER.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. STORM MOTION WILL BE A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS...UP AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS...SO THE
STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO COVER A LITTLE MORE GROUND. BETWEEN THIS
AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...DECIDED TO GO LIKELY POPS
MOST PLACES.

KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH.
WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY...GOING DRY IN THE
NORTHEAST AS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

SHOULD SEE TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS SEEM TO BE FINALLY SETTLING ON A SOLUTION FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...BRINGING UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. KEPT A LITTLE POPS HERE AND
THERE...THOUGH THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE DROPPED IN THE FUTURE
IF MODELS ARE PERSISTENT WITH FORECASTING THIS PATTERN.
OTHERWISE...THIS SETUP SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SCT-BKN050 WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO MUCH OF SUN NT AS A
COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION. SCT TSTORMS ARE
MAINLY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TO SCT TSTORMS TNT. PATCHY
FOG WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND WILL AFFECT KMSN.
OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SUN NT AND MAY AFFECT
KMSN...KUES...KENW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 3, 4:08 AM CDT, 10 hours 34 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
408 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-040915-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
408 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A WEAK COOL FRONT PASS THROUGH THE AREA. SOME STORMS WILL
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

LMZ643>646-040915-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
408 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK COOL FRONT PASS THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX
MG

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 3, 1:55 PM CDT, 47 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
155 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014

WIZ051-052-058-059-032000-
WASHINGTON-DODGE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-
155 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHERN
DODGE...SOUTHEAST FOND DU LAC...AND SOUTHWEST SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES...

AT 153 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WAUPUN...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEST BEND...WAUPUN...MAYVILLE...KEWASKUM...HORICON...LOMIRA...
CAMPBELLSPORT...THERESA...BURNETT...ASHFORD...BYRON...BROWNSVILLE...
WAYNE...KEKOSKEE...NEW FANE...DUNDEE...KNOWLES...MINNESOTA
JUNCTION...WAUCOUSTA AND BEECHWOOD.

LAT...LON 4343 8808 4345 8877 4363 8878 4370 8809
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 266DEG 20KT 4355 8867

COLLAR
Special weather statement, Aug 3, 2:42 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
242 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014

WIZ051-052-032045-
FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-
242 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO FOND DU LAC...

AT 240 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR FOND DU LAC...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FOND DU LAC...PLYMOUTH...NORTH FOND DU LAC...OAKFIELD...ELKHART
LAKE...TAYCHEEDAH...LAMARTINE...GREENBUSH...EDEN...MOUNT CALVARY...
CASCADE...WALDO...ST. CLOUD...GLENBEULAH...PEEBLES AND CALVARY.

LAT...LON 4367 8859 4385 8861 4388 8792 4365 8791
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 271DEG 22KT 4377 8850

COLLAR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 3, 1:55 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXFond du Lac65 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Wisconsin, 2014Every special weather statement in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.