Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1021 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.UPDATE...

STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE ROLLS THROUGH. BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE DEEPER MOISTURE. CURRENT POPS AND TEMPS SEEM
REASONABLE...SO NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

SEEING A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS RIGHT NOW. EXPECT THESE TO
TRANSITION TO ALL VFR BY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME MIXING RAISES THE
CLOUD BASES. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE ROLLS THROUGH. BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE DEEPER MOISTURE. COULD SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS
IN THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FIRST WAVE EXITS
AND THEN ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/

..UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW STRETCHED ACROSS MOST OF ONTARIO CANADA
WILL EXTEND SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.  THE DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT COUPLED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND IT WILL BRING DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LAPSE RATES/CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON LOOK PRETTY DECENT.  THE BULK OF THE MODELS ALL DEPICT A
DECENT SHORT WAVE ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO WILL HANG ONTO SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN CWA
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.

STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BRING ENOUGH DEEPER MIXING TO MIX
OUT THE DEWPOINTS...THEY SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A
WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING INTO THE TEENS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TO ABOUT 11-12C TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ON WED IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH A LAKE BREEZE/WEAK COLD
FRONT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHERN WI. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH
925MB TEMPS OF 14 TO 16C.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WED NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S AND SOME
PATCHY INLAND FOG. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE THERE TO GET FOG.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THU AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP TO AROUND
80 INLAND. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE THU NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY WITH
STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE LOW
LEVEL JET PROVIDES A LITTLE FOCUS INTO SOUTHERN WI AND MODELS ARE
SHOWING FAIRLY WEAK CAPE.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WE WILL GET BACK INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN 850MB THERMAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SET UP SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN
WI AREA. THIS WILL MEAN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN
THROUGH WI ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO
THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. THE 00Z GFS BACKED OFF THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LOW BUT THE 00Z ECMWF KEPT THE STRONG LOOK TO IT. CHANCES ARE
THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND SUNSHINE THAT
SETTLES INTO SOUTHERN WI...BUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST DIURNAL CLOUDS EACH DAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 14/15Z THIS
MORNING AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION COMPETES WITH SOME LINGERING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. ONCE THIS GETS MIXED OUT LOOK VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AS A RESULT OF A
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON.  LOOK FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1205 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-090845-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
1205 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL OVER EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE ARE
VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
SEVERAL TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ643>646-090845-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
1205 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL MAINLY NORTH OF
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
SEVERAL TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

MG

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
208 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

WIZ060-081945-
OZAUKEE-
208 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OZAUKEE COUNTY...

AT 207 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SAUKVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GRAFTON AND PORT WASHINGTON AROUND 215 PM CDT.
  MEQUON AROUND 225 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE WAUBEKA.

LAT...LON 4341 8785 4338 8786 4338 8787 4330 8789
      4325 8792 4337 8804 4350 8804 4352 8803
      4346 8781
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 305DEG 27KT 4342 8798

WOOD