Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
820 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

.UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING DEEPENING CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO OCCUR ACROSS NCNTRAL IA INTO SE MN AND WC WI. THIS
DEEPENING ASCENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THE EVENING RAOB OUT OF KDVN SHOWS A STRONG CAP JUST BELOW 700MB
WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. THAT CAP IS WEAKER TO
THE NORTH AND IS WHY WE/RE SEEING THE FIRST CONVECTION UP AROUND
WAUSAU. A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER NEB WILL EVENTUALLY
ROLL ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL ENHANCE THE
DEEP CONVECTION AND LIKELY WIPE OUT THE INVERSION. THE SCENARIO WE
EXPECT FOR TONIGHT IS FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN
OR FAR NE IA...THEN ROLL EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE BEING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
LIKE LAST NIGHT...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN SHOW
SHOULD BE FROM JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT.
TORRENTIAL RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AND COUPLED WITH SATURATED
CONDITIONS FROM LAST NIGHT/S RAINFALL...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT HAS
INCREASED.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT
SHOULD BEGIN MAINLY AFTER 10 PM AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIKE LAST NIGHT...A FEW STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER
12Z WED...WITH ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED AGAIN WED EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

WHILE THE MCS FROM LAST NIGHT HAS LEFT A STABLE/SUBSIDING INFLUENCE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD...THINGS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE
HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 4KM SPC WRF RUN FROM LAST NIGHT
ESSENTIALLY LEFT US DRY FOR TONIGHT BUT THE 12Z RUN HAS COME IN
LOOKING LOOK THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND HITS US WITH ANOTHER MCS.
ATMOSPHERE BEGINNING TO RELOAD TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.
IMPRESSIVE WIND/DEW POINT GRADIENT BETWEEN SRN WI AND SE IA. SPC
MESO PAGE DOING A GREAT JOB SHOWING HOW THE BETTER MLCAPE/MUCAPE IS
FURTHER SOUTH AND CURVING NW INTO CNTRL IA. EXPECT THIS GRADIENT TO
LIFT NORTH A BIT FURTHER WITH THE HELP OF THE BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS IA. MANY FACTORS COMING BACK INTO PLAY TO LIKELY GENERATE
ANOTHER STG/SVR MCS MOVING THROUGH. PROXIMITY OF SURFACE
FRONT...RENEWED SOUTHWEST 850 JET...AND SOME RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM UPR GRT LAKES 250 MB JET. WILL HOIST A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WRN CWA MATCHING UP WITH DVN AND ARX ON THIS.
INCREASE IN DCAPE/FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ADAQUETE 0-6KM
SHEAR SUGGEST SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS NEXT COMPLEX.

HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF BRINGS A LULL TO THINGS AS THE
MCS AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST. HOWEVER THE NAM AND GFS
LINGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL KEEP CHCY POPS
GOING ALL DAY BUT KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH LINED UP WITH THE
TRENDS OF THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME. LIKE THIS MORNING...AN MCS PASSAGE
OFTEN TIMES RESULTS IN AT LEAST A BREAK IN THE ACTION...BUT IF HEAVY
RAIN INDUCED FLASH FLOODING FROM THE OVERNIGHT SYSTEM PERSSISTS THE
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN DURATION AND POTENTIALLY COVERAGE A
AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

WILL CONTINUE MID-LEVEL POPS FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT AS STRONG
SFC BOUNDARY AS WELL AS ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO NRN IL AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE.
PWAT VALUES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY IN THE 1.5 TO
1.75 INCH RANGE WHICH REMAINS ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR MID-JUNE.  SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE FOCUSES AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET TO THE WEST OF WI INTO
IA/MN WED NGT...BUT PIVOTS EWD AND WEAKENS THU INTO THU NGT.  BOTH
NAM AND GFS SHOW YET ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORT WAVE
AFFECTING SRN WI WED NGT INTO THU AND LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
RESPONSE MODERATE IN THE LOW LAYERS ACROSS SRN WI WED NIGHT.
DEPENDING ON WHERE HEAVIER QPF OCCURS TONIGHT...MAY NEED ANOTHER
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WED NGT INTO THU.

NEED TO HAVE A TIGHTER GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS SRN WI FOR
HIGHS BOTH THU AND FRI DUE TO LOW LEVEL FLOW PREDOMINANTELY FROM THE
EAST.

PRECIP THREAT NOT AS HIGH ON FRIDAY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BRIEFLY
RETURNS WITH WEAK SFC OCCLUSION PASSAGE AND LOW LEVEL JET FURTHER
WEAKENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

WILL LEAN MORE ON ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD AS THIS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN MOST RELIABLE AND HAS SHOWED THE BEST OVERALL CONSISTENCY
IN HANDLING WEAKENING UPPER LOW ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK. GEM AND GFS ALSO COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF SOLUTION.

WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER UPPER MIDWEST/CANADIAN BORDER GETS NUDGED
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO UPSTREAM LONG WAVE RIDGING
EXPANDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO WRN CONUS.  FINAL
REMNANTS OF THIS WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND TROF FINALLY CLEAR SRN WI
AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO SETTLE OVER SRN WI LATER FRI/FRI NGT AS DRIER
AIR WRAPS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  UNFORTUNATELY...MOIST AIR REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY AS
BORDER SHORT WAVE MENTIONED EARLIER MOVES ACROSS WESTERN GTLAKES.
HENCE THREAT FOR CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MAIN STORY WILL BE REDVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT. LLJ REFOCUSES WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE STORMS WITH
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM UPPER JET STREAM. MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT FOR MCS TO ROLL THOUGH FROM MID OR LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS SUGGEST
STORMS LINGER ALL DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF GRADUALLY TRAILS
THINGS OFF. EXPECT LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ046-056-057-
     062-063-067>069.

LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1225 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-181930-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
1225 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...DUE TO A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING CLOSE BY TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE AREAL FLOODING...AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING. SOME RIVER
LEVELS WILL RISE TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT...AND MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LMZ643>646-181930-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
1225 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP...AS WARM AND HUMID AIR LINGERS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DUE TO A
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING CLOSE BY TO SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
INTO MONDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG
OVER THE COLDER WATERS OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

WOOD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
116 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     HAIL             2 NE BROOKFIELD         43.08N 88.09W
06/18/2014  M1.25 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MEASURED HAIL 1.15 INCHES. HAIL FELL FOR 5 MINUTES.

&&

BHAHN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
121 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     HAIL             6 NW MILWAUKEE          43.09N 88.00W
06/18/2014  E1.00 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAIL LASTED OFF

            AND ON FOR 15 MINUTES. 1 MILE SOUTH OF TIMMERMAN AIRPORT.

&&

BHAHN

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