Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
752 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SHORT RANGE/HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAD BEEN POINTING TO A
LATER SHOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT IS UNFOLDING THIS EVENING.
BUT...IT/S NOT UNUSUAL FOR THESE MODELS TO BE SLOW WITH THE
EVOLUTION. THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN MN/NRN IA IS ORGANIZING INTO A
QLCS COMPLEX THAT IS EXPECTED TO ROLL INTO OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PM THIS EVENING. IT/S CURRENTLY MOVING
ABOUT 45 TO 50 MPH AND HAS NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS
AND A FEW TORNADO WARNINGS CURRENTLY ALONG IT.

THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS MOISTENING UP RAPIDLY AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE CREEPING
NORTH JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. BULK SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE. SO...SEE
NO REASON THAT AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT LINE EASTWARD WILL
NOT BE EFFECTIVE. TYPICAL WITH THESE SYSTEMS...IT SHOULD EVOLVE
INTO PRIMARILY A WIND EVENT WITH AN ISOLD TOR POSSIBLE.
EVENTUALLY...AS WE HIT THE DIURNAL SLUMP...THE CONVECTION SHOULD
LOSE IT/S PUNCH AS IT GETS INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. WE/LL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE ABOUT THAT. A COLD POOL/CDFNT WILL LAY OUT IN THE
WAKE OF THIS LEADING CONVECTION THAT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO THE TUESDAY MORNING. WE/LL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY FLOODING.

IT WILL BE AN ACTIVE NIGHT...STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND TRENDS ON RADAR.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
LOOK FOR A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO HIT KMSN
AROUND 04Z AND KMKE A FEW HOURS LATER. THESE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY
GENERATE HIGH WINDS WITH HAIL A SMALLER THREAT. AN ISOLD TORNADO
ISN/T OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS COULD GUST TO 60 MPH. ONCE THESE
STORMS PASS THROUGH...WE COULD SEE MORE DEVELOP IN THE WAKE AS THE
COLD POOL AND EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING RIGHT INTO THAT
BOUNDARY. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH MUCH OF
THE DAY ON TUESDAY QUIET. MORE STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY
EVENING. OF COURSE...IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS...BRIEF MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE MKX FORECAST AREA IS STILL IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
FOR TONIGHT PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THE MODERATE RISK COMES RIGHT
UP TO OUR WESTERN BORDER. THE SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A
LARGE AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL ORGANIZE OVER CENTRAL MN
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PER
FORECAST CORFIDI VECTORS...THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
AXIS...AND DIFFLUENT THICKNESSES. MANY OF THE 12Z MESOSCALE AND
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE COME IN WITH DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
AND THE GENERAL TRACK OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THROUGH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES OVER
SOUTHERN WI AS THE 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET LEANS OVER INTO WI BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL
ARRIVE...MOST LIKELY AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
AND 3 AM IN THE EAST. ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 40 KNOTS OF BULK
SHEAR SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ARE
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN THE LARGE...ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT WILL LIKELY BE TRACKING THROUGH. MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY EMBEDDED ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECTED PWATS OF 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT ARE NEARLY 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN SOUTHERN WI. AREAS
THAT GET A LOT OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND AREAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

MOST MODELS AGREE THAT THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL HAVE
EXITED EASTERN WI BY 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE A CAP WILL
SET UP AROUND 700MB OVER SOUTHERN WI DURING THE DAY AND KEEP THE
WEATHER WARM AND HUMID BUT QUIET. DESPITE CAPE BUILDING TO AROUND
3500 J/KG AND HIGH BULK SHEAR...WE WILL LIKELY LACK A STRONG ENOUGH
TRIGGER TO GET THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP UNTIL A SHORTWAVE COMES
ALONG SOMETIME TUE EVENING. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS GIVEN THE VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT...THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OR STRENGTH OF ANY
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE HIGH COLUMN MOISTURE THAT WILL BE SURGING INTO SOUTHERN WI AND
THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.  COLUMN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.5 TO
1.8 INCH RANGE WHICH IS ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR MID-JUNE IN THIS AREA.

STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE VICINITY OF SRN
WI ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL WI DURING THIS PERIOD.  EXACT LOCATION OF
BOUNDARY EACH PERIOD DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AND WILL BE AFFECTED
STRONGLY BY NIGHT TIME CONVECTION AND ALSO PRESSURE RISE AREAS TO
THE NORTH.  ALSO THINK COLD LAKE MI WATERS MIGHT COME MORE INTO PLAY
IN SUPPRESSING FRONT FARTHER SOUTH.  HENCE WENT WITH COOLER TEMPS BY
THE LAKE EACH DAY.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON CARRYING MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND ENHANCED FORCING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT.  HENCE A
SECOND NIGHT WITH A MCS LIKELY TO AFFECT PARTS OF SRN WI.  BULK
SHEAR WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS SO INITIALLY SEVERE
CONVECTION CLUSTER LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  LOW
LEVEL JET NOT AS STRONG INTO WI AS TONIGHT WITH FOCUS TUE NGT
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.  ENHANCED FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WED NGT INTO THU SO WL CONTINUE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY
WORDING FOR CONVECTION.

ISSUED HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THU NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WI AREA.  MAY BE DEALING WITH RIVER AND AREAL FLOODING BY
THAT TIME.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF UPSTREAM CUT-OFF UPPER LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  ECMWF STILL WEAKENS LOW INTO POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE SCT CONVECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY.  BOTH GEM AND GFS SLOWER IN FILLING UPPER LOW AND
DELAYS PASSAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN GTLAKES UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GRADUALLY CONVERGING ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD DRIER
WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINFALL
DIMINISHING AFTER FRONTAL OCCLUSION PASSAGE LATER FRIDAY.  SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW AND STATIONARY FRONT SHIFTING
NORTH AND EAST MAY FOCUS HEAVY RAIN THREAT ELSEWHERE BY THE WEEKEND
BUT WILL STILL NEED TO DEAL WITH SCT CONVECTION AS UPPER SHORT WAVES
MOVE THROUGH WI.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A LARGE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON AND
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TO THE DELLS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MILWAUKEE AROUND
3 AM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT EASTERN WI BY 7 AM. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS.  WATCH
FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALL NIGHT. SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT THEY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEY MAY PRODUCE HIGH WINDS AND HAIL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
945 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-172015-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
945 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 10 PM CDT AND 6 AM CDT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DUE TO A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING
CLOSE BY TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLOODING...AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING. SOME
RIVER LEVELS MAY RISE TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE MID 90S IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT...AND MAY BE
NEEDED AT TIMES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LMZ643>646-172015-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
945 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 2 AM CDT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...WITH HIGH WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WARM...HUMID AIR
MOVES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WINDS AND WAVES MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DUE TO A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING
CLOSE BY. OTHERWISE...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

WITH A HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
OVER THE COLDER WATERS OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN.

WOOD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1104 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

WIZ051-058-059-170500-
WASHINGTON-DODGE-FOND DU LAC-
1104 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WASHINGTON...DODGE...
FOND DU LAC...

AT 1103 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM
NORTHEAST DODGE COUNTY TO CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY...MOVING NORTH
AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FOND DU LAC...WEST BEND...WAUPUN...JACKSON...MAYVILLE...SLINGER...
NORTH FOND DU LAC...KEWASKUM...LOMIRA...CAMPBELLSPORT...THERESA...
OAKFIELD...ROSENDALE...TAYCHEEDAH...ADDISON...ASHFORD...LAMARTINE...
BYRON...EDEN AND MOUNT CALVARY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4394 8816 4328 8817 4345 8847 4363 8873
      4390 8872 4389 8841 4394 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 0403Z 196DEG 28KT 4367 8859

DAVIS