Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
231 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING GIVEN EXTRA PUSH IN ERN WI DUE TO CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS AND THE COLDER LAKE WATERS. BOUNDARY LINED UP MORE OR LESS
FROM THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE CWA EXTENDING NW TOWARDS THE DELLS. VERY
LITTLE WIND UPSTAIRS WITH UPPER FLOW NOT DOING MUCH. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NOT IMPRESSIVE AND NEITHER IS 0-6KM SHEAR. PLENTY OF WATER
IN THE COLUMN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.6 PER SPC
MESO PAGE. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE LIGHT AND CURVED SO MAIN CONCERN IS POCKETS
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 4KM SPC WRF SUGGESTING A
FAIRLY RAPID DROPOFF IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WHILE THE HRRR IS LENDING
CREDENCE TO THE WEAK SUPPORT FROM RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
IN SRN MN. THIS SOLUTION KEEPS STORMS GOING MUCH LATER IN THE EVENING
ACROSS THE CWA. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES LOSS OF HEATING AND A GRADUAL
SOUTHWESTWARD SINKING OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTS IN A LOWERING OF POPS AND
TRENDING THE POPS SW WITH TIME. HOWEVER GIVEN HELP OF SOME WEAK PIVA INTO
WRN WI ASSOC WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...DECIDED TO LINGER POPS LONGER THAN
MY ORIGINAL THOUGHTS. ISODROSOTHERM ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DRIER AIR STARTING
TO WORK IN FROM THE NE.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES LINGER PRECIP IN THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
MORNING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LINGERING FORCING WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY.
WILL CARRY SOME POPS THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT THEN GO DRY IN THE
AFTERNOON CWA WIDE WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING
HIGH TAKING HOLD.

.WEDENSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A VERY QUIET...VERY PLEASANT STRETCH IS EXPECTED FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES KEEPING A PERSISTENT LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
LAKE MICHIGAN COOLING MACHINE LIMITED TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY HIT THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWS AT
NIGHT FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...BUT THOSE LOWS
WILL MODIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER NEAR THE LAKE OF COURSE.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX SCENARIO TAKES SHAPE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE STILL TRYING TO WORK OUT THEIR DIFFERENCES.
IN GENERAL...IT APPEARS LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT/TROF TO DROP SOUTH
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL IN THE AREA
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOW THIS ALL EVOLVES
AND THE TIMING IS BEING HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE GFS/ECMWF.
BUT...THE SIMILAR MESSAGE IS THAT IT WILL BE UNSETTLED WITHIN A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND SMALL HAIL THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. 4KM WRF AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS. WILL
LINGER SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME HELP FROM WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ACRS MN/IA. SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT A DRYER DAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
310 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-280845-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
310 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND SLOW MOVING STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE ARE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ643>646-280845-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
310 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.  THE HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE COLD WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES...INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NORTHEAST WINDS AND WAVES MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

THERE ARE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

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