Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1119 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

.UPDATE...LOTS GOING ON FROM DENSE FOG IN PARTS OF EC WI AND OVER
THE LAKE...TO LINE OF STORMS RACING EAST THROUGH SRN WI. SPC MESO
PAGE SHOWS DECENT AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE STORMS IN NRN IL TO
FEED OFF. LOTS OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM SO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION LATER
WILL HINGE ON GETTING THINGS CLEARED OFF. BUT BETTER DYNAMICS AND
COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW MORE CONVECTION
ARRIVING TONIGHT WITH SLIGHT RISK STILL IN PLACE.

PC

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE ONGOING LINE
OF STORMS SWEEPING THROUGH SRN WI. DENSE FOG CONCERNS ARE NORTH
OF TAF SITES. WILL CLEAR CURRENT STORMS OUT OF THE FAR EAST BY 20Z
OR SO THEN WAIT FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT AND BETTER DYNAMICS GET A BIT CLOSER.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
STRONG WESTERN TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.  THE 105 KNOT JET MAX WAS LIFTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL REACH
WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING STRENGTHENING TO 115 KNOTS. WEAK TO
MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

A 700 MB WIND MAX OF 40 KNOTS PUSHES INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
SUNRISE.  A SECOND STRONGER 700 MB WIND MAX OF 55 KNOTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH REACHES WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND
PUSHES EAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT 850 MB A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA PUSHES INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN JUST AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH
LATER THIS MORNING.  A 45 KNOT 850 MB JET MAX ALSO MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.

700 MB MODERATE UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND 850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS THE
WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH. THEREFORE EXPECT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO ROLL THROUGH THIS MORNING. SOME MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.

850/700 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS
AROUND 11 TO 12 CELSIUS THIS EVENING UNTIL THE CONVECTION OCCURS.

BY AFTERNOON SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR.  UNTIL THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP THE
LAKESHORE AREAS COOL WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE AS THE AIRMASS DEW
POINTS RISE INTO IN THE MID 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE.
INLAND AREAS SHOULD REACH 80...BUT AREAS ALONG THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD SHEBOYGAN SHOULD STAY COOLER WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW MUCH
OF THE DAY.

WITH MODELS PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION TODAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR...THE AMOUNT OF MODEL CAPE IS LIKELY LESS THAN WHAT WILL
OCCUR. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LIFTING
MECHANISM DIFFICULT FOR TIMING DUE TO LIKELY MORNING CONVECTION AND
BOUNDARIES.

FOCUS FOR SEVERE WILL LIKELY BE IN AREAS WEST OF MADISON EARLY THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HELICITY VALUES DO RISE
TO NEAR 200 WITH SOME LOW LEVEL VEERING.  THEREFORE THERE WILL BE A
TORNADO THREAT.  COLD FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TONIGHT WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.  CAPE VALUES WILL
DECREASE AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING.

LOCAL SEVERE PROBABILITY CWASP VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 80 PCT INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH 70 PCT EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLY LINGERING EAST IN THE
MORNING. IT SHOULD BE DRY THEN THE REST OF THE DAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.

DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN THEN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. EVEN COOLER TEMPS ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY...STRUGGLING INTO THE UPPER 50S MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

STILL EXPECTING SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.  THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT SOME SOUTHEAST FLOW
MAY STILL AFFECT THE LAKESHORE AREAS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH MVFR
VSBYS IN FOG/HAZE.

EXPECT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT AND
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  THEN MORE THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.  SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS IN
ANY STORMS.

MARINE...

LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
WARM FRONT WILL BRING AREAS OF FOG.  THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
LATER TODAY BUT A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE.  LOOK FOR PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOME MAY BE SEVERE ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ052.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643.

&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1023 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-131530-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
1023 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND IT ENCOUNTERS
WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE REGION.

THERE WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISKS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A TORNADO RISK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEST OF MADISON.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER SHEBOYGAN
COUNTY REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED UNTIL 1 PM CDT FOR SHEBOYGAN
COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LMZ643>646-131530-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
1023 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISKS WOULD
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISKS.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON
THROUGH 2 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NORTHEAST WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1134 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 AM     HAIL             WATERTOWN               43.19N 88.72W
05/12/2014  M0.25 INCH       JEFFERSON          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RSCHAAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1137 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 AM     HAIL             2 N HUSTISFORD          43.37N 88.60W
05/12/2014  M1.00 INCH       DODGE              WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MBK

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