Small Craft Advisory 9, NWS Milwaukee, WI

762 
WHUS73 KMKX 181559
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
959 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2014

...GUSTY WEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN BLUSTERY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT. THE
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL CAUSE BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS TOWARD THE
OPEN WATERS IN ICE FREE AREAS.

LMZ643>646-182130-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0009.140119T0900Z-140119T2200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
959 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CST
SUNDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CST
SUNDAY. 

* WINDS: WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
  30 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

* WAVES: WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FEET IN ICE FREE 
  AREAS...WITH HIGHER WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
MRC

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

396 
WHUS73 KMKX 182202
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
402 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2014

...GUSTY WEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN BLUSTERY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL CAUSE BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS TOWARD THE
OPEN WATERS IN ICE FREE AREAS.

LMZ643>646-190615-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0009.140119T0900Z-140119T2200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
402 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CST
SUNDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CST
SUNDAY. 

* WINDS: WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 
  TO 30 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

* WAVES: 1 TO 3 FEET IN ICE FREE AREAS...WITH HIGHER WAVES TOWARD
  THE OPEN WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
MRC

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

240 
WHUS73 KMKX 190308
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
908 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2014

...GUSTY WEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN BLUSTERY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL CAUSE BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS TOWARD THE
OPEN WATERS IN ICE FREE AREAS.

LMZ643>646-191115-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0009.140119T0900Z-140119T2200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
908 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CST
SUNDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CST
SUNDAY. 

* WINDS: WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 
  TO 30 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

* WAVES: 1 TO 3 FEET IN ICE FREE AREAS...WITH HIGHER WAVES 
  TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
MG

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

473 
WHUS73 KMKX 190937
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2014

...GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...

.A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN BLUSTERY WEST WINDS TODAY OVER THE 
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL CAUSE BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS TOWARD THE
OPEN WATERS IN ICE FREE AREAS.

LMZ643>646-191745-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-140119T2200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
337 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* WINDS: WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
  33 KNOTS THIS MORNING DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. 

* WAVES: BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET IN ICE FREE AREAS...WITH HIGHER
  WAVES TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK

840 
WHUS73 KMKX 191549
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
949 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2014

...GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...

.A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN BLUSTERY WEST WINDS TODAY OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL CAUSE BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS TOWARD THE
OPEN WATERS IN ICE FREE AREAS.

LMZ643>646-192200-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-140119T2200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
949 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* WINDS: WEST TO SOUTHWEST TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 33
  KNOTS THIS MORNING DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

* WAVES: BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET IN ICE FREE AREAS...WITH HIGHER 
  WAVES TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
311 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2014

.TODAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WIND PROFILER NETWORK SHOWING VIGOROUS
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ND...MOVING SOUTHEAST.
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT MOVES FROM SRN MN THIS MRNG INTO CENTRAL IL THIS AFTN.  SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE THIS MORNING...WITH
NOD TO MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.  700H CIRCULATION MOVES ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST WI CORNER AROUND 18Z.  THICKNESS AND COBB ESTIMATES OF
SNOW LIQUID RATIO FAVOR AROUND 20 TO 1 VALUES...AND WITH QPF AROUND
TWO TENTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH IN MY FAR SOUTHWEST...SOME 3-4 INCH
SNOWFALLS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA.

MODERATE LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PASSES ACROSS THIS AREA THIS
MORNING...EXITING THE AREA RAPIDLY THIS AFTN.  GFS VALUES REACH -20
TO -30 IN THE MID-LAYERS THIS MORNING. IMPRESSIVE BUT BRIEF PERIOD
OF STRONG OMEGA IN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS WELL WITH A
PERIOD OF SLOPING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.  ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT
IN PLACE TO JUSTIFY POSTING WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR
LAFAYETTE...GREEN AND IOWA COUNTIES FOR TODAY.  SNOW AMOUNTS DROP
OFF RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS EXPECT A SHARP GRADIENT.  MADISON
SHOULD RECEIVE AROUND 1.0 WITH THAT INCH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO
AROUND KENOSHA.  LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN ONSHORE THIS AFTN SO A FEW
HOURS OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE BUT WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH DURING
THE EARLY EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SLIDES SOUTH.

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

EXPECT SOME FLURRIES OR THE VERY LIGHT SNOW TO BE RAPIDLY ENDING IN
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING AS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY
EAST FROM CENTRAL IL TO THE OH VALLEY. CLOUDS MAY CLEAR BRIEFLY BUT
INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN CANADA
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
QUICKLY INTO WI OVERNIGHT.  MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD RAPIDLY IN
DURING THE EVENING.  WL KEEP TEMPS MILDER BUT IF MORE CLEARING
DEVELOPS...TEMPS LIKELY TO BE COLDER THAN ANTICIPATED. MAY BE SOME
FLURRIES SHAKEN OUT OF THE MID-CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL SATURATION REMAINS MINIMAL SO WL HOLD OFF ON
MENTION FOR NOW.

.SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE
NORTH. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
SHOULD PULL SOME MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.

PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AT
TIMES AS A FEW SHORTWAVES ROLL THROUGH. THERE IS REASONABLE
AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AT THIS TIME THAT MONDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND
FRIDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW. NONE OF THE WAVES
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PRODUCE MUCH SNOW...MAYBE AN INCH AT MOST.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL
WAVES TO CHANGE THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
LOWER AT ALL TAF SITES LATER THIS MRNG AS -SN SPREADS IN FROM THE
WEST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR LIKELY TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SURGE
OF WARMER AIR AND BRISK WEST WINDS.  WIND GUSTS LIKELY TO REACH 25
KNOTS...SO WL BE POSTING SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR LATE TNGT INTO SUN
AFTN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ062-067-068.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
359 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2014

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-182200-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
359 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING SNOW ON SATURDAY
HAS STAYED TO THE WEST...MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA IN THE
MORNING...TO SOUTHEAST IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE AXIS OF HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL STAY
WEST OF MADISON. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH OR
LESS IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA...TO AROUND 3 INCHES WEST OF MADISON.
THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOULD COME THROUGH BETWEEN 6 AM AND NOON.

COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...HOWEVER SNOWFALL REPORTS
WILL BE APPRECIATED.

LMZ643>646-182200-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
359 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS
SUNDAY...WITH WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

REM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX