Small Craft Advisory 15, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WIND CHILLS HAVE REACHED WARNING CRITERIA IN ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS
TO THIS POINT AS TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN QUITE AS FAR AS
EARLIER EXPECTED. DO EXPECT A COMBINATION OF TEMPS COOLING A FEW
MORE DEGREES BY SUNRISE...AND INCREASING WINDS AFTER...TO LOWER
WIND CHILLS TO CRITERIA THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING WITH THE
COLDEST VALUES AROUND 13-14Z. SOUTHWEST LOCALES LOOK TO RISE ABOVE
-34 AROUND 16Z...BUT WILL NOT ADJUST END TIMES TO KEEP CONSISTENCY
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.

HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...WITH 1 OR 2
ABOVE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH WEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS BETWEEN 20- 25 MPH...WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW -20
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS FALL BACK DOWN TO BETWEEN -25
AND -30 TONIGHT AS TEMPS FALL OFF AFTER SUNSET...WITH LOWS AROUND
-10 AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND -5 TO -10 IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES
BEING REACHED BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...THEN STEADYING OR RISING A FEW
DEGREES BY 12Z.

PER COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL BE ISSUING
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AT THIS TIME TO BEGIN AFTER THE WARNING ENDS
AT 18Z TO RUN UNTIL 16Z WEDNESDAY AS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW -20 THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY..

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL RUN UNTIL 16Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...UNTIL WIND CHILLS RISE INTO THE 10 BELOW TO 18 BELOW ZERO
RANGE. WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SOUTHWEST WINDS WITHIN FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS EAST TO AROUND 20 WEST.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH OF A DROP OFF IN
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 20S.

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL THURSDAY. PASSING COLD
FRONT...ALONG WITH STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND A PASSING 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WILL PROVIDE GOOD UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SATURATION IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...INCLUDING THE DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE...DURING THIS TIME.

NAM/ECMWF SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN WITH TIMING OF
FEATURES...FOLLOWED THE GFS/CANADIAN TIMING IN FORECAST. RAISED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR THURSDAY FOR LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

QUIET BUT COOLER WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO IOWA. COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS COLDER AIR BACK INTO
THE AREA...AS LOWS DIP BELOW ZERO IN MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOW TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH BRINGING QPF INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE GFS ALMOST 12 HOURS SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN
QPF...AND THE LOW IS FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

EACH DO HAVE A DECENT 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ACCOMPANY THE
LOW. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT THEY MAY
NEED TO BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS IF BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING
IS REACHED. COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

MODELS THEN KEEP THE AREA FAIRLY QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH SOME MINOR VARIATIONS HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS PERIOD AS WELL...WHICH LEFT SMALL POPS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH ONLY MODERATE
WIND GUSTS TODAY. ONLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z WED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...

HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 12Z TODAY FOR
NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON...AND AT 15Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NEARSHORE FOR BRISK WEST WINDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
CRITERIA UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING SO HAVE END TIME OF ADVISORY AT 9
PM THURSDAY.

THE RECENT STRONG WINDS MAY HAVE BROKEN UP SOME OF THE ICE...WITH
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY SHOWING THE ICE SHIELD
HAS PUSHED OUT FROM THE ALONG THE SHORE WITH THE PERSISTENT
WESTERLY FLOW....BUT EXPECT AREAS OF ICE TO REMAIN. THE ICE AND
OFFSHORE FETCH WILL LIMIT WAVE HEIGHTS BUT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
STILL BE A CONCERN WHERE THERE ARE HIGH WAVES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-
     056>060-062>072.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST
     THURSDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

CORRECTED END TIME OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WOOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
945 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-282130-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
945 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON ON TUESDAY.

BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 BELOW ZERO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ643>646-282130-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
945 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH WAVES AND FREEZING SPRAY IN ICE FREE AREAS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY TOWARD OPEN WATER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY WILL CAUSE BLUSTERY WINDS LIKELY TO REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

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