Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Milwaukee, WI

889 
WWUS53 KMKX 012133
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
433 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

WIC089-117-131-012200-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-140801T2200Z/
OZAUKEE WI-SHEBOYGAN WI-WASHINGTON WI-
433 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN OZAUKEE...SOUTH CENTRAL SHEBOYGAN AND NORTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 433 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BELGIUM...OR
NEAR PORT WASHINGTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PORT WASHINGTON...SAUKVILLE...BELGIUM...FREDONIA...RANDOM LAKE...
WAUBEKA AND HARRINGTON BEACH ST PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO 
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4346 8780 4341 8785 4338 8786 4338 8787
      4330 8790 4349 8805 4359 8800 4354 8779
      4349 8779
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 303DEG 25KT 4346 8785 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

DAVIS

919 
WWUS53 KMKX 012144
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
444 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

WIC117-131-012153-
/O.CAN.KMKX.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-140801T2200Z/
SHEBOYGAN WI-WASHINGTON WI-

444 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SHEBOYGAN AND
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF 
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4341 8785 4338 8786 4338 8787 4330 8790
      4343 8798 4354 8791 4354 8779 4349 8779
      4344 8782
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 299DEG 14KT 4346 8784 

$$

WIC089-012200-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-140801T2200Z/
OZAUKEE WI-
444 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN OZAUKEE COUNTY...

AT 443 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BELGIUM...OR
NEAR PORT WASHINGTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PORT WASHINGTON...SAUKVILLE...BELGIUM...FREDONIA AND HARRINGTON BEACH
ST PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4341 8785 4338 8786 4338 8787 4330 8790
      4343 8798 4354 8791 4354 8779 4349 8779
      4344 8782
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 299DEG 14KT 4346 8784 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

DAVIS

848 
WWUS53 KMKX 012156
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
456 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

WIC089-012205-
/O.EXP.KMKX.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-140801T2200Z/
OZAUKEE WI-
456 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN OZAUKEE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 500 PM CDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. 
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4341 8785 4338 8786 4338 8787 4330 8790
      4343 8798 4354 8791 4354 8779 4349 8779
      4344 8782
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 307DEG 14KT 4346 8784 

$$

DAVIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
255 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT AND RIPPLES
WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WITH LITTLE SHEAR AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTING HAIL
TO CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT THREAT. LAKE BREEZE CLEARLY SEEN ON
KMKX RADAR TRANSLATING WESTWARD COULD RESULT IN SOME BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MESO MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IN
THE EVENING HOURS AND THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE LOSS OF HEATING.
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME OF THIS HANGING ON A BIT
LONGER WITH TAIL OF CANADIAN VORT MAX ARRIVING INTO SRN WI BETWEEN
6-12Z.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND MID LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON
MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOK. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE DOMINANT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW 500-1000 J/KG OF
CAPE. FORCING NOT CLEARLY EVIDENT BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING
QPF...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. WILL HAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN THERE FOR
NOW WITH SOME LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE THOUGH EXPECTING PRETTY SPOTTY COVERAGE IF ANYTHING
POPS.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SETS UP A SUBTLE
RETURN FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BECOMES
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC ONCE AGAIN. THE PROMINENT FORCING RELATED TO ANY
UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX OR VORT ACTION LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA. EVEN THE 850 FLOW LOOKS SOMEWHAT ANTICYCLONIC.
HARD TO LATCH ONTO MUCH OF A TRIGGER. WITH ALL THE MODELS SHOWING
QPF IT IS HARD TO IGNORE AND IF SOMETHING DEVELOPS TO OUR NW AND
RIDES DOWN IN THE FLOW...THAT IS A SCENARIO HARD TO IGNORE...SO
WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE QPF AND MOS GUIDE AND HAVE A
CHANCE IN THERE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FORCING PARAMETERS BECOME A BIT BETTER THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER
FLOW BECOMING INCREASING CYCLONIC. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES
AS SURFACE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SAGS TOWARDS SRN WI. NOTING SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS WELL WITH MORE FAVORABLE JET ACTION WITHIN THE
INCREASING UPPER FLOW.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
GEM AND ECMWF SHOW AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WHILE THE GFS IS
ESSENTIALLY KEEPING THINGS ON THE QUIETER SIDE. BOTH THE GFS AND
GEM SHOW LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO
RIDE ALONG AND NEAR AN 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WOULD BE HELPED
ALONG BY A STRONGER NW-SE JET MAX DIPPING SOUTH WITH ASSOCIATED
UPPER DIVERGENCE. FOR NOW WILL RIDE WITH THE ALLBLEND POPS
FAVORING THE CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM AT THIS POINT.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER REGIME TAKING
HOLD. THE GFS A BIT QUICKER ON BRINGING IN SOME RETURN WAA INDUCED
PCPN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF IS LESS DRAMATIC. WITH THE UPPER FLOW LOOKING OVERALL
UNSETTLED WILL NOT ALTER THE ALLBLEND POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...A MOSTLY VFR PERIOD WITH A COUPLE OF
CONCERNS. FIRST WILL BE THE ONGOING STORMS SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO
SRN WI WITH THE COLD UPPER TROUGH STILL ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR
NOT CONDUCIVE TO IMPRESSIVE STORM ORGANIZATION THOUGH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL POTENTIAL WITH ANY OF THESE POP UP
STORMS. AFTER STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING ANY LINGERING CLOUD
COVER WILL CLEAR OFF. WITH LIGHT WINDS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN GOING GRIDDED FORECAST SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED IN THIS REGARD. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES LESS
CYCLONIC THOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND INSTABILITY MAY
END UP GENERATING A FEW MORE SHRA/TSRA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
200 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-020945-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
200 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
REMAIN SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.  LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND UP TO ONE-INCH HAIL.

FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG COULD BECOME
DENSE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

LMZ643>646-020945-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
200 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
REMAIN SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.  LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND UP TO ONE-INCH HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
304 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

WIZ051-012030-
FOND DU LAC-
304 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FOND DU LAC COUNTY...

AT 303 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR OAKFIELD...OR NEAR
FOND DU LAC...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.  ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE WINNEBAGO...MOVING EAST.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FOND DU LAC...NORTH FOND DU LAC...OAKFIELD...TAYCHEEDAH...BYRON...
EDEN...MOUNT CALVARY...JOHNSBURG...PEEBLES...CALVARY AND WAUCOUSTA.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4366 8858 4389 8851 4389 8818 4362 8819
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 281DEG 10KT 4372 8847

DAVIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

WIZ046-012100-
MARQUETTE-
329 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MARQUETTE...

AT 328 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MONTELLO...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF PORTAGE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONTELLO...PACKWAUKEE...OXFORD...ENDEAVOR...GLEN OAK AND BRIGGSVILLE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS SLOW MOVING
STORM...AND MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

LAT...LON 4378 8930 4373 8927 4364 8925 4364 8928
      4365 8960 4386 8955 4386 8936
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 336DEG 12KT 4375 8947

DAVIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
356 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

WIZ066-071-012130-
MILWAUKEE-RACINE-
356 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MILWAUKEE...RACINE COUNTY...

AT 355 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER CUDAHY...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MILWAUKEE...OAK CREEK...SOUTH MILWAUKEE...CUDAHY AND ST. FRANCIS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS SLOW MOVING
STORM...AND MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

LAT...LON 4285 8790 4294 8794 4295 8794 4299 8788
      4298 8786 4296 8785 4286 8783 4285 8784
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 320DEG 8KT 4295 8784

DAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
400 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     HAIL             ST. FRANCIS             42.97N 87.87W
08/01/2014  E0.25 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   PUBLIC

&&

BHERZOG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
409 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             MONTELLO                43.79N 89.33W
08/01/2014  M1.00 INCH       MARQUETTE          WI   PUBLIC

            REPORTED WITH PICTURE VIA FACEBOOK.

&&

BHERZOG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
412 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     HAIL             CUDAHY                  42.95N 87.86W
08/01/2014  E0.75 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BHERZOG