River Flood Watch 2, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
246 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

NO NEED TO REHASH ALL THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER SUPPORT FOR THE
LINE OF STORMS. IT IS LARGE. THE LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS
AND REALITY SUGGEST THIS FIRST LINE WILL REACH MADISON BY 430-500
PM AND THE MILWAUKEE AREA BY 6-630 PM. IT WILL BE MOVING ABOUT 50
MPH. THE MAIN FOCUS MAY STAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT WE MAY SEE SOME DESCRETE DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECONDARY LINE FORMING
QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FIST ONE...BUT IT TAKES A STEP
SOUTH...SO THAT MAY END UP BEING JUST AN ILLINOIS PROBLEM...OR A
LINE THAT JUST HUGS THE STATE LINE.

WE SHOULD BE ALL CLEAR BY 9 TO 10 PM.

COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
THATS HELPING TO SUPPORT THESE EVENING STORMS. THE COMBO OF
ENOUGH RESIDULE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING IN SHOULD BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY/GUSTY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

THE UNSEASONBLY LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED TROFS ROTATING AROUND
IT. WE/LL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE COLD TEMPS
ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE WEAK FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVES INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN WHAT WE/VE SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES. WE SHOULD HAVE NEARLY PERFECT
CONDITIONS FOR ALL THE JULY 4TH ACTIVITIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.

.SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BEGIN TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOME A
LITTLE MORE ACTIVE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING A FEW WEAK
SHORT WAVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
TIGHT AT THE SURFACE. SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH IF
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WE MAY SEE. THE MODELS KICK
OUT LIGHT STUFF...SO IT WON/T LIKELY RUIN ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. WE COULD SEE WINDS GUST TO 70KTS IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THE STORMS SHOULD REACH MADISON BY AROUND 5 PM AND THE
MILWAUKEE/WAUKESHA/KENOSHA AREAS BY AROUND 6 PM. THE LINE OF
STORMS WILL BE MOVING ABOUT 45KTS. EXPECT THINGS TO IMPROVE
QUICKLY ONCE THE LINE AND THE TRAILING STRATOFORM RAIN CLEARS OUT.
THIS SHOULD OCCUR IN MADISON BY AROUND 02-03Z THIS EVENING AND
MILWAUKEE BY 05Z. LOOK FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS TUESDAY...15 TO 27KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOOK FOR WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS LATER TUESDAY MORNING
CONTINUING INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS AS COOLER AIR SPILLS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE EAST.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY BY EVENING. GIVEN THE OFFSHORE NATURE
OF THE WIND...THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER. A
FOOT OR LESS ALONG THE BEACH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
310 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-011015-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
310 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

EXPECT A LINE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO ROLL ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 4-
8 PM THIS EVENING.  THIS LINE COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY SOUTH OF A PORT WASHINGTON TO BEAVER DAM TO
DODGEVILLE LINE.  DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT NOT A LARGE
THREAT AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AND AGAIN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LMZ643>646-011015-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
310 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

BOATERS ARE URGED TO GET OFF THE WATER UNTIL A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 9 TO 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO BREEZY WEST WINDS. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE
OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER.

THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AND AGAIN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

DAVIS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

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