River Flood Warning 18, NWS Milwaukee, WI

862 
WGUS83 KMKX 140246
FLSMKX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
945 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WISCONSIN...
 
  FOX RIVER AT WAUKESHA AFFECTING WAUKESHA COUNTY
 

&& 
WIC133-140315-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-140514T0245Z/
/WKEW3.1.ER.140513T0250Z.140513T0315Z.140513T0530Z.NO/
945 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE FOX RIVER AT WAUKESHA.
* AT  8:15 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* FORECASTS ARE NOT ISSUED FOR THIS LOCATION.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...THERE IS SOME FLOODING OF BACK YARDS OF HOMES
  IN WAUKESHA ADJACENT TO THE RIVER.

&&
 
LAT...LON MISSING

$$

&&

RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR SOME BUT NOT ALL RIVER GAGING
LOCATIONS. THE 7 DAY RIVER FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT PAST
PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ETC..AND PREDICTED 
FUTURE 24 HOUR BASIN-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.
 
(STAGES IN FT.)        BANK-      LATEST         FORECAST STAGES
-               FLOOD  FULL      OBSERVED        ...FOR 7 PM...
LOCATION       STAGE  STAGE    STAGE/TIME       WED  THU  FRI  SAT
WAUKESHA         6.0   5.0   5.90 08 PM 05/13   NOT A FORECAST PT

-                   HIGHEST      24 HOUR CHANGE
-                   OBSERVED     IN RIVER STAGE
-                   STAGE IN      (FT.) UP TO      HIGHEST STAGE
-                   THE LAST    LATEST OBSERVED     FORECAST IN
-                   7 DAYS          STAGE           NEXT 7 DAYS
WAUKESHA         6.47  10 PM 05/12    0.17      ..NOT AVAILABLE..

...BELOW IS PREDICTED 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION INFORMATION FOR 
THE LISTED SITES...

(WKEW3)  6-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (IN.)
WAUKESHA: 7 PM-1 AM   0.00
WAUKESHA: 1 AM-7 AM   0.00
WAUKESHA: 7 AM-1 PM   0.00
WAUKESHA: 1 PM-7 PM   0.00

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1121 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

.UPDATE...

CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN LATE THIS EVENING AS THE BETTER 500MB
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND SURFACE THETA-E ADVECTION MOVES OUT OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN AND CAPE IS DIMINISHING. SURFACE L0W PRESSURE OVER
WEST CENTRAL WI WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM THE LOW ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER INTO EASTERN IOWA WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST AS WELL.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AMPLE MOISTURE AND 850MB FRONTOGENESIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL
OVER 1.5 INCHES. FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ARE TAPERING OFF WITH THE
CONVECTION...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS FOR
RISING RIVERS APPROACHING BANKFULL AND FLOOD STAGES.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO SOUTHERN WI BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HRRR
AND OTHER MESO MODELS TIME THAT FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI AROUND
4 AM AND SOUTHEAST WI 6-7 AM.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN BUT LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO SOUTHERN WI FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 4 AM AND 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING AND SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING
SHOWERS.

EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE
MORNING...THEN RECOVER TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM SINCE WEB CAMS SHOWED
IMPROVEMENT TO VISIBILITIES OVER THE LAKESHORE DUE TO THE RECENT
THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE VISIBILITIES TO DROP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL DRIER AIR CAN WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE FROM ERN IA INTO WRN WI AREA WILL LIFT TO
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. PLENTY OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNING.
SPC MESO CHARTS ARE SHOWING SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE PARAMETERS
ESPECIALLY INTO SC WI. SO HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR ALL FORMS OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOGENESIS. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SETTING UP FAR SRN WI WILL ONLY ADD TO THAT CONCERN.
ISOLATED STORMS ALREADY FIRING ACRS NRN IL. 0-6KM SHEAR AND 0-1KM
SHEAR GETS A LITTLE BETTER MOVING FROM IL INTO WI. LATEST HRRR
SHOWING IA DEVELOPMENT SPREADS ACRS SRN WI LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE WITH
LESS CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT. AIRMASS MAY BE PRETTY WORKED OVER BY THEN. TWO AREAS RECEIVED
DECENT RAINS...ONE BEING IN THE NW CWA NEAR THE DELLS AND THE OTHER
IN THE SE. WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS CONVECTION SHOULD
BE ON THE MOVE BUT ANY TRAINING ALONG THE OUTFLOW COULD CAUSE
PROBLEMS.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NNE INTO CANADA WITH COLD FRONT
SHIFTING TO THE EAST. EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHRA IN ERN CWA DURG THE
MRNG HRS. UPPER FLOW IS STILL SOUTHWEST SO THIS WILL LIKELY CARRY
SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES ALONG AND AHEAD OF 850 FRONT TO MAINTAIN RAIN
CHANCES IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SE 1/2. THEN WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WE CAN TAKE ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES OFF THE 925 TEMPS. SO TURNING COOLER...LESS HUMID AND LIKELY
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER TO CONTEND WITH. LLVL RH PROGS AND MOS
SKY COVER SUGGEST THIS... ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING LOW LEVEL
COOL POOL AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL TO THE WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A QUIET PERIOD AS DRY...COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO SOUTHERN WI.  85H
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 0C OVERNIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL KEEP
THE LOWEST LEVELS STIRRED ENOUGH TO KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS MOSTLY 40
TO 45F.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

UNCERTAINTY CREEPS IN LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR PRECIP
THREAT.  SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS.  MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKING ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER IL MAY BRING
SOME -RA TO SOUTHEAST WI WED NGT INTO THU.  HOWEVER LATEST CANADIAN
A LITTLE FARTHER EAST WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...WL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN MY
SOUTHEAST...DROPPING OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TO LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE AS
EXPECT A SHARP CUTOFF ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI.  LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILE FAVORS RAIN...HOWEVER IF SLIGHT ADDITIONAL COOLING WERE TO
TAKE PLACE...THEN COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN AT
TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

LOW MOVING NORTH FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS THE GTLAKES THU AND THU
NIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...ON INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED PERIOD OF COLD NORTHWEST WINDS REINFORCING CHILLY AIR OVER
SRN WI INTO SATURDAY.  THE UPPER LOW FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN
OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD ALLOW MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE
AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S
SEVERAL NIGHTS.  WL NEED TO WATCH NIGHT TIME CLOUD COVER AND THINK
ABOUT FROST POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NEXT WAVE OF STORMS APPROACHING FROM IOWA
WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. ISOLATED STORMS FIRING VCNTY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NRN IL. THESE MAY BECOME SVR. STORMS IN IA MOVG
INTO WI THIS EVE MAY BE SVR AS WELL. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS LESS
ACTIVITY LATER IN THE NIGHT AS AIRMASS STABILIZES ONCE THIS SURGE
PASSES. HOWEVER WILL STILL KEEP TSRA CHANCES DUE TO APPROACHING
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAWING CLOSER. DENSE FOG
CONCERNS ARE NORTH OF TAF SITES.

MARINE...WILL RETAIN DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH LATER IN THE NIGHT
FOR PORT WASHINGTON TO SHEBOYGAN AS THAT AREA ENTRENCHED IN THE
FOGGY CONDITIONS WITH COOL FLOW OFF THE LAKE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MRC
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
832 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-140145-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
832 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL 11 PM CDT.
MORE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.

THE SEVERE WEATHER RISKS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
FLOODING RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY IN SPOTS.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FRONT
AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE ALONG WITH MOIST HUMID
AIR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-140145-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
832 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF PORT WASHINGTON
UNTIL 11 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISKS ARE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MORE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON
THROUGH 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NORTHEAST WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
931 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

WIZ065-066-130315-
WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
931 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WAUKESHA...MILWAUKEE...

AT 931 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER WAUKESHA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NEW BERLIN AROUND 935 PM CDT.
  WEST ALLIS AND ELM GROVE AROUND 945 PM CDT.
  LANNON AROUND 950 PM CDT.
  BROOKFIELD...GREENFIELD AND BUTLER AROUND 955 PM CDT.
  MILWAUKEE...WAUWATOSA AND WEST MILWAUKEE AROUND 1000 PM CDT.
  WHITEFISH BAY...BROWN DEER AND RIVER HILLS AROUND 1010 PM CDT.
  FOX POINT AND BAYSIDE AROUND 1015 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE MAIR FESTIVAL PARK...
SHOREWOOD...MILLER PARK...MITCHELL PARK DOMES...LAPHAM PEAK ST
PARK...MILWAUKEE CO ZOO...UW-MILWAUKEE...MARQUETTE UNIVERSITY...
GLENDALE AND STATE FAIR PARK.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4305 8789 4303 8789 4289 8828 4306 8842
      4319 8814 4319 8789 4316 8788 4312 8790
      4310 8787 4307 8787
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 243DEG 25KT 4301 8824

GEHRING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
934 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

WIZ064-065-130300-
WAUKESHA-JEFFERSON-
934 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WAUKESHA...JEFFERSON...

AT 934 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PALMYRA...OR NEAR
WHITEWATER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DOUSMAN AROUND 950 PM CDT.
  WALES AND OCONOMOWOC AROUND 955 PM CDT.
  HARTLAND...DELAFIELD...OKAUCHEE LAKE AND LAC LA BELLE AROUND 1000
PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE CHENEQUA...HEBRON...
LAKE LAC LA BELLE...NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN...ROME...SULLIVAN...
MONTEREY...NASHOTAH...IXONIA AND HELENVILLE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4290 8881 4320 8861 4311 8825 4284 8856
      4284 8867
TIME...MOT...LOC 0234Z 213DEG 35KT 4291 8865

MARQUARDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
950 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW WAUKESHA           42.99N 88.27W
05/12/2014                   WAUKESHA           WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WATER COMING THROUGH BASEMENT WINDOWS OF HOME NEAR
            INTERSECTION OF SUNSET DRIVE AND SENTRY DRIVE.

&&

BHAHN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1035 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 PM     HEAVY RAIN       7 SE FORT ATKINSON      42.85N 88.74W
05/12/2014  E4.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING IN FARM FIELDS NEAR INTERSECTION OF HWYS U AND
            N. WATER FROM FARM FIELDS FLOWING OVER ROADS ABOUT 4
            INCHES DEEP. RAIN ESTIMATE OF 4 INCHES FOR THE DAY BASED
            ON NWS RADAR.

&&

BHAHN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1054 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 SE DOUSMAN            42.98N 88.43W
05/12/2014                   WAUKESHA           WI   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON HWY C AND MORRIS RD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR

0706 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E PEWAUKEE            43.09N 88.19W
05/12/2014                   WAUKESHA           WI   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON OVERHILL LANE AND DUPLAINVILLE RD

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S DOUSMAN             42.97N 88.47W
05/12/2014                   WAUKESHA           WI   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON HYW 67 AND ROAD X. TREES DOWN ON
            HWY 67 AND HWY ZZ

&&

SMARQUARDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1102 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE DOUSMAN            42.98N 88.43W
05/12/2014                   WAUKESHA           WI   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON HWY C AND MORRIS RD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR

&&

SMARQUARDT