Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 2, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
252 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AS 1000-900 MB WINDS HAVE
TURNED NNW. RAPID CLEARING WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER TROUGH WITH
RIDGING BRINGING QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER FOR TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION
BRINGS 925 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -15C TO -18C BY MORNING...
YIELDING LOWS OF -10F TO -15F OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AWAY FROM THE
LAKE...AND -15F TO -18F OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS WILL HOLD BETWEEN 0F AND -5F.

CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT SO ENOUGH GRADIENT FOR A LITTLE WIND TO DROP WIND CHILLS
TO BETWEEN 20 DEGREES BELOW AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL RAISE 925 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND -8C BY 00Z
SATURDAY ON 40-45 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WILL NOT FEEL FULL AFFECT OF
THESE TEMPS...BUT HIGHS WILL REACH 12 ABOVE TO 16 ABOVE. WE WILL BE
FEELING THE STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS...WHICH WILL KEEP WIND
CHILL VALUES AROUND ZERO FOR THE DAY.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION
KICKING IN AS A WEDGE OF WARMER TEMPERATURES PUSHES NORTH AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING STRONG COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPS RISING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEN LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BLAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN ABOUT 10 AM AND 2 PM ON SATURDAY. HIGHS
FOR THE DAY WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT AND
RELATED MID LEVEL TROF...WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR IN ON NORTHWEST WINDS AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. IT/S A STRETCH...BUT WILL CARRY A SMALL
CHANCE FOR MAINLY RACINE/KENOSHA COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
PROBABLY WON/T RISE AT ALL...JUST HOLDING STEADY FROM THE MORNING
LOWS.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL APPROACH LEVELS WE HAVEN/T
SEEN IN ABOUT 10 TO 15 YEARS. 925MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30 TO
-34 EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH GFS/ECMWF SFC TEMPS SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR -22 TO -25F. OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST WON/T BE QUITE
THAT LOW...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WEST WILL BRING WEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY ON...DIMINISHING BY TUESDAY. THIS
PUSHES WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO -38 TO -48 MON/TUE MORNINGS.
THESE ARE DANGEROUS LEVELS. IF THIS FORECAST HOLDS...EXPECT A
WIND CHILL WATCH GOING INTO EFFECT IN THE NEAR FUTURE WITH WIND
CHILL WARNINGS FOLLOWING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODIFY BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE MID 20S. THIS MAY RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...ANY LINGERING VFR CLOUDS WILL CLEAR SRN WI BY
00Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. THE CORE OF
THE HIGH WILL PASS BY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...WITH WARM ADVECTION
BRINGING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY ON GUSTY SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...WILL LET CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 12
MIDNIGHT AS WINDS EASE AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE BELOW CRITERIA BY
THEN. THE LULL WILL BE BRIEF AS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. 1000FT WINDS INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY TO
35 TO 40 KNOTS...WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN TO THE WATER SURFACE FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY UNTIL MIDDAY SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF BEFORE RISING TO GALE..SO
PER COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES WILL NOT DO A RAMP UP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AND GO TO A GALE WARNING STARTING AT 18Z
FRIDAY...THOUGH FREQUENT GUSTS AT/ABOVE 34 KNOTS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
19Z-20Z. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS/FREQUENT GUSTS UNTIL 18Z SATURDAY
WITH LIGHTER WINDS WITH SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO NOON CST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
743 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-031715-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
743 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL 10 AM
CDT. WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED. BRISK
SOUTH WINDS UP TO 20 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH ARE THEN
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
POSSIBLE SNOW COVERED ROADS IN OPEN AREAS.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 50 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN THAT
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...HOWEVER SNOWFALL REPORTS ARE
APPRECIATED.

LMZ643>646-031715-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
743 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR HIGH
WAVES CAUSED BY PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. A FEW GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT INTO THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY THROUGH NOON SATURDAY
FOR STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC
COLD FRONT. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD AS
WELL.

BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

DAVIS/GEHRING
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
612 PM CST THU JAN 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     SNOW             WEST ALLIS              43.01N 88.03W
01/02/2014  M5.9 INCH        MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OKLAHOMA AND I894. 1.6 FROM 230 AM TO 7AM. 5.9 INCHES
            FROM DEC 30 TO JAN 2.

&&

SM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
822 PM CST THU JAN 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HEAVY SNOW       MUSKEGO                 42.89N 88.12W
01/02/2014  M6.5 INCH        WAUKESHA           WI   PUBLIC

            SNOW TOTAL SINCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

MG