Flood Watch 1, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
243 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS NUDGED INTO SC
WI. MASSIVE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA...MID/UPPER 30S
IN THE NE CWA AND MID 70S IN THE SOUTH WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND
DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 50S. ELEVATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH 850-700
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING STILL TRAVERSING ACROSS CNTRL AND PORTIONS
OF SRN WI. THIS INITIAL 850 JET CORE WILL TRANSLATE EAST. MEANWHILE
STRONG HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURING FROM IOWA AND
ILLINOIS AND POINTS SOUTH WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS INTO FAR
SC WI. INSTABILITY PROGS...LI/S...MLCAPE...CRAVEN SIG/SVR...K INDEX
ALL SHOW THE DESTABILIZING TREND WELL INTO SC WI. 4KM WRF/RAP/HRRR
ARE ALL KEYING ON WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS IA WITH STORMS
TRANSLATING ACRS SRN WI THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE IN KS PROGGD TO LIFT
NE AND HELP INTIIATE STORMS WITHIN THE UNSTABLE AIR. ADDING FURTHER
SUPPORT WILL BE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF 200-300 MILLIBAR JET ACROSS U.P. STRONGEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF SURFACE WARM
FRONT...ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH. LAKE MICHIGAN HAS HAD ITS SAY
ON HOLDING UP THE NORTHWARD PUSH IN ERN WI. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
NEGATIVE IS THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM. BOTTOM LINE...AT
THIS POINT ENOUGH FAVORABLE FACTORS IN PLACE TO WARRANT THE SPC
SLIGHT RISK INTO SRN WI. SVR THREAT APPEARS GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE SFC WRM FRONT IN SC WI.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ACTIVE PATERN PERSISTS. WHILE ONE
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST THE ACTIVE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES. PROGS SUGGEST
A POTENTIAL LULL IN THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF STEADY
RAINS/THUNDER RIDING IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. 850 BAROCLINIC TIGHTENS
UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH A RENWED 850 JET CORE INCREASING ACROSS
ILLINOIS. THIS WILL MAXIMIZE FORCING ACROSS SRN WI.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH THE MAIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIFTING TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THE 250 MB WINDS DO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE.

THE 925/850/700 MB LATER IS SATURATED SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT DOES DRY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

700 UPWARD MOTION IS STRONG SUNDAY EVENING BUT WEAKENS AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING DOWNWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
THE FAR SOUTHEAST TIP.

BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF TAKES A LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SPREADS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE VALUES DROP...AND
NAM SOUNDINGS COOL ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. HOWEVER THIS
HAPPENS AFTER MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FALLS...SO DO NOT
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO CAUSE MUCH OF A PROBLEM.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

THE MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND CONVERGENCE BEHIND. WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BECOMES DOWNWARD.

MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN RH WEST OF MADISON
BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL WEDNESDAY AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT
SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTH WINDS OCCURS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM COLORADO TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYS NORTH AND WEST
WEDNESDAY.

THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A STRONGER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WEDNESDAY AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
12Z GFS KEEPS THE MAIN LOW OVER OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS.
THE 12Z GFS LIFTS THIS LOW INTO WISCONSIN THURSDAY WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF BRINGS IN HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND ITS DEPARTING LOW.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

THE 12Z GFS MOVES THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF LINGERS THE SURFACE HIGH. THE TIMING
REMAINS OFF BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A ROUND OF MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH AROUND AN
INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE AND
MADISON.

A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A LONG DURATION OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THE
COMBINATION OF TONIGHTS RAIN...AND THE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE.

HAVE ISSUED AN HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO SC WI WITH MORE STABLE
EASTERLY FLOW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. CLUSTER OF STORMS IN WC WI
LIKELY TO STAY NORTH OF TAF ROUTES THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE STORMS WILL BE TONIGHT WHEN RENEWED
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ACROSS IA AND ROLLS ACROSS SRN WI NEAR WARM
FRONTAL ZONE. AS LOW AND TROUGH MOVE ACRS SRN WI TNGT AND SUNDAY
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR. THIS PLAYED OUT ON MOS AND
LLVL RH PROGS. WHILE A BREAK IN RAIN/STORMS POSSIBEL DURING THE
MORNING EXPECTE A RENEWED SURGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PRETTY BORDERLINE NORTH OF SFC WARM
FRONT THOUGH SOME ONSHORE GUSTS TO AOA 20 KNOTS...SO WILL LEAVE AS
IS. AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO NUDGE...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLE BUT
LIKELY JUST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN LAKE ZONE. CONFIDNCE NOT HIGH
THAT THAT WARM FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO DRIVE NORTH ESPECIALLY WITH
SURFACE LOW WEAKENING TO MORE OF A BROAD TROUGH. GRADIENT TRYING TO
TIGHTEN UP AND WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A SMIDGE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.

&&

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-132015-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
315 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS A
WARM FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SMALL
RIVERS AND STREAMS COULD SEE RAPID RISES AND WE/LL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THEM FOR ANY POSSIBLE FLOODING.

THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO AN
INCH OR LESS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LMZ643>646-132015-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
315 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY EAST. THE WINDS MAY BECOME SOUTH MAINLY SOUTH OF
MILWAUKEE. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM FRONT BECOMING
STATIONARY NEAR THE SHORELINE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AND THERE IS A RISK OF HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

BRISK NORTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

HENTZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
129 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

WIZ058-064-130700-
JEFFERSON-DODGE-
129 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND DODGE
COUNTIES...

AT 128 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WATERTOWN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  JUNEAU AROUND 150 AM CDT.
  HUSTISFORD AROUND 155 AM CDT.
  MAYVILLE...HORICON AND IRON RIDGE AROUND 200 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE RICHWOOD...CLYMAN...
LEBANON...RUBICON...BURNETT...NEOSHO...MINNESOTA JUNCTION AND
WOODLAND.

LAT...LON 4342 8840 4338 8840 4309 8878 4314 8888
      4354 8869
TIME...MOT...LOC 0628Z 210DEG 33KT 4317 8879

WOOD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
134 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

WIZ058-059-130700-
WASHINGTON-DODGE-
134 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEASTERN DODGE COUNTIES...

AT 133 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER IRON RIDGE...OR NEAR
HARTFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MAYVILLE AROUND 150 AM CDT.
  THERESA AROUND 155 AM CDT.
  KEWASKUM AROUND 200 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE ALLENTON...ADDISON...
SAINT LAWRENCE...RUBICON...WAYNE...NENNO...NEOSHO...KOHLSVILLE AND
WOODLAND.

LAT...LON 4359 8840 4354 8840 4354 8828 4351 8820
      4325 8844 4334 8865 4362 8847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0633Z 210DEG 25KT 4336 8850

WOOD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
203 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

WIZ059-060-130730-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-
203 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND
OZAUKEE COUNTIES...

AT 202 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR JACKSON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MEQUON...GRAFTON AND CEDARBURG AROUND 210 AM CDT.
  SAUKVILLE AROUND 215 AM CDT.
  PORT WASHINGTON AND FREDONIA AROUND 220 AM CDT.
  BELGIUM AROUND 225 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE GERMANTOWN...RICHFIELD
AND HARRINGTON BEACH ST PARK.

LAT...LON 4338 8787 4331 8789 4319 8813 4326 8822
      4354 8787 4354 8780 4349 8779
TIME...MOT...LOC 0702Z 224DEG 46KT 4328 8810

WOOD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
220 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

WIZ069>072-130815-
ROCK-RACINE-WALWORTH-KENOSHA-
220 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ROCK...RACINE...
WALWORTH AND KENOSHA COUNTIES...

AT 219 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR WHITEWATER...TO NEAR CLINTON...TO NEAR
WINNEBAGO...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SHARON AROUND 230 AM CDT.
  EAST TROY AROUND 235 AM CDT.
  WILLIAMS BAY...WALWORTH...FONTANA-ON-GENEVA LAKE AND POTTER LAKE
AROUND 240 AM CDT.
  MUKWONAGO AROUND 245 AM CDT.
  ROCHESTER AND BROWNS LAKE AROUND 250 AM CDT.
  WATERFORD NORTH AND PELL LAKE AROUND 255 AM CDT.
  WIND LAKE...GENOA CITY...POWERS LAKE AND EAGLE LAKE AROUND 300 AM
CDT.
  TWIN LAKES AND BOHNERS LAKE AROUND 305 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE KANSASVILLE...
WATERFORD...MILLARD...SPRINGFIELD...FRANKSVILLE...SALEM...
BURLINGTON...BRISTOL...ELMWOOD PARK AND TIBBETS.

LAT...LON 4250 8892 4284 8869 4284 8781 4280 8778
      4271 8777 4261 8782 4249 8780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0719Z 267DEG 36KT 4280 8865 4248 8885 4225 8918

WOOD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
247 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

WIZ064>066-069>072-130830-
WAUKESHA-JEFFERSON-MILWAUKEE-ROCK-RACINE-WALWORTH-KENOSHA-
247 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN
WAUKESHA...SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...SOUTHERN MILWAUKEE...EASTERN
ROCK...RACINE...WALWORTH AND KENOSHA COUNTIES...

AT 246 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR MILTON TO NEAR GENOA...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PALMYRA AROUND 300 AM CDT.
  EAST TROY AROUND 310 AM CDT.
  MUKWONAGO AND POTTER LAKE AROUND 315 AM CDT.
  ROCHESTER AND BROWNS LAKE AROUND 320 AM CDT.
  BIG BEND AND WATERFORD NORTH AROUND 325 AM CDT.
  UNION GROVE...WIND LAKE AND EAGLE LAKE AROUND 330 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE KANSASVILLE...
FRANKLIN...SHOPIERE...WATERFORD...MILLARD...SPRINGFIELD...
FRANKSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN CENTER...BURLINGTON AND BRISTOL.

LAT...LON 4250 8893 4281 8902 4299 8787 4295 8784
      4288 8785 4284 8783 4278 8775 4276 8777
      4273 8777 4266 8781 4261 8782 4252 8781
      4249 8780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0746Z 266DEG 46KT 4276 8884 4215 8862

WOOD

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