Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1021 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RETURN NORTH
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TODAY...AS ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD
OF IT. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE GOOD FORCING AND LIFT ACROSS
ENC...AND EXPECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS STRONGEST STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
TRIAD REGION LATEST MESO MODELS INTIATING COVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
NC AROUND 17-18Z AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IMPROVES.

WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA...ONLY
CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES PER
NSSL WRF. PWATS FROM KMHX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS PWATS AROUND 1.7" BUT
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIP
RATES WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IN LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
FAIRLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING
INSTABILITY...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TSTM WITH GUSTY
WINDS. STILL THINK THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOCALIZED FLOODING.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE 85-90 DEGREES...WITH A FEW LOWER 90S IN THE SW SECTIONS. TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES 95-100
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WITH
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND PUSHING OFF THE COAST. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST EARLY TAPERING
OFF TO CHANCE LATE...AS SFC LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSH THROUGH
VA/NC. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PREV FCST. SFC LOW
NEAR VA BORDER TUE MORN WITH BULK OF PRECIP OFFSHORE. AS THE LOW
DRIFTS E WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S INTO THE REGION AND AS
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACH FROM THE W EXPECT SCT SHRA AND
TSRA TO REDEVELOP TUE AFTN AND EVENING. WILL HAVE ENOUGH SUN FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND TUE. PRECIP SHLD DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS
SHORT WAVE SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. CONT
MOSTLY DRY WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH MAINLY JUST WDLY SCT SHRA AND
TSRA WED AFTN ASSOC WITH SEA BRZ. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NW THU WITH
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSSING JUST TO THE N...SHLD SEE ENOUGH LIFT
COMBINED WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE SCT TSRA
ESPCLY INLAND. DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN AND LOW LVL THICKNESS RDG OVER
THE AREA WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 90 TO 95 DGR RANGE INLAND WED
AND THU WITH UPR 80S BEACHES.

WILL CONT PREV FCST OF JUST SMALL CHC OF SHRA/TSRA THU NIGHT HOWEVER
CANT RULE OUT A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ASSOC WITH SHRT
WAVES PASSING THRU UPR TRF. BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S THRU
THE REGION FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH CONT CHC OF SCT CONVECTION. WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER FRI WITH HIGHS AROUND 90. FRONT WILL PUSH S OF
REGION SAT BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL CONT OVER THE AREA TO KEEP CHC
POPS GOING. MAINLY DRY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN
FROM THE N. NE FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM MON...PATCHY MVFR FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES TODAY...WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
LIKELY. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUE...MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE VFR...HOWEVER WILL
SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO CONVECTION...ESPCLY
TUE AND FRI. WINDS AT NIGHT WILL BE LIGHT SO CANT RULE OUT PATCHY
FOG AND STRATUS AT TIMES IN THE EARLY MORN HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM MON...CURRENT OBS SHOW W/SW WINDS 5-10KT STRONGEST
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS...WITH SEAS 2-3FT. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TODAY...WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT...PEAKING TONIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 2-3
FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUILDING TO 3-4FT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...SHLD HAVE DECENT BOATING WX THRU THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF SCT CONVECTION. SFC LOW NEAR VA BORDER EARLY TUE WILL
DRIFT OFFSHORE PUSHING A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY S THRU THE REGION TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A PUSH AND WILL
LIKELY WASHOUT BEFORE CROSSING SRN TIER TUE NIGHT. LIGHT N/NE WINDS
WILL DVLP NRN WTRS TUE AFTN AND CONT INTO THE EARLY WED. OVER SRN
WTRS WINDS WILL REMAIN WSW TUE THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUE
NIGHT. S/SW WINDS GRADUALLY RETURN WED/WED NIGHT AS FRONT DISSIPATES
AND TRF DEVELOPS INLAND...SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY AOB 10
KTS. WSW FLOW WILL CONT THU AND THU NIGHT WITH TRF INLAND AND BACK
DOOR FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S THRU
THE NRN WTRS FRI. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THRU THE EXTENDED
PD...POSS SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER WTRS TUE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
312 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-190800-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
312 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS IS
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
156 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

NCZ080-093-094-181845-
BEAUFORT-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
156 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS PAMLICO...BEAUFORT AND
CRAVEN COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 156 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
ERNUL...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTH OF NEW BERN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CAYTON...BLOUNTS
CREEK...COX CROSSROADS......EDWARD...BONNERTON...CORE POINT......
GOOSE CREEK STATE PARK.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3543 7660 3542 7660 3540 7664 3542 7670
      3542 7677 3544 7682 3545 7691 3548 7698
      3544 7696 3546 7692 3542 7688 3543 7684
      3539 7679 3537 7670 3536 7669 3512 7706
      3524 7723 3565 7699
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 219DEG 17KT 3525 7708

26

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
159 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

NCZ080-092>095-181845-
BEAUFORT-CARTERET-CRAVEN-JONES-PAMLICO-
159 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PAMLICO...CARTERET...
BEAUFORT...CRAVEN AND JONES COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 159 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
FAIRFIELD HARBOR...OR ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JAMES CITY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ARAPAHOE...
GRANTSBORO...SILVER HILL...ALLIANCE...BAYBORO...STONEWALL.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 7715 3542 7658 3535 7664 3526 7646
      3517 7661 3508 7641 3514 7654 3503 7643
      3501 7650 3510 7656 3500 7654 3506 7660
      3502 7667 3499 7660 3496 7670 3507 7700
      3494 7680 3489 7699
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 239DEG 16KT 3504 7689

2

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
213 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

NCZ046-047-181915-
TYRRELL-WESTERN DARE-
213 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS TYRRELL AND MAINLAND DARE
COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 213 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES
WEST OF FRYING PAN LANDING...OR ABOUT 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ENGELHARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GUM NECK...FRYING PAN
LANDING......LEVELS...ALLIGATOR...FORT LANDING...EAST LAKE...MASHOES.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM
YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 7600 3595 7597 3598 7592 3598 7585
      3586 7576 3578 7599 3582 7600 3590 7598
      3592 7600 3585 7606 3581 7604 3575 7605
      3567 7627 3569 7627 3569 7629 3583 7638
      3600 7606
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 241DEG 19KT 3580 7622

8