Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
259 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY AND
MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
COLD FRONT CROSSING FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM SAT...BANDS OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. ATMS IS
FAIRLY UNSTABLE FOR JANUARY WITH SFC BASED CAPES A0A 1000 SOME
INLAND SPOTS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WL LIKELY BE ASSOC WITH THE
BANDS OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL NC. THESE SHRA AND
STORMS MAY INCREASE A BIT AS THEY MOVE INTO MORE UNSTABLE
AIR...ALSO HAVE INCREASING LOW LVL JET PROGED TO BE OVER 50 KTS
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ACROSS ERN NC. COMBO OF INSTAB AND SHEAR
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLD TORNADO THREAT. CONT
TO HAVE ACTIVITY STREAMING ONSHORE NEAR CST AND THIS HAS REMAINED
BELOW SVR LVLS HOWEVER AS LOW LVL JET INCREASES WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THESE VERY CLOSELY. FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY 06Z AND
EXPECT PRECIP TO END QUICKLY FROM W TO E LATE THIS EVENING. SOME
CAA WILL KICK IN LATE WITH LOWS MAINLY 45 TO 50.

HAVE SEEN CPL SITES NEAR IMD CST GUST TO AROUND 40 KT THIS AFTN
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND WITH LOW LVL JET PROGGED TO INCREASE
HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVSRY FOR CARTERET AND OBX TIL LATE THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY WILL GRAD DIMINISH AND BECOME
MORE WRLY LATE. HIGHS MAINLY 55 TO 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE AREA SUN
EVENING WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON AS A ROBUST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS QUICKLY
DAMPEN THE SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
SHIFTED THE LOW PRES CENTER FARTHER SOUTH FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DRIER GFS NOW OFF THE SE COAST AND WETTER
ECMWF ALONG THE SC/NC COAST. CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE
AREA MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUES WITH THE COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH TUES AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL
INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE...SEVERE
CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS TIME AS MODELS DEPICTING POSITIVE
LI'S ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
MON THROUGH TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TUES
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT. FORCING AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WED BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED AND QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH
QUICKLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THURS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDING IN THURS. CYCLONIC FLOW RETURNS ALOFT
THURS NIGHT AND FRI WITH THE SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER LIMITED WITH
THIS NRN STREAM SYSTEM AS WELL WITH MAINLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRI NIGHT. TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S INLAND TO 30S COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 1 PM SAT...UNPLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY AS A POTENT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.  A FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MARCHING
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...COMING OFF THE
WATER AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE AFTER 20Z OR SO AND SLOWLY CROSS THROUGH
BY 03Z OR SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE LLWS
ISSUES...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE SHIELD OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE IN THE EVENING
WITH THE AREA SLOWLY CLEARING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY WESTERLY
WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES AND SOME SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLDER AND
DRIER AIR RETURNS FOR MIDWEEK AND ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDS...ALTHOUGH EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SAT...STRONG SSW LOW LVL JET WILL CROSS THRU THE
MID TO LATE EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED PAMLICO TO
GALE WARNING WITH SCA CONT FAR NORTH. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD
TO SEAS 10 TO 13 FEET OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS THIS EVENING. AFTER
FRONT CROSSES WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W AT 20 TO 25 KT THEN BECOME
MORE NW LATE. SEAS WILL DROP SLOWLY TO 7 TO 10 FT OUTER WTRS LATE.
ON SUNDAY THE NW WINDS WILL GRAD DIMINISH AND BECOME W 10 TO 15 KT
LATE. SEAS SHOULD GRAD DROP BELOW 6FT FOR ALL BUT THE OUTER CNTRL
WTRS BY LATE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW UP TO 15-20 KT MON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WHILE SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3-5
FT. WINDS/SEAS INCREASE FURTHER LATE MON NIGHT TUE JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...UP TO 25 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 4-7 FT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT
THE PREFERRED ECMWF AND NAM DELAY FROPA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. WINDS BECOME W 5-15 KT TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO
3-5 FT. WINDS QUICKLY BACK TO SW AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KT WED
AHEAD OF A SECONDARY FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONGER CAA BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS
ELEVATED...NW AROUND 15-25 KT...INTO THURS MORNING. SEAS GENERALLY
3-6 FT WED INTO THURS MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH SOME THURS
AFTERNOON...THEN BACK TO SW AROUND 10-20 KT THURS NIGHT WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2-5 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SAT JAN 11TH

NEW BERN     77    1977
HATTERAS     69    2013
WILLIAMSTON  75    1974
GREENVILLE   78    1930
KINSTON 7SE  80    1901
MANTEO AP    75    1974
WARSAW 5E    74    2008

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ130.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/LEP
MARINE...RF/SK
CLIMATE...RF

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