Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
651 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTH INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY... ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NW TIER SO FAR
WITH INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS PRODUCING HAIL AND A FEW REPORTS OF
TORS. RGNL RDRS SHOW MORE LINEAR BAND TO THE W ASSOC WITH SHRT
WAVE AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NRN TIER NEXT FEW HRS.
CONT HIGH POPS NRN TIER AND TAPER OFF TO LOWER CHC SRN TIER. MAIN
SVR THREAT STILL LOOKS LIKE WILL IMPACT NRN SECTIONS WITH MAIN
BAND AS STILL HAVE DECENT COMBO OF INSTAB AND SHEAR...THE INSTAB
SHLD START TO WEAKEN NOW WITH THE SUN GOING DOWN. TORNADO WATCH
CONTS FOR ALL BUT CARTERET THRU 01Z. DRY AIR WILL SWEEP IN LATER
THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E AND SKIES CLEARING
LATER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 50S COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO
AROUND 60/LOWER 60S CNTRL BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM SATURDAY ...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL CROSS TO THE S WITH
DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 INLAND TO LOWER 70S OBX. NW WIND WILL BE
GUSTY EARLY ESPCLY CNTRL/NRN CST THEN WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH QUICKLY
BUILDS TO THE S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRI...NO BIG CHANGES TO LONG TERM PERIOD DUE TO
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO SYNOPTIC REGIME. SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND STALL TO THE S SUNDAY.
THICKNESSES DROP A BIT BEHIND THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY NE TIER WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 60S NE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S SW. RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE LATER MON WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SW LIFTING NE AS
A WARM FRONT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER MON ESPECIALLY INLAND
AND CONTINUE SMALL POP IN THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INC
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH PRECIP CHANCES INC QUITE A BIT.

ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO LOWER POPS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AS BOTH
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS/ECM INDICATE BRIEF RIDGING OVER THE AREA
WITH DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMING S TO SW. STACKED UPPER LOW STALLS
NEAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS
LOW TO NEAR OR JUST N AND W OF THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA LATE IN THE PERIOD AND
HAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE CHC TO GOOD CHC RANGE THIS FAR OUT. WILL
BE MAINLY IN WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WITH WARMEST READINGS WED WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH  SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...BAND OF STRONG TO SVR TSRA WILL MOVE ENE
NEXT FEW HRS WITH BEST CHC AT ISO AND PGV. COULD SEE WINDS GUST
OVER 40 KT AND HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS WITH BRIEF MVFR TO IFR.
GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL CONT NEXT FEW HRS AHEAD OF FRONT. LATER THIS
EVENING DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE W ENDING PRECIP THREAT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VFR. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE S OF REGION
SAT WITH CONT VFR WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT THOUGH MON
WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE
REGION MON NIGHT AND TUES WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA AND
POSSIBLY TSRA WITH SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES POSSIBLE. MAINLY
DRY TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN INC LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SAT/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...HAVE ADDED ALL WTRS TO SCA THRU EVENING WITH
MANY SITES OVER LAND GUSTING AOA 25 KTS AND MDLS INDICATE THESE
WINDS WILL SLIDE OVER COAST NEXT FEW HRS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIF CHANGES
WITH SHRA/TSRA ENDING LATER THIS EVENING OR AROUND MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISC...GRDNT WILL CONT TIGHTEN THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS.
CONT SCA HEADLINE SRN AND CNTRL CSTL WTRS. AS FRONT CROSSES LATER
TONIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW AND REMAIN GUSTY INTO SAT MORN.
EXTENDED SCA FOR CNTRL WTRS TILL LATER SAT MORN AS SOME GUST TO 25
KTS AND POSS 6 FT SEAS WILL CONT ESPCLY OUTER WATERS. AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES TO THE S LATER SAT WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND GRAD
BECOME SW WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL
WTRS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. WSW WINDS COULD REACH 15-20 KTS
AHEAD THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS CLOSE TO 15-20 KTS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND FRONT EARLY SUN. SEAS MAINLY
2-4 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH POSSIBLY SOME A FEW 6 FOOTERS OUTER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS ON SUN WITH MODERATE NE WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUES WITH S WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20
KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 3 TO 5 FT. SW FLOW INC WED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD SCA POSSIBLY DEVELOPING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131-
     135>137-150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG/TL
AVIATION...RF/TL
MARINE...RF/TL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
359 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-260800-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
359 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE BEST TIMING WOULD APPEAR TO BE FROM
ROUGHLY 3 TO 4 PM THROUGH ABOUT 11 PM THIS EVENING. THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA APPEAR TO HAVE THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SEEING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
752 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     TORNADO          CHOCOWINITY             35.51N  77.10W
04/25/2014                   BEAUFORT           NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND. VISIBLE BY FIRE DEPARTMENT
            PERSONNEL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1400319

TSAAVED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
756 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     HAIL             1 NW WASHINGTON         35.57N  77.06W
04/25/2014  E1.00 INCH       BEAUFORT           NC   SPOTTER

            ONE INCH HAIL REPORTED BY SPOTTER 1 4 MILE SW OF
            AIRPORT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1400320

TSAAVED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
801 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

NCZ044>047-080-081-090>094-098-103-260045-
BEAUFORT-CRAVEN-DUPLIN-JONES-LENOIR-MAINLAND HYDE-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS
DARE-PAMLICO-PITT-TYRRELL-WASHINGTON-WESTERN DARE-
801 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PAMLICO...TYRRELL...
WASHINGTON...MAINLAND HYDE...ONSLOW...BEAUFORT...CRAVEN...DUPLIN...
JONES...OUTER BANKS DARE...MAINLAND DARE...LENOIR AND PITT COUNTIES
THROUGH 845 PM EDT...

AT 800 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTH OF
NEWFOUNDLAND TO TERRA CEIA TO MOSS HILL...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF WEEKSVILLE TO 14 MILES SOUTH OF PLYMOUTH TO 7
MILES SOUTH OF LA GRANGE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 7556 3536 7648 3551 7659 3554 7648
      3553 7662 3538 7657 3548 7699 3533 7657
      3494 7745 3511 7811 3566 7689 3597 7649
      3596 7601 3565 7603 3604 7572 3618 7576
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 270DEG 39KT 3612 7619 3566 7677
          3520 7779

$$ 9

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
807 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             WASHINGTON              35.56N  77.05W
04/25/2014  E1.75 INCH       BEAUFORT           NC   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON SUMMIT AVE IN
            WASHINGTON

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1400321

TSAAVED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
811 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     HAIL             1 NNW WASHINGTON        35.57N  77.06W
04/25/2014  E1.75 INCH       BEAUFORT           NC   SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED GOLF SIZE HAIL AT WEST 15TH STREET AND
            MINUTE MAN LANE

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1400322

TSAAVED