Beach Hazards Statement 8, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
124 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA COAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE LOW OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
MOVE NORTH MID WEEK AND MAY COMBINE WITH A FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NC AS UPPER RIDGE AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. THE MULTILAYER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE PRECLUDING THE USUAL DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ANY CUMULUS FIELDS TODAY WILL BE SHALLOW THUS
EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORT FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S COAST. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE AS DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THINK SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AS WINDS DECOUPLE LATE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S COAST WITH SOME
SHALLOW PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE
WEEK AND WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS. DUE TO
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS REGARDING POTENTIAL TROPICAL MODELS FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HPC SOLUTION. HOT AND DRY
TUESDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND THE MIDSTATE SURFACE TROF FAR
ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.
BY WEDNESDAY TIME SECTIONS SHOW BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. WILL BRING BACK
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
DAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AND PEAK ON FRIDAY AS LOW
PASSES BY AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A MAINLY VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE WHILE STILL INFLUENCING THE
WEATHER. EXCEPTION WILL BE A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD LATE TONIGHT WHEN
SHALLOW/PATCHY LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP AND PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR/ISOLATED IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIFT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRI/
AS OF 230 AM MON...LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY AND ENDS UP VERY WET.
GENERALLY VFR/DRY TUESDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AT
TERMINALS PGV AND ISO ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGHOUT ON THURSDAY...BECOMING WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY WITH IMPACT
OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW 10 KT OR LESS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON THEN VEER TO SOUTHEAST LATE TODAY AND SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO 2-3 FT IN MOSTLY IN
SE SWELL.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRI/
AS OF 230 AM MON...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY IN BETWEEN BERMUDA
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSES BY ON FRIDAY
WINDS WILL BACK FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING TO NORTH TO
NORTHWEST BY EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL...FROM 2-3 FEET TUESDAY TO 8-11 FEET LATE IN THE WEEK. PLEASE
REFER TO TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FOR LATEST INFO ON LOW
PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...BTC/JME/HSA
MARINE...BTC/JME/HSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
535 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-098-010945-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-ONSLOW-
535 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK. IMPACTS WILL DEPEND
ON THE FORMATION...TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THESE FACTORS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL AS
COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-103-104-010945-
CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
535 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK. IMPACTS WILL DEPEND
ON THE FORMATION...TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THESE FACTORS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL AS
COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.