Special Weather Statement, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
250 PM PDT TUE AUG 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...A COMBINED RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS THE
DEFORMATION BAND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAS MOVES LITTLE ALL
MORNING. MEANWHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUD DESK FROM THIS MORNING HAS
NOW VANISHED ALLOWING THE SUN TO GET THROUGH AND ALLOW FOR DAYTIME
HEATING TO OCCUR. SOME CU IS STARTING TO BUILD UP ALONG THE CASCADES
AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. A FEW CELLS ARE DEVELOPING JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE BEAVER COMPLEX AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL BEAR CLOSE WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.

THE CLEARING AND DAYTIME HEATING ARE GOING TO HELP PRIME THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP INTO THIS EVENING.
THE MODELS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY SETTING UP OVER NORTHERN
CAL AND MAYBE AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. COULD
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA, BUT MID LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
ACTIVITY.

STEERING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTHEAST,
THEREFORE EXPECT STORMS TO BE SLOW MOVERS AND DRIFT FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST. ALSO COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS THAT COULD REACH
SEVERE LEVELS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND PRODUCING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WITH HAIL POSSIBLE. PWATS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND ARE AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH AND THE 12Z SOUNDING
THIS MORNING SHOWED 1.30 INCHES OF PWAT. SO THERE IS PLENTY OF JUICE
WITH WORK WITH. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT SOME OF THE FIRE COMPLEXES
COULD GET WETTING RAINS IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OR MOVE OVERHEAD,
HOWEVER THIS COULD ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER
THE OLD AND NEW BURN SCARS. ALSO FREQUENT LIGHTING WILL BE A HAZARD
FOR CREWS WORKING THE FIRES.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING INTO MODOC...EASTERN
SISKIYOU AND SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF THE
ACTION SHOULD START TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS MID LEVEL DRYING
PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP, THEY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE SHASTA TRINITY
NORTHEAST TO MEDICINE BOW PEAK AND PARTS OF MODOC COUNTY.

THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY KICKS EAST THURSDAY AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
IN. HOWEVER THE MODELS, IN PARTICULAR THE NAM SUGGEST ISOLATED
STORMS COULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE
SHASTA TRINITY NORTHEAST TO MEDICINE BOW PEAK...PARTS OF MODOC AND
SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE GFS AND EC DO NOT SHOW AS
MUCH INSTABILITY, BUT I'M NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE THEM.

ON FRIDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODELS
SHOW MOST OF THE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES, SO I
PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS THERE. HOWEVER WINDS COULD PICK UP
SOME IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER, BUT WINDS WILL BE OF
CONCERN FOR EXISTING FIRES. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE FEATURE
WHILE THE EC IS WEAKER WHICH IF CORRECT COULD RESULT IN DRIER AND
LESS WINDY CONDITIONS.

THE EC AND GFS DIVERGE AFTER FRIDAY. THE EC SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND SETTING UP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. IN CONTRAST THE GFS IS SLOWER TO KICK FRIDAY'S UPPER
TROUGH OUT AND ACTUALLY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON STATE. BOTTOM LINE IS CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY IS LOW AND
THUS HAVE LEFT THE EXTENDED LARGELY UNCHANGED. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION....AVIATION...FOR THE 05/18Z TAFS...
SCATTERED LOCALLY INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE CASCADES SOUTH OF LAKE OF THE
WOOD, ACROSS THE EAST SIDE, AND SOUTH OF THE SISKIYOUS. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CAUSE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS WELL AS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED IFR VISIBILITIES. THESE
STORMS WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SMOKE
AWAY FROM THE COAST. ALONG THE COAST A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 03Z AND 17Z. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT 5 AUG 2014...
A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS BETWEEN 5 AND 60
NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS EVENING. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN SOME ON WEDNESDAY CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE
AND SEAS TO BUILD FURTHER. THIS PATTERN WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY BEFORE STRENGTHENING AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ623>625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
512 PM PDT TUE AUG 5 2014

CAZ083-060100-
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY CA-
512 PM PDT TUE AUG 5 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY UNTIL 600
PM PDT...

AT 509 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FOUR CORNERS SNOW PARK...OR 10 MILES EAST
OF TENNANT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TROUT CREEK CAMPGROUND.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4135 12164 4141 12196 4162 12178 4159 12166
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 014DEG 6KT 4156 12174

MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
521 PM PDT TUE AUG 5 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND GST     MALIN                   42.01N 121.40W
08/05/2014  E35 MPH          KLAMATH            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT 4:45 PM, SPOTTER REPORTS AN ESTIMATED
            35MPH WIND GUST OCCURRING AT 4:30 PM PDT.

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
528 PM PDT TUE AUG 5 2014

CAZ083>085-060115-
MODOC COUNTY CA-NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY
CA-NORTHEAST SISKIYOU AND NORTHWEST MODOC COUNTIES CA-
528 PM PDT TUE AUG 5 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MODOC AND EASTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM PDT...

AT 525 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAVA BEDS NATIONAL MONUMENT...OR 39 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF KLAMATH FALLS...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TIONESTA...DOORKNOB SNOW PARK
AND MEDICINE LAKE CAMPGROUND.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4144 12145 4159 12172 4179 12146 4172 12128
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 017DEG 12KT 4169 12145

MAS