Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Medford, OR

861 
WWUS56 KMFR 020401
SVSMFR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
901 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

ORC037-020410-
/O.EXP.KMFR.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-140802T0400Z/
LAKE OR-
901 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

THE STORM HAS WEAKENED AND WILL CROSS OUT OF THE COUNTY 
SHORTLY...THUS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE. 

LAT...LON 4361 11989 4340 11988 4332 12003 4345 12022
      4362 12021 4362 11997 4362 11989
TIME...MOT...LOC 0344Z 180DEG 0KT 4349 12008

$$

WRIGHT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
145 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS AND SMOKE (AIR QUALITY) ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. MUCH OF SOUTHWEST OREGON WAS IMPACTED BY SMOKE LAST YEAR
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR AS LIGHTNING-INITIATED FIRES BROKE OUT THE
MORNING OF JULY 26, 2013. AT THAT TIME THE WORST SMOKE WAS OVER
THE REGION FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS. TODAY IS A REMINDER THAT FIRE
WEATHER IS THE "SEVERE" WEATHER IN THIS REGION DURING THE SUMMER.

WE HAVE A NUMBER OF BIG EVENTS OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THE CAPE BLANCO COUNTRY MUSIC FESTIVAL
NEAR CAPE BLANCO STATE PARK, DUNEFEST IN WINCHESTER BAY, AND THE
CASCADE LAKES RELAY RUN FROM DIAMOND LAKE TO SILVER LAKE TO LA
PINE AND BEND. THE TWO COASTAL EVENTS WILL HAVE COOL TEMPERATURES,
CLOUDS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY AT DUNEFEST, AND BOTH EVENTS WILL
EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS. FOR TODAY, THE RELAY RUN WILL HAVE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSHERIC INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE OREGON CASCADES AND OREGON EAST SIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THIS WEEKEND. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LIGHTNING TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING BUT THIS
PATTERN WILL BE PERSISTENT. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ONE OF THE
LARGE FIRES IN FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE OREGON-
CALIFORNIA BORDER COULD INITIATE ITS OWN THUNDERSTORM WITH
PYROCUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING.

HAVE CONTINUED AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT EXPECT THAT SMOKE WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS NO WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND COOLING WILL OCCUR.

THE PATTERN CHANGES TO MORE MONSOONAL AS THE NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF
ALL SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OREGON BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
GFS PUSHES THIS MOISTURE FARTHER WEST THAN THE ECMWF. THE MODELS
BOTH SHOW INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
LESS INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND IN THE
MONSOON AIRMASS ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THIS COMBINED
WITH SMOKE COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN FORECAST SO
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE ASSESSED.
SANDLER

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/18Z TAFS...

ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP IN THE
EARLY EVENING WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH AND NEAR
BROOKINGS SOUTHWARD.  INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF TURBULENCE WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL IN
AREAS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD IN SOUTHERN OREGON.
CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1030 AM PDT 1 AUG 2014...

THE CURRENT PATTERN...WITH SOME SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION...WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A THERMAL
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN STEEP WIND
WAVE DOMINATED SEAS AND AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS FROM CAPE
BLANCO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO
GALES WITH VERY STEEP SEAS THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON THE GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO POSTPONE THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS. IN ANY
CASE...THE GALES WILL BE LOW END.
CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ376.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
721 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

ORZ031-020300-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY OR-
721 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM
PDT...

AT 718 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS VALLEY SAND DUNES...
OR 64 MILES NORTH OF LAKEVIEW...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN
LAKE COUNTY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4284 12009 4284 12046 4336 12066 4335 11989
      4320 11989
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 194DEG 18KT 4313 12030

WRIGHT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
758 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

ORZ031-020330-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY OR-
758 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM
PDT...

AT 756 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS VALLEY SAND
DUNES...OR 77 MILES NORTH OF LAKEVIEW...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN
LAKE COUNTY.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4317 12017 4322 12041 4362 12027 4362 11997
TIME...MOT...LOC 0257Z 196DEG 45KT 4331 12024

DW