Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Medford, OR

160 
WWUS56 KMFR 300127
SVSMFR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
627 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ORC035-300145-
/O.CON.KMFR.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140730T0145Z/
KLAMATH OR-
627 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM PDT
FOR CENTRAL KLAMATH COUNTY...

AT 623 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 
OVER CENTRAL KLAMATH COUNTY...OR 21 MILES EAST OF CRATER 
LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 97 BETWEEN 
MILE MARKER 212 AND 223 MAY BE IMPACTED.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4310 12183 4303 12155 4282 12174 4290 12195
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 209DEG 8KT 4301 12174

$$

MAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
310 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT LIGHTNING DETECTION HAD INDICATED ABOUT
100 LIGHTNING STRIKES SCATTERED ABOUT THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 246
PM PDT. WHILE STORM MOVEMENT HAS BEEN GENERALLY SLOW TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 MILES PER HOUR, MANY LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEAR TO
BE FALLING OUTSIDE OF RAIN CORES, LIKELY BECAUSE THE ANVILS OF THE
STORMS ARE BEING BLOWN AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER SPEED
THAN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE STORMS, AROUND 30 KNOTS. ALSO,
STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY PULSEY, IN THAT INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE
COLLAPSING WITHIN ABOUT A HALF HOUR OF FORMING.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS SISKIYOU COUNTY AND FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNT SHASTA AREA AND OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND JACKSON COUNTY, THEY
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED IF THEY DO INDEED OCCUR.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE,
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FIRE STARTS
FROM LIGHTNING.

FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS
IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE MOUNT SHASTA FIRE WEATHER ZONE, WHERE
SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY TO CAUSE STORM FORMATION TO BE DOWNWIND OF
THE VOLCANO AND OTHER PEAKS. A 500MB TROUGH, THOUGH SUBTLE, WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. DUE TO A BIT OF A JOG WESTWARD IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW,
EXPECT THAT WEDNESDAY IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY.

WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY, BUT ONLY IN AREAS WHERE
MODEL LIFTED INDICES ARE -3C OR LOWER. ALTOGETHER, SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD, THOUGH
THE EUROPEAN MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A THREAT MAY STILL EXIST ON
THE WEST SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY.

ALTOGETHER, IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, DETAILS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN. DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL
SLIGHTLY. IN OTHER WORDS, DAY TO DAY CHANGES WILL BE SUBTLE. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/18Z TAFS...

AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALL ALONG THE COAST AND
IN THE COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF CAPE BLANCO. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED THIS AFTERNOON...FOCUSED MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS. STORMS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND STRATUS WILL RETURN TO
COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH ABOUT THE SAME OR A BIT LESS INLAND EXTENT
AS THIS MORNING...REACHING INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT 29 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN...WITH SOME
SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION...WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS AND
AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. THROUGH MID-WEEK, THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MORESO ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS MAY INCREASE TO GALES WITH VERY STEEP SEAS LATE
IN THE WEEK FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH.
/SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621>625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ORZ617-621>625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-623>625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ280-281-284-285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
  FOR PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
  FOR PZZ350-370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.

BTL/SBN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
559 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ORZ029-030-300145-
KLAMATH BASIN OR-NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE
COUNTY OR-
559 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KLAMATH COUNTY UNTIL 645
PM PDT...

AT 556 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF KLAMATH MARSH...OR 17 MILES
EAST OF CRATER LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL
KLAMATH COUNTY...BUT ALSO HIGHWAY 97 BETWEEN MILEPOSTS 217 AND 227.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4314 12181 4302 12154 4280 12175 4289 12197
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 205DEG 10KT 4296 12180

MAS