Alert archive / Oregon / Red Flag Warnings in 2014
Red Flag Warning 24, NWS Medford, OR
NWS Medford, OR issued this red flag warning at Aug 3, 2014, 11:28 AM PDT for 8 counties in Oregon; Modoc County, Siskiyou County, California. It took effect at Aug 4, 2014, 11:00 AM PDT. It was in force for 11 hr. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 3, 2014, 11:28 AM PDT (18:28 UTC)
- In effect from
- Aug 4, 2014, 11:00 AM PDT
- Expired
- Aug 4, 2014, 10:07 PM PDT
- In force
- 11 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Medford, OR
Counties Modoc County, CA, Siskiyou County, CA, Curry County, OR, Douglas County, OR, Harney County, OR, Jackson County, OR, Josephine County, OR, Klamath County, OR, Lake County, OR, Lane County, OR
The radar
The Medford radar (KMAX), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 6:27 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 1.25 | 11 E Lorella, OR | SOME DRAINAGE ACROSS HIGHWAY 31 AT MILEPOST 75 FROM TYPICALLY DRY STREAMBEDS. HEAVY RAIN DURATION 45 MINUTES. OBSERVER LOCATION 9 MILES NNW OF SILVER LAKE OR MP 40 HWY 31. |
| Aug 4, 7:15 PM PDT | HAIL 0.88 | 1 Nnw Merrill, OR | CORRECTION: TIME CHANGED FROM 9:15 PM TO 7:15 PM. SPOTTER REPORTS HAIL ABOUT 0.8 INCHES ACROSS WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS AND SOME DECENT RAIN. NO DAMAGES OR FLOODING REPORTED. HAIL DURATION 30 MINUTES. OBSERVER LOCATION 2M N MERRILL ( FIRE DISPATCH #). |
| Aug 4, 7:34 PM PDT | HAIL 0.88 | Merrill, OR | LOTS OF DIME AND NICKLE SIZED HAIL. HEAVY RAIN IS PRODUCING PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS. |
| Aug 4, 9:15 PM PDT | HAIL 0.88 | 3 Ene Merrill, OR | CALLED SPOTTER. HE REPORTS HAIL ABOUT 0.8 INCHES ACROSS WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS AND SOME DECENT RAIN. NO DAMAGES OR FLOODING REPORTED. HAIL DURATION 30 MINUTES. OBSERVER LOCATION 5 MILES EAST OF MERRILL. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Medford/Jackson, OR (KMFR), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1669 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 15 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 2 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 60 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
895 WWUS86 KMFR 031828 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 1128 AM PDT SUN AUG 3 2014 CAZ280>282-284-285-ORZ617-621>625-041200- /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0024.140804T1800Z-140805T0900Z/ /O.EXT.KMFR.FW.A.0022.140805T0900Z-140806T0600Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA- TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY- SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY- SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT- WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 1128 AM PDT SUN AUG 3 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 280...281...282... 284...285...617...621...622...623...624 AND 625... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 280...281...282...284...285...617...621...622...623...624 AND 625... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM PDT TUESDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 280...281...282...284...285...617...621... 622...623...624 AND 625. * THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. * OUTFLOW WINDS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WITH 30 TO 50 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS MAY RESULT IN NUMEROUS NEW FIRE STARTS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND RAPID RUNOFF ON NEW BURN SCARS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND/OR MUDSLIDES. THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING IN THE AREA MAY ALSO HAMPER EXISTING FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$ SPILDE VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
6 follow-up statements
678 WWUS86 KMFR 041058 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 358 AM PDT MON AUG 4 2014 CAZ280>282-284-285-ORZ617-621>625-042300- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.140804T1800Z-140805T0900Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0022.140805T0900Z-140806T0600Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA- TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY- SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY- SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT- WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 358 AM PDT MON AUG 4 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 280...281...282... 284...285...617...621...622...623... 624 AND 625... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 280...281...282... 284...285...617...621...622...623... 624 AND 625... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD CONTINUES THE RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM PDT TUESDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 280...281...282...284...285...617... 621... 622...623...624 AND 625. * THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. * OUTFLOW WINDS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WITH 30 TO 50 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS MAY RESULT IN NUMEROUS NEW FIRE STARTS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND RAPID RUNOFF ON NEW BURN SCARS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND/OR MUDSLIDES. THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING IN THE AREA MAY ALSO HAMPER EXISTING FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$ SANDLER VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
657 WWUS86 KMFR 042052 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 152 PM PDT MON AUG 4 2014 ORZ617-621-622-050900- /O.CAN.KMFR.FW.A.0022.140805T0900Z-140806T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-140805T0900Z/ UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY- 152 PM PDT MON AUG 4 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617... 621 AND 622... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617...621 AND 622... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY. * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 622...621 AND 617 * THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. * OUTFLOW WINDS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WITH 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. * IMPACTS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS MAY RESULT IN NUMEROUS NEW FIRE STARTS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND RAPID RUNOFF ON NEW BURN SCARS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND/OR MUDSLIDES. THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING IN THE AREA MAY ALSO HAMPER EXISTING FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ ORZ620-050900- /O.EXA.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-140805T0900Z/ WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY- 152 PM PDT MON AUG 4 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 620... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY. * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONE 620 * THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WITH 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. * IMPACTS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS MAY RESULT IN NUMEROUS NEW FIRE STARTS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND RAPID RUNOFF ON NEW BURN SCARS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND/OR MUDSLIDES. THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING IN THE AREA MAY ALSO HAMPER EXISTING FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ CAZ280>282-284-285-ORZ623>625-050900- /O.EXT.KMFR.FW.A.0022.140805T1800Z-140806T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-140805T0900Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA- TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY- SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT- WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 152 PM PDT MON AUG 4 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280... 281...282...284...285...623...624 AND 625... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...282...284...285...623...624 AND 625... THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...282...284...285 ...623...624 AND 625. * THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ISOLATED OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE. THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WITH 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. * IMPACTS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS MAY RESULT IN NUMEROUS NEW FIRE STARTS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND RAPID RUNOFF ON NEW BURN SCARS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND/OR MUDSLIDES. THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING IN THE AREA MAY ALSO HAMPER EXISTING FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$ VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
031 WWUS86 KMFR 042058 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 158 PM PDT MON AUG 4 2014 CAZ280>282-284-285-ORZ623>625-050900- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-140805T0900Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0022.140805T1800Z-140806T0600Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA- TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY- SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT- WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 158 PM PDT MON AUG 4 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280... 281...282...284...285...623...624 AND 625... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280... 281...282...284...285...623...624 AND 625... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...282...284...285 623...624 ...AND 625. * THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ISOLATED OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE. THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WITH 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. * IMPACTS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS MAY RESULT IN NUMEROUS NEW FIRE STARTS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND RAPID RUNOFF ON NEW BURN SCARS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND/OR MUDSLIDES. THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING IN THE AREA MAY ALSO HAMPER EXISTING FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$ ORZ617-620>622-050900- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-140805T0900Z/ UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST- WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY- SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY- 158 PM PDT MON AUG 4 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617... 621 AND 622... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 622...621 AND 617 * THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. * OUTFLOW WINDS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WITH 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. * IMPACTS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS MAY RESULT IN NUMEROUS NEW FIRE STARTS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND RAPID RUNOFF ON NEW BURN SCARS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND/OR MUDSLIDES. THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING IN THE AREA MAY ALSO HAMPER EXISTING FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
330 WWUS86 KMFR 042103 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 203 PM PDT MON AUG 4 2014 CAZ280>282-284-285-ORZ623>625-050915- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-140805T0900Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0022.140805T1800Z-140806T0600Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA- TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY- SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT- WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 203 PM PDT MON AUG 4 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280... 281...282...284...285...623...624 AND 625... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...282...284...285...623...624 AND 625... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...282...284...285... 623...624 AND 625 * THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ISOLATED OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE. THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WITH 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. * IMPACTS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS MAY RESULT IN NUMEROUS NEW FIRE STARTS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND RAPID RUNOFF ON NEW BURN SCARS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND/OR MUDSLIDES. THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING IN THE AREA MAY ALSO HAMPER EXISTING FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$ ORZ617-620>622-050900- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-140805T0900Z/ UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST- WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY- SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY- 203 PM PDT MON AUG 4 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617... 621 AND 622... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 622...621...617. * THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. * OUTFLOW WINDS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WITH 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. * IMPACTS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS MAY RESULT IN NUMEROUS NEW FIRE STARTS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND RAPID RUNOFF ON NEW BURN SCARS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND/OR MUDSLIDES. THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING IN THE AREA MAY ALSO HAMPER EXISTING FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
524 WWUS86 KMFR 042133 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 233 PM PDT MON AUG 4 2014 ORZ620-042245- /O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-140805T0900Z/ WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY- 233 PM PDT MON AUG 4 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 620... ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 620 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. $$ CAZ280>282-284-285-ORZ623>625-050945- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-140805T0900Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0022.140805T1800Z-140806T0600Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA- TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY- SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT- WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 233 PM PDT MON AUG 4 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280... 281...282...284...285...623...624 AND 625... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...282...284...285...623...624 AND 625... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...282...284...285... 623...624 AND 625. * THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ISOLATED OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE. THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WITH 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. * IMPACTS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS MAY RESULT IN NUMEROUS NEW FIRE STARTS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND RAPID RUNOFF ON NEW BURN SCARS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND/OR MUDSLIDES. THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING IN THE AREA MAY ALSO HAMPER EXISTING FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$ ORZ617-621-622-050900- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-140805T0900Z/ UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY- 233 PM PDT MON AUG 4 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617... 621 AND 622... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 622...621 AND 617. * THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. * OUTFLOW WINDS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WITH 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. * IMPACTS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS MAY RESULT IN NUMEROUS NEW FIRE STARTS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND RAPID RUNOFF ON NEW BURN SCARS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND/OR MUDSLIDES. THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING IN THE AREA MAY ALSO HAMPER EXISTING FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
982 WWUS86 KMFR 050507 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 1007 PM PDT MON AUG 4 2014 CAZ280>282-284-285-ORZ623>625-051715- /O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-140805T0900Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0022.140805T1800Z-140806T0600Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA- TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY- SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT- WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 1007 PM PDT MON AUG 4 2014 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280... 281...282...284...285...623...624 AND 625... ...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR TONIGHT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...282...284...285...623...624 AND 625... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...282...284... 285...623...624 AND 625. * THUNDERSTORMS: STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED TO MOSTLY SHOWERS THIS EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WITH 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. * IMPACTS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COMBINED WITH EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS MAY RESULT IN NUMEROUS NEW FIRE STARTS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND RAPID RUNOFF ON NEW BURN SCARS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND/OR MUDSLIDES. THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING IN THE AREA MAY ALSO HAMPER EXISTING FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$ ORZ617-621-622-050615- /O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-140805T0900Z/ UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY- 1007 PM PDT MON AUG 4 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617...621 AND 622... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TONIGHT. EVENING STORMS REMAINED MAINLY OVER AND EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST AND SOUTH OF THE SISKIYOUS. ISOLATED STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. $$ STAVISH VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Aug 3, 9:13 AM PDT, 2 hours 15 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 3, 9:13 AM PDT, 2 hours 15 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
913 AM PDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TODAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND COMBINES WITH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. SO,
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON, IN MOUNTAIN AREAS IN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THOUGH WILL BE OVER NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY
AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGE AREA OF
SMOKE OVER THE CWA FROM AREA FIRES. THIS WIDESPREAD AREA OF SMOKE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. DAYTIME
MIXING AND INCREASED FIRE ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON, MAY BRING
MORE OF THE SMOKE INTO THE VALLEYS TODAY.
THEN MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK SHOWING A LOW OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MOVING NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AND SHIFTING INTO
EAST CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND WEST CENTRAL NEVADA NEAR THE TAHOE
AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT, MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA . SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES MORE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO AROUND
1.25 INCHES OVER THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. OF CONCERN WILL BE WEATHER BURN SCAR AREAS COULD SEE A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MONDAY
NIGHT, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LOW BECOMES STRETCHED WITH SOME OF THE
ENERGY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST AND A MORE ELONGATED BOUNDARY OVER
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. EXPECT FORCING TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASED MOISTURE MAY BRING MORE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/12Z TAFS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESSION
OF IFR CIGS AT THE COAST CLEARING BY NOON THEN RETURNING AGAIN THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SMOKE FROM AREA FIRES
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY IN AREAS TO 1-2SM INLAND. ALSO, AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES SHOULD DEVELOP AND
REMAIN ISOLATED. LOCAL VIS 2-5SM IN THESE STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN
AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS NEAR STORMS. /MS
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT 3 AUG 2014...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE INTO STRONG THERMAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA PRODUCING GALES SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. LITTLE CHANGE
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK. /MS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM PDT SUN AUG 3 2014/
UPDATE...UPDATED FIRE. MTS
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH THIS MORNING TO
REMOVE TODAY AS WE ONLY ANTICIPATE ISOLATED COVERAGE. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPMENT AREA IS FROM FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY ACROSS THE SOUTH OREGON CASCADES INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH
COUNTY. THIS INCLUDES POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO A NUMBER OF FIRES.
MAINTAIN AWARENESS FOR SHIFTING AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL COOL TEMPERATURES AND RAISE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
CONSIDERABLY VERSUS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
ALSO LOWER THE HAINES INDEX REDUCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE. SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY HOWEVER
COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SOME CONCERN RISING FOR FLASH
FLOODING ON SCARS. DESPITE INCOMING HIGH MOISTURE, WITH CRITICAL
FUEL DRYNESS AND A SIMILAR DAY TUES VS MON, HAVE EXTENDED THE FIRE
WX WATCH FOR LIGHTNING INTO TUESDAY. COOLER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MTS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM PDT SUN AUG 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY.
THE NAM AND GFS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION POTENTIAL
FOR TODAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND LIFTED INDICES
DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER
PRESENT, THEREFORE DOUBT MUCH WILL HAPPEN. RIGHT NOW, LAKE COUNTY
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING ANYTHING. STEERING WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, THEREFORE ANY STORMS WILL
BE SLOW MOVERS. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WHAT'S CATCHING MY ATTENTION IS THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN NORTHEAST
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY BRINGING INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
UNLIKE THE PAST EVENTS WHERE SHORTWAVES WERE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA, THIS IS AN ACTUAL UPPER LOW. THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND WE COULD END UP GETTING A MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM EVENT, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN CAL AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTERLY ON MONDAY AND
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO DRIFT WEST OF THE CASCADES INTO THE
ROGUE VALLEY.
THE ONE THING THAT COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AS THE MOISTURE MOVES NORTH. IF
THERE'S SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER, THEN WE COULD END UP GETTING PLENTY
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER IT'S DIFFICULT TO
BELIEVE THAT WE WON'T SEE A LOT OF LIGHTNING. ONE BIT OF GOOD NEWS
IS WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE WE'LL GET WETTING STORMS. THE MODELS ARE LATCHING ON TO
PRETTY HEFTY QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL. THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY INCREASING
PWATS ON MONDAY AND PEAKING OUT CLOSE TO 1.20 INCHES BY MONDAY
EVENING. THUS I INCREASED POPS AND BUMPED UP QPF AMOUNTS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE, INSTABILITY
AND SHORTWAVES PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT, WE'LL GET
PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER, THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OF NOTE THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE EC HINT AT A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP IN NORTHERN CAL AND
SOUTHEAST LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES TUESDAY WHICH IF CORRECT COULD
LESSEN THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER IT WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THOSE SAME AREAS WHICH COULD LEAD TO ROCK OR
MUDSLIDES ON BURN SCARS FROM THE EXISTING FIRES IN NORTHERN CAL. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THE MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS GIVEN
IT'S A COUPLE OF DAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
COULD GET KNOCKED DOWN SOME DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER, BUT STILL
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
THE GFS AND EC DIFFER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WIT THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. IN CONTRAST
THE EC IS SLOWER AND KEEP THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WHICH IF
CORRECT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ617-621>625.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR PZZ356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ376.
CCThe office that day
Everything else NWS Medford, OR issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 5:05 PM PDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MFR | Klamath, Lake | 25 min |
| Aug 2, 6:02 PM PDT | Special Weather Statement | MFR | Deschutes | 43 min |
| Aug 2, 6:56 PM PDT | Special Weather Statement | MFR | Deschutes | 49 min |
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Oregon, 2014Red Flag Warnings in California, 2014Every red flag warning in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.